Author: COB6

A couple of days ago I posted my opinion of what is happening in the tightening polls. I stand by my opinion that this is an orchestrated mechanism that the left uses to suppress conservative turn out and enthusiasm.

My advice was to ignore the polls and vote. I signed off with this statement.

Hell I got an email this morning claiming that New Jersey is in play!

Apparently this loyal reader felt like I was mocking him which of course I was because he sent a long but informative follow up email.

The general idea of his dissertation was a mathematical model using what British polling experts have named the “Shy Tory Factor”.

As I said in the earlier post, Polling is big business and the industry is held together only by its ability to be reliably correct. A phenomenon started in Britain in the early 90’s that showed polling was routinely under-calculating Tory (Conservative) votes.

In 1992 the whole industry was rocked when almost all of the polls had Conservatives and Labour within one point. The election however showed Conservatives with a 7.6% margin of victory.

The polling industry’s governing body called an emergency council to try to identify and rectify the predictive algorithms that were in standard use. They discovered that Conservatives were far less likely to answer polling questions and in particular exit polls. They developed a fairly complex model that included several factors but it also included an assumption that Labour will poll approximately 3% higher than reality and Conservatives will poll approximately 3% lower. This adjustment has brought the British polls back into a very accurate range.

Remember the exit polling in 2004? Kerry was supposed to be running away with it.

Using this model in the map above two things appears evident.

a.) New Jersey is in play
b.) We will not know who won Tuesday night

Economic doom and gloom…Check.
Afghanistan War quagmire…Check.
Sen. Stevens corruption…Check.
Encouraging Obama voter turn out…Check.
Trumpeting for gay marriage…Check.

Did I miss something?

Oh yeah, that. The fact that Obama’s aunt is an illegal alien absconder who resides in squalor (provided by the government and she is not entitled to) who also illegally contributed to Obama’s campaign…well that’s just a distraction.

H/T Sweetness and Light

UPDATE: I wonder if she is registered to vote? Anybody want to take a guess?

There is a close race for Senator battling out in the Tarheel state between Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Libby Dole. Dole released a commercial that has the Hagan camp outraged.

“I think Elizabeth Dole has just gone to the lowest of the lows,” Hagan said of the ad during an appearance on a talk show on WPTF-AM in Raleigh, North Carolina. “This is an attack on my Christian faith.”
Hagan, who described herself as a Sunday school teacher and an elder at a Presbyterian church in Greensboro, North Carolina, urged Dole to “pull this kind of despicable ad.”

The ad practically calls Hagan “Godless”. This is a very nasty charge in a solid bible-belt North Carolina.

I don’t think there should be a religious test for political office and I think politicians on both sides of the aisle historically beef up their religious bona fides before running for office. This is particularly true in the Deep South.

Being a Sunday School teacher and church elder, it is no surprise that Hagan was outraged. Unfortunately for Hagan, the Dole camp was more than ready to defend the ad.

Lawyers representing Dole and her campaign defended the ad Thursday as “100 percent factually accurate and truthful.” The campaign for the GOP incumbent said it based its claims on Hagan’s attendance at a fundraiser in the home of a GAPAC adviser.

“Kay Hagan attended a fundraiser event in Massachusetts in September held in the home of two anti-religion activists, Wendy Kaminer and her lawyer husband, Woody Kaplan,” Dole’s attorneys said in a letter to Hagan’s lawyer.

They described Kaplan as a founder and advisory board member of the GAPAC. The letter said Kaplan and Kaminer were advisory board members of The Secular Coalition for America, which it described as “the national lobby for atheists, humanists, freethinkers and other nontheistic Americans with the unique mission of protecting their civil rights.”
The lawyers also said Kaplan gave $2,300 to Hagan’s campaign.

Do I think Kay Hagan is an atheist? No, I think she is a secular politician who will do anything to get elected.

I don’t personally have any animosity against atheists or Presbyterians but I do think that they are mutually exclusive of each other.

Kay Hagan can not be an active Presbyterian and cavorting with atheists at the same time and should not be surprised if someone points out the obvious hypocrisy and lack or moral compass.

The short answer is no, they are correcting. Stay with me here; there is a difference with a distinction.

This happens every election cycle particularly when the Republican is in the lead. And I do believe that it is an intentional conspiracy to favor the Democrat.

Here’s how it works. Inflate the Democrat numbers by over-sampling, twisting internals or just out right lying. This gives the Democrat the momentum and advantage with bandwagon voters. As the election nears, the polls will tighten slightly and the Democrats will swarm the airwaves to push early voting. When was the last speech you heard from Obama not pressing early voting?

Why does the polls tighten so late? By design silly. Polling in this country is a big money industry so by election day they have to be as accurate as possible to preserve the credibility of the pollsters. Oddly, this practice works every time.

Each polling group brags about how accurate they were in the last cycle but do not publicize how wildly wrong they were just ten days out.

Don’t be distracted by the rhetoric, watch the actions of candidates. At this point, their internal polls dictate evry action.

Today Obama was in Iowa. We’re four days out and he is in a state where he supposedly has a 10 point advantage?

Meanwhile, the McCain camp is carpeting Pennsylvania where they are supposedly down 10 points?

Real Clear Politics has Obama with 311 electoral votes with ZERO toss-up states!

My suggestion. Ignore polls and make sure you vote.

Hell I got an email this morning claiming that New Jersey is in play!

You can now join Team Sarah. I strongly encourage you to join and add us all as friends.

It’s been 25 years since the Phillies won the World Series so a celebration was certainly in order. And they did.

By now, you’ve heard that the Philadelphia Phillies have won the World Series, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 4 games to 1 after winning a delayed fifth game 4-3 last night. Congratulations to the team. Your city doesn’t deserve it.

Because nothing says World Series champions like overturned cars:

Michelle Malkin has video of the rioting.

Does any thinking person see a peaceful celebration should Obama win? And just what kind of hell will break out if he loses?

I’d bet there is not a large urban area police department in the country that is not on alert for election night.

Actually not so much a prediction as a statement of the obvious.

Ok, shall we start the countdown to the riots? Win or lose shit is gonna get busted up. That said, if I lived and owned anything in a Liberal Urban City I would pack the shit that means something to me, up my insurance, and get the f**k out for a week.

Overreaching? LA had riots over a drug addict asshole getting a beat down.

A woman this eloquent must be considered carefully.

She does have an excellent point. Things are going to get busted bad. I point to the campus of every NCAA basketball team that has won the tournament recently.

If Obama wins the rioting, looting and destruction will be significant but will likely be confined to election night.

If he should lose, the chaos will last for days and the destruction will be unparalleled.

Nothing says “Hope and Change” like rioting and mayhem.

Who knows, it may tank again tomorrow but it is a good question to ponder. I have been an active trader for quite some time so I know that sometimes fairly small things can impact the Dow. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low but the spike happened anyway.

There a few very credible possibilities in this case:

a. The Fed is going to announce a rate cut tomorrow.
b. New home sales went up and some may be hoping that the bottom has been found.
c. Gas prices are plummeting and it’s affecting every industry.
d. The dollar is gaining strength pulling investment back home.

All of these have happened before and have affected the Dow every time…but never 900 frigging points!

What does Wall Street like better than lower taxes? Divided government.

Do these investors know something that we don’t? And the MSM polls aren’t telling us or at least suppressing deep in the internals?

If Obama is really up 10 points in Pennsylvania, why is McCain and Bill Clinton storming the state? Even if McCain is grasping, why would Obama use a weapon as powerful as Bill Clinton in Pennsylvania instead of much closer polling states like North Carolina (+1.5), Indiana (+1.3) or Missouri (+0.6)?

He’s using the most effective campaigner in recent history in a state with a 10 point lead that offers 21 electoral votes instead of three very close states that represent 37 electoral votes? Does this make sense to anyone?

The Biden selection has been a complete disaster and no thinking person in the Obama camp can defend his selection at this point. Yet, he is their primary voice in Florida and its 27 electoral votes?

Interesting times in deed.