So, Russian forces are massing on the Ukraine border, 189 Ukrainian military bases have Russian flags flying over the facilities and a top Ukrainian Air Force chief is being imprisoned, all according to Fox News and the Associated Press. And, according to the Associated Press, a White House spokesman says that it’s “likely” that the Russians will finish what they started and occupy the rest of the Ukraine.
Deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken says Russia seems to be trying intimidate Ukrainians by massing thousands of troops along the border.
But Blinken also tells CNN’s “State of the Union” that “it’s possible they are preparing to move in.”
He says the U.S. is looking at providing military assistance to Ukraine. But he also says “it’s very unlikely to change Russia’s calculus and prevent an invasion.”
Ya know why, Mr. Blinken? Because the Russians knew from the beginning that there would be no measurable response from the US. Remember when we invaded Iraq in 2003 how Qaddafi surrendered his chemical weapons stores just because he believed that the US was coming for him next? We hadn’t so much as pointed an M16 in his direction, when Qaddafi decided that supporting terror had placed him in our sights. Of course, the bombing of his tent eighteen years before didn’t hurt either. How’s that for calculus.
I’m still waiting for shots to be fired.
Do Ukrainians even want sovereignty? It sure doesn’t seem like it.
I suspect that the new Ukrainian government feels “abandoned” and thrown out to the wolves. I don’t blame them. I suspect the military commanders are withdrawing to consolidate their forces around the parts of the country that Russian troops haven’t already seized. Should Russia continue their advance west, those Ukrainian forces are likely being redeployed to Western Ukraine to consolidate what’s left of their military (of those who haven’t defected-yet) since they were originally spread too thin to mount an effective defense against a well-armed and much larger Russian force. It’s also possible that they will later form the bulk of a guerrilla campaign against the Russians. That’s really the best way to combat Russia, as the Russian military has an extremely rigid system that to this day still has the same problems adapting to rapidly evolving combat environments as they did in Afghanistan, Ingushtia, Dagestan and Chechnya.
They have a fairly large military with plenty of jets.
If they didn’t fight when troops showed up on their doorstep I don’t think they are going to fight at all.
Maybe I just don’t get Europe. I don’t think the United States would just allow the Chinese military to stroll up into San Francisco and occupy it saying they are protecting the illegal Chinese that populate the area.
With all the high profile defections however it seems like their military wasn’t in it anyway.
Problem is solved though because Obama ordered joint military training op with Ukraine!
True, but they’re not as large as Russia, not to mention their forces were spread out a little too much. It looks like they feel abandoned and probably have the invasion of Georgia in their back of their minds…
Used correctly, though, there is still hope for Ukraine. Remember, the Finns defeated the Russians despite being outnumbered 40:1 and not having a lick of heavy equipment in the 1930s. Proportionally speaking, Russia’s command structure, equipment, and enlisted structure isn’t much better than it was then. I think the Ukrainians might just surprise is.
I dont know what which winter war you are thinking of. But the one i read had the Finns resisting valiantly until the Russians got warm clothes and heavy artillery to the front. Then they chewed right through the Finnish army because they lacked reserves and couldn’t replace tired men and broken positions. Heck the russians got more than they wanted in the war then was the original goal. Granted they suffered a lot of causalities but I doubt Stalin cared even a the ultra high of a million is not that much.
I’m with Auto on this, because in a stand-up conventional fight the Russian Army, the Ukrainians will get chewed up and spit out just like the Georgians did in 2008. The only chance they have is to go unconventional and execute a guerrilla campaign. Barring that, their chances of avoiding assimilation is rather bleak.
Ukrainian troops in Crimea were ordered not to fire. The theory was that if they did, Putin would use this as a pre-text for launching a total invasion and taking Kiev. In any case, the Ukrainians in Crimea were greatly outnumbered. Generally speaking the Ukrainian army was undermined by the Russian stooge Yanukovich.
Well, there have been reports of shots fired when the Ruskies crashed one airbase gate, but there may be more of that happening that we haven’t heard about.
It’s not like Putin hasn’t telegraphed this at all.
All the Russians need is one single shot fired by the Ukrainians at any part of the Russian military. Then it’s game over. The Russians will use that as a pretext for the invasion of at least the eastern half, and probably all, of the Ukraine.
This is a non-issue. The ukraine is already gone. Putin is just waiting for the invite to come in and calm the riots that Russian agents will have started to begin with.
The problem is that he has now ran out of map. The NATO expansion of 2004 and the EU expansion of 2007 guarantees only one of two possible outcomes:
1. Putin is out of room to invade and stops with a mini Coldwar in place.
or
2. World War III
If the latter option don’t throw away your old border treat/REFORGER maps. The hoarde will consume Poland and Eastern Germany before we can stop it.
Pretty cheery scenario?
So do we keep the map of the world before 1989, or after 1989?
I have both, COB6. Rand McNally atlas and ‘Paris: 1919’.
Cheery? Yeah, you’re just a ray of fucking sunshine, COB6. I bet you love giving us old bastards flashbacks, eh?
Just in case anyone was wondering what the reaction is from bodaprez, here you go: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/obama-flies-europe-shaken-putins-bold-strategy-n59851?ocid=msnhp&pos=1
Shaken up? SHAKEN UP????? He’d better be trembling in his shoes and afraid to show his bony ass outside his office to answer questions.
If this gets worse, I will happily blame it all on him, because I DID NOT VOTE FOR THAT ASSHOLE.
“All the Russians need is one single shot fired by [anyone] at any part of the Russian military. Then it’s game over. The Russians will use that as a pretext for the invasion of at least the eastern half, and probably all, of the Ukraine.”
Ask Poland about the Gliewitz incident or the Finns about the shelling of Mainila. A false flag incident wouldn’t be unreasonable about now.
CAs6: they might not need any false flag operation. If a majority in an eastern region protest strongly enough, the Ukrainian government may institute a crackdown – and create an incident in the process.
Anyone expecting the borders in eastern Europe to remain static forever is deluding themselves. They never have been. And given the ethnic mishmash you find in some parts of eastern Europe, that should be no surprise.
We in the US see separation along ethnic lines as a bad thing. However, it’s the way the vast majority of the world lives. It underlies much if not the vast majority of today’s conflicts. Even the Islamic Sunni-Shiite conflict has a huge ethnic component (Arab v. Persian).
My point is that this is predictable. I doubt Russia will try to reclaim the entire Ukraine. But if the eastern portions clamor for reunification with Russia – and if a local majority of those regions want reunification with Russia – then they may well use “self-determination” as justification for making that happen.
What about the parts that were USSR, but not so close to eastern Europe, e.g., Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan?
They’re doing quite well on their own now. I don’t think they’d take kindly to being told they’re back in the USSR.
Especially not Kazakhstan.
Interesting you call out Kazakhstan, Ex-PH2. Of all the Central Asian countries, that’s the only one I see that might be problematic.
IMO, Russia doesn’t want most of central Asia back. It’s not culturally linked to Russia and is largely non-Russian (and non-Slavic) in population.
However, Kazakhstan has a population that is nearly 1/4 ethnic Russian. And that ethnic Russian population is largely in the northern portion of Kazakhstan near the Russian border.
Should that Russian population in northern Kazakhstan become restive and start clamoring for reunion for Russia, that could provide the impetus for Russia to do the same in that part of central Asia.
Or maybe not. My crystal ball is dirty today.
Kazakhstan has a fairly stable enconomy and bills itself as the place to do business in that part of the world. That’s what I was looking at when I brought that up.
Tajikistan is more of a climber/hiker destination, because they sit in the Knot of the Pamirs, which as some impressive mountain climbing and some spectacular landscapes – arid, sparse, and ancient as hell, but full of old ruins and neolithic leftovers.
Ex-PH2: Kazakhstan indeed seems relatively stable and (of the former central Asian Soviet republics) in the best shape. However, it’s also the only one with a relatively large Slavic minority population (about 23% Russian – about 26% if the small Ukrainian minority is included). In particular, the Russian minority seems concentrated along the northern 1/4 of Kazakhstan.
I don’t think Russia particularly wants the Islamic areas of central Asia back – too much trouble. But it’s not beyond question that they might want the more “Russified” parts of Kazakhstan back.
And it didn’t take long for other sovereign nations to start popping up as being the next potential target for a Russian invasion. Here, we see Moldova mentioned, which has a Russian-speaking enclave in Transdniester that would present a similar pretext that Vlad used to justify invading the Crimean Peninsula. In fact, the additional Russian forces in the region are actually in striking distance of Moldova. If nobody lifted a finger over Ukraine, what do you think is going to happen with Moldova, or Estonia, which is another potential target?
I can easily see the same thing play out in Moldova with Vlad also playing the “we need to defend our fellow Russians” card. After that, Estonia and the bigger countries, like Poland for instance. Apparently, when Biden went to Poland, it appears an agreement was made to reestablish plans for the deployment of the missile defense shield originally agreed upon by the Bush administration. Although this is much welcomed news, I fear it’s too little, too late, because the shield should have never been cancelled in the first place-which likely would’ve deterred Putin from ever conducting a second invasion of a former eastern bloc country in the first place. The move also would’ve been better served as part of a two-pronged approach being employed while we boost our oil and natural gas production, give the keystone pipeline the green light and then make up what the EU would lose with Vlad shutting off the flow of oil and natural gas. SMDH
On Moldova:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10717260/Russian-troops-poised-to-run-into-Moldova-Nato-commander-warns.html
Excerpt:
“Fears that Russia could seize a second chunk of territory in eastern Europe grew on Sunday after Nato’s top commander warned that Moscow’s troops were poised to move into a pro-Moscow enclave of Moldova.
US Air Force General Philip Breedlove said that Russian troops massing on the eastern border of Ukraine were well-positioned to head to Transdniester, a Russian-speaking enclave that has declared independence from the rest of Moldova.
Transdniester’s people have long sought closer ties with Moscow, and to this day, the streets of the capital, Tiraspol, are decked out with statues of Lenin and other symbols of the Soviet Union.
Gen Breedlove said it would give President Vladimir Putin the perfect pretext to send troops in there as a “protection” force for ethnic Russians, just as he has done with his military annexation of Crimea.
“There is absolutely sufficient (Russian) force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniester if the decision was made to do that and that is very worrisome,” said Gen Breedlove, who is Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.”
On Estonia:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0321/Moscow-rattles-Estonia-with-talk-of-concern-for-its-Russian-population
“Russia says it is worried that a former Soviet republic isn’t doing enough to protect its large ethnic Russian population. But this time, the Kremlin is not talking about Ukraine.
It’s talking about Estonia.
The tiny Baltic state is a member of both NATO and the European Union. But the tone coming from their giant neighbor to the east – a neighbor that just occupied Crimea on similar grounds – has Estonians nervous.
“I believe that most Estonians are neither hysterical nor surprised by President Putin’s behavior in Crimea,” says Eiki Berg, a professor of international relations at the University of Tartu, Estonia’s leading research institution. “This is very similar to what Stalin’s Soviet Union did in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1939-40.”
Estonia enjoyed a brief independence between the world wars, ending with invasions by the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, and then the Soviets again, who occupied the country until 1991. The post-war occupation of Estonia brought deportations that affected nearly every family in this country of 1.3 million, and large numbers of ethnic Russians immigrated to Estonia, a legacy which is felt today in the country’s demography.”
On Poland and the reestablishment of the missile defense shield:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/22/us-poland-usa-military-idUSBREA2L0AU20140322
“The U.S. should increase its military presence in Poland and in other NATO members in central and eastern Europe in light of the Ukraine crisis, Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said on Saturday. Siemoniak said Washington was open towards the idea but detailed talks were yet to begin.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Poland last Tuesday and confirmed plans to deploy elements of a U.S. missile shield in Poland by 2018 and met with the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Bronislaw Komorowski.
“The U.S. must increase its presence in (central and eastern) Europe, also in Poland,” he said RMF FM radio.
“We will be talking about the details and I am happy that representatives of the U.S., the U.S. vice president are open towards these talks,” he said.
During Biden’s visit, Siemoniak said, “there was a clear expectation from our side, and also from all NATO allies (in) eastern Europe, that we expect a larger military presence of the U.S. and that this eastern flank of NATO must be strengthened.”
Given the crisis in Ukraine, he said, it was “natural” to conclude further talks with the U.S. would also involve the possibility of locating a U.S. base in the region.
Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula have made some NATO members in former communist central and eastern Europe anxious about their own security, prompting Washington to reassure them that it will protect them if needed,”
static-line (First I imagine from your screen name you were/are Airborne, am I right?)
But you made a well written statement of inner workings of the mind of Vlad Putin. It was an interesting read and I liked the links.
My humble input…I think we should go forward with the missile shield in Poland (we should truly have never backed off of that except for Obama’s absolute, pee his pants fear of Putin) However, it will not happen until after 2016. Obama does not have the balls to ride a bike without a helmet on White House property. Much less reinstate the missile commitment made to Poland. That I believe is why Biden referenced the 2018 time frame. Out of their administration’s realm of responsibility and lay it off on the next President, Republican or Democrat. Thanks again for the comments and news items.
Agreed
Given the timelines for missile defense in CONUS, the 2018 date may be as much driven by schedule realities as anything else. As I recall, the east and west coast missile defense installations were each projected to take 3-5 years to build/install/test/make operational.
However, by “punting” in 2009, the current administration has definitely made any political fallout from such European missile defense an issue for its successor.
Absolutely, and it pretty much set the conditions for the current situations from which we find ourselves. BTW, our msm is under-reporting what’s going on over there. Below is some additional info that our media outlets haven’t covered:
http://www.dw.de/ukrainian-soldier-killed-as-troops-storm-simferopol-base/a-17504202
Excerpt:
“Troops stormed a Ukrainian base on the outskirts of Simferopol on Tuesday, according to a Ukrainian military spokesman.
One Ukrainian officer was initially reported to have been wounded in the neck. The Interfax and Reuters news agencies reported that a soldier had been killed.
Kyiv, which blamed Russia for the attack, authorized Ukrainian troops to use weapons if necessary to defend themselves.
A reporter for the AFP news agency said a burst of gunfire had been heard from a Ukrainian military unit in a suburb northeast of Simferopol. Two ambulances were seen driving into the area.
Immediately after the incident, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said the conflict had moved from a political to a military stage.
“Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen,” said Yatseniuk. “This is a war crime.”
Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty with Crimean leaders that made the region part of the Russian Federation.”
Additional info on the above-incident:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=207458
Excerpt:
“One suspected sniper was detained late Tuesday and another on the run after two people were reportedly killed by sniper shots in Simferopol.
The Crimeainform news service quoted Crimea’s Interior Ministry as saying that situation at and around the shooting spot remained calm.
The victims, one from the Crimean self-defense units guarding a Ukrainian military facility in Simferopol and the other from the facility, were killed by sniper shots from a spot which had since been identified, said the ministry.”
Your points are well-made, Static-line, but you have to remember who it was that cancelled the missile defense line agreement with Poland, in the first place.
The imbecilic behavior going on in the current and very lame duck administration is the reason there is a Russian warship parked in Havana harbor. It isn’t a goodwill gesture when someone thumbs his nose at you.
I completely agree, and I’d go as far as to say that if the shield wasn’t cancelled earlier in Obama’s administration that the crisis in Ukraine never would have happened. Vlad is doing what he knows he can get away with. I think reestablishing the shield could work, but only if we boost our own domestic oil and natural gas production to compensate for what the EU will lose when Vlad inevitably shuts off the flow going through Ukraine. This is also why I think The Big O’s sanctions were doomed to failure before enforcement even started…
static-line: a US missile defense in Europe preventing the latest Crimean incursion by Russia is a debatable proposition, but it’s also plausible. I personally think that – given this administration’s inaction during the “Arab spring” and in other places – the Crimean incursion would have eventually happened anyway, albeit perhaps a couple of years from now. But maybe not.
Russia is Russia. In international relations, they’re paranoid about their security and territorial integrity. Given their history and geography (no real frontiers east of the Urals in Europe, multiple invasions over the last 1000 years from all directions), IMO they have some justification for that. And like any other people, they’re nationalistic.
IMO they feel they have a good ethnic and historical claim to the Crimea, parts of eastern Ukraine, and other areas of mixed or largely ethnically Russian population in other former Soviet Republics. If the international situation permits, they’ll attempt to recover these areas.
As I’ve said before: we in the US see separation along ethnic lines as a terrible thing. Most of the rest of the world doesn’t, and has operated that way for literally centuries – if not millennia.
Indeed, it is debatable, but the presence of a missile defense shield would go a long ways towards making Vlad think twice. It comes down to our resolve, and whether the enemy thinks we would make good on our threats. I’m no “hawk” by any means, but I will say that the day we canceled the program, it was a good indicator to Vlad that he would be able to get away with a lot more than he previously could. The second and third orders of effect that came out of that poor decision Obama made was that we instantly lost any credibility we might’ve otherwise had.
I agree with you that the sizable Russian community in the Crimera set a strong case for Vlad to go in there like he did. This is also something we may see more of in places like Moldova and Estonia, who also have pro-Moscow ethnic Russian communities. I also don’t see separation along ethnic lines necessarily as a “bad thing,” but I do see where it can potentially cause problems on our side of the fence since the guys setting our foreign policy are quite clueless.
No argument about the “think twice” argument. I still think Russia would have “gone for it”, but maybe not – or maybe later vice now. Reclaiming/keeping historically [insert nationality here] lands is a powerful force in eastern Europe – just ask Serbs about Kosovo.
No argument that this administration qualifies as the proverbial “babe in the woods” re: foreign policy. IMO Carter did at least as good a job – and I regard Jimmy the Clueless as a failure across-the-board as POTUS.
Oh definitely, reclaiming lands associated with one’s country/ethnic group is still very much alive today. It’s certainly the case with Vlad, who has said in the past that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest mistake or one of the greatest mistakes in the world (or something to that effect). Agreed on Carter, he may have been a weak President, but he did adapt to changes on the international stage. Unfortunately, the current occupant of the oval office prefers to double-down on his failed policies.
Moldova sucks! (h/t Marvin)
There is a strong threat to Moldova, but Estonia and Poland are both NATO countries, and they’ve given us a great deal of military, political, and diplomatic aid in the GWOT. I don’t believe that Putin will move in there for that reason. If he does, it’s WWIII, and Putin’s military isn’t anywhere near strong enough to take on the entire might of the West yet.
Don’t be so sure about that, because everything is contingent on our resolve-which has been found lacking in the last 5 yrs…
I think as most people stay focused on Ukraine, they fail to pick up on some of the possible 2nd and 3rd orders of effect that will effect Russia’s internal stability and other hotspots:
– Considering the ongoing internal issues inside Russia in regards to Ingushtia, Dagestan, Chechnya, free speech issues and opposition to Putin’s stranglehold on the government, the longer the Ukrainian crisis continues, the more likely it will be that we could actually see the internal opposition inside Russia become emboldened.
-Seeing a Ukraine standing up to Russia in “David vs. Goliath” fashion could also lead to terror organizations such as the network of the late-Doku Umarov begin a new attack cycle in a renewed campaign of violence against the Russian population. The current withdrawal of military personnel back to western Ukraine appears to be a consolidation of forces that were spread too thin to put up a meaningful defense against further Russian incursion.
– Another possibility that hasn’t seen a whole lot of coverage but might “surprise” some people is for Azerbaijan to launch their very own invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Why would they do that? They’d likely see the ongoing invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to exploit, thinking Russia is too heavily involved in the Crimea/Western Ukraine to provide assistance to Armenian forces. The Azeris could well be correct on that, but what this means is Russia may simply turn to the Iranians to “deal with them,” which could lead to an increased OP-Tempo for IRGC-Qods Force personnel in the region who have been engaged in cracking-down on ethnic Azeris supporting their brothers fighting the IRGC inside Northwestern Iran (Azeris are one of the largest ethnic groups in Iran). Iran may feel compelled to assist due to the fact that the Russian Naval Base in Sevastopol is a major support hub providing weapons and other material support to the Asad regime.
– Russia begins to seize land in other former eastern bloc nations, such as Estonia and Moldova that I mentioned earlier.
Just some other things to consider as this thing continues to develop…
Possible indicators on the Azeri front:
http://www.azernews.az/azerbaijan/64913.html
Excerpt:
“The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported that Armenian Armed Forces violated ceasefire on the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops in different positions 23 times on March 2.Armenian Armed Forces fired on the position of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces located in the villages of Gizilhajili and Ashagi Eskipara of Gazakh region from the positions located in the villages of Aygepar, Berkaber, Ijevan and Voskepar of Armenia’s Noyemberyan region last night.
Also, the Azerbaijani positions were fired from the positions located near the villages of Horadiz, Garakhanbeyli, Gorgan of Fizuli, Shuraabad, Kengerli, Aghdam, Mehdili of Cabrayil and Gulustan of Goranboy region.
The shooting was countered by return fire, the ministry reported.
Armenia occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territories, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions, after laying territorial claims against its South Caucasus neighbor that caused a brutal war in the early 1990s. Long-standing efforts by the US, Russian, and French mediators have been largely fruitless so far.
As a result of Armenia’s military aggression, over 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed, 4,866 were reported missing, almost 100,000 were injured, and 50,000 were disabled.
The UN Security Council has passed four resolutions on Armenian withdrawal from the Azerbaijani territory, but they have not been enforced to this day.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/kremlin-on-course-to-make-crimea-an-influential-russian-thorn-in-ukraine-s-side-1.1713879
Excerpt:
“‘Frozen conflicts’All three countries are now bedevilled by “frozen conflicts” in which Russia is deeply involved: it props up separatist regimes in Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia and in Moldova’s Transdniestria, and plays a self-interested role as simultaneous peace-broker and arms salesman to Armenia and Azerbaijan in their row over Nagorno-Karabakh.
As when he invaded Georgia in 2008, Putin now claims that Russian speakers and citizens are in danger in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine. That, despite Ukraine not confirming any serious ethnically motivated attack on a Russian during months of massive protests.
Thousands of Russian troops are now based in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Moscow recognises as independent states. Their presence, and the territorial divisions in Georgia, have hampered its push for Nato membership since tilting westward in the 2003 Rose Revolution. In Moldova, Transdniestria’s Moscow-backed leaders always seem to become more strident when the state tries to inch closer to the EU.”
On the Iranian threat in Azerbaijan:
http://blog.heritage.org/2012/02/23/irans-clandestine-operations-threaten-azerbaijan/
Excerpt:
“On February 21, Azerbaijani counterintelligence services arrested Iranian agents planning terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats and prominent members of the Jewish community. This is the second such cell being intercepted since the beginning of the year.This is a part of Iran’s shadow war against Israel conducted from New Delhi to Tbilisi, Georgia. Some say the attacks are a tit-for-tat for the alleged Israeli operations against Iranian nuclear scientists working on Tehran’s nuclear program. But there is more.
Arrests of Iranian agents in Azerbaijan indicate the heightened level of Tehran’s terrorist activity aimed at the oil-rich Caucasus state. Relations between Baku and Tehran in recent years have been steadily deteriorating, mainly due to developing ties between Azerbaijan and the U.S./NATO.
The Iranian pressure against Baku warrants a firmer response by the U.S. and the West.
Geopolitical tension is running high in the Middle East as the U.S. and Europe step up sanctions designed to starve Iran’s oil revenue stream. The sanctions’ aim is to force Iran to give up enriching uranium. It is a consensus among nuclear experts that Iran’s program is not designed as a peaceful civic project, as its government asserts.
In addition to the sanctions, Iran wages a shadow war against Israel—and now increasingly against pro-Western Azerbaijan, which is located on the land-locked Caspian Sea in the Caucasus. Tehran recently conducted operations against Israeli targets in Tbilisi, New Delhi, and Bangkok.
An article in the Times of London last week reported that the Mossad is engaged in clandestine activities in Azerbaijan. The article enraged the Iranian foreign ministry, which accused Baku of exfiltrating Israeli agents after the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist. These claims were baseless.
In the face of Iranian threats, Azerbaijan is seeking good relations with the West. Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, visited NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on February 15. Following the meeting, the two parties issued a joint statement describing the stronger ties that Azerbaijan wants to form with NATO.
In the most recent attempt at covert action, weapons for the murder squad were smuggled into the country under the direct supervision of Iran’s intelligence services. Preparations for this attack—down to photos, names, and exact details of the Israeli targets in Baku—were meticulously prepared weeks before the Iranian–Hezbollah operation in Georgia.
Arastun Orujlu, the head of East–West Institute, an independent Baku-based think tank, puts Iran’s aims in perspective: “Iran tries to provoke Israel. Iran needs an external factor to mobilize and unite the society, but it realizes that it will lose a big war. That is why Iran is trying to provoke Israel to engage in smaller-scale confrontation.”
In addition to Azerbaijan’s foreign policy priorities, Iran’s has a problem with the Baku’s secular nature. This is not surprising, as millions of ethnic Azeris live in Iran, and may want a freer life, like their brethren in Azerbaijan.
Iran attempts to undermine secular Azerbaijan by beaming Shia Islamist propaganda broadcasts and supporting radical organizations, especially in Azerbaijan’s south. Unsurprisingly, the government in Baku is guarding against radical Shiite organizations that may try to gain political power. The Hezbollah model is not for Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is already a key strategic partner for the West, but common interests lead to expanding ties. A closer partnership would result in increased oil and gas supply from the Caspian basin. This would assist European energy diversification and allow Central Asian energy resources to flow west via Azerbaijan.”
On what Russia might do (if they’re not too busy doing other things):
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67712
“The commander of Russia’s troops in Armenia has said those troops could be used in a conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh, the first time that a Russian officer has publicly made such a claim. The commander of Russia’s 102nd military base, Colonel Andrey Ruzinsky, made the comments in an interview with the Russian military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (viaRFE/RL):
“If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).”
It’s never been entirely clear how Russia would see the collective security provisions of the CSTO in the event of a conflict over Karabakh. While they would seem to clearly obtain if Azerbaijan attacked Armenia itself, since Karabakh is in de jure Azerbaijani territory, one could easily imagine Russia saying that a conflict restricted to that territory would be none of its business. But there really isn’t any room for interpretation there, and this seems like a clear Russian shot across Azerbaijan’s bow.”
Info on Russia’s Sevastopol base and it’s role in supporting the Asad regime’s war effort against Al Qaida-affiliated insurgents:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.576212
“There are several reasons to fear that if the crisis in Ukraine is not resolved diplomatically to Russia’s satisfaction, Ukraine’s neighbor will intervene – and some of the reasons also have to do with Syria.Russia maintains an enormous military port in the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s mighty Black Sea Fleet. Until 1954, the port was in Russian territory, but then it was transferred to Ukraine for administrative reasons. Apparently, the Soviet leadership believed that the Soviet Union was immortal and internal administrative borders would be politically meaningless.
It became a diplomatic problem with the breakup of the Soviet Union, but a solution was found: Since 1991, the Sevastopol port has been leased to Russia, comparable to the control the Americans have of Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Russia has another port in its territory in Novorosisk, but it is a civilian port that cannot serve as a substitute for a military port.
The Russian superpower has always had a serious strategic problem: how to ensure access in winter to the warm waters of the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. The Sevastopol port currently serves as the Russian end of the military route to the warm waters. The straits that pass through Turkey – the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles – are the continuation of the route.
What does this have to do with Syria?
For many years, Syria’s Tartus port has served as a “safe harbor” for the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean. In May 2013, as part of Russia’s new strategic deployment in the wake of the rebellion against President Bashar Assad’s regime, Russia established a “Mediterranean Naval Command.” Tartus is now the safe harbor for the new fleet, which comprises 11 warships: aircraft carriers, submarine combat ships, escort ships and a missile destroyer. This new fleet is an extension of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, and under its command.
All Russian activity in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean is currently dependent upon the Sevastopol port in Ukraine. However, it is through the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia that Russia is transferring increasingly large arms shipments to Assad’s army and safeguarding its interests in Damascus.
And with America’s recent wariness of Egypt, contacts are being pursued between Moscow and Cairo for a $2 billion arms deal that would be financed by Saudi Arabia. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Sevastopol port is indirectly the key to Syria and perhaps to Egypt and the entire Mediterranean in the future.”
Static-line Thanks again for the inputs. Very informative considering I don’t read those news outlets.
My prediction:
As soon as enough time has passed for the “microwave minute” mindset types (those folk who can’t think beyond the bottom of their own bellies or any further than the reach of their own gonads, and have a concept of cause and effect that only tracks back for as long as it takes to heat a cup of water for instant coffee in a microwave), to forget how this started, and it becomes obvious that this mess is going to get real bloody in a huge way and cost massive in blood and treasure, the hew and cry will stop being “ain’t our business!” and change to “why didn’t anyone connect the dots and stop this when it would have been so much easier!”.
Thus it has always been. Thus it will always be.
Any bets on the finger pointing beginning just after Obama is replaced in January, 2017?
The greatest threat to this operation are the Russian citizens in Russia, not in Ukraine. If they don’t give a shit, it’s over. If they favor it, it’s over. However, if they perceive this to be a nasty land and power grab by Moscow and give voice to their opposition, it could get dicey for Putin. The Russians has produced a non-USSR.
“The Russians has produced a non-USSR.” Sometimes I crack myself up. Anyway, what I was trying to say but butchered it was that Russia has produced a non-USSR generation.
Yes, but Vlad Putin grew up in the Cold War, in the USSR and wants the old days back. He was the head of the KGB until the Cold War ended. He wants a return to those Good Old Days.
I think I understand that, because during the Cold War, you knew who was on the other side of the fence and could literally wipe out your home town in the blink of an eye.
We have maybe two generations in this country who have never had to deal with the threat of a nuke base in Cuba, or where to put the bomb shelter and how to stock it.
I grew up on the side of the volcano. Occasionally, it rumbled, but it never actually erupted. Now I wonder if those actually are coming back, if maybe China’s government is on the sidelines watching all this posturing and land-grabbing, and looking for a good spot to stick its oar in. It has been in a dispute with Japan for several years now over islands that lie between mainland China and Japan. This can light up at any time, you see.
It’s not that I’m nostaglic for the good old days myself, even though I did hear Frankie Vallee doing “Ragdoll” on the radio at the gas station this afternoon. But I do understand what is behind Putin’s efforts to reacquire the states that used to be part of the USSR.
Ex-PH2: Oh, I don’t dispute anything you wrote. My point is that if Ivan and Svetlana Q. Public get upset about the incursion, that could upset Putin’s caviar cart. Other than that, there is nothing to stop him. I don’t know where the Russian youngest generation is on anything. I just hope that they are more savvy than their counterparts in the USA who understand a world crisis to be an hour w/o internet service.
This is Vlad’s 3rd term, isn’t it? I think he wants the premiership for life, like Brezshnev and Krushchev had.
The Russian public liked the way he got crime under control, but you’re right when you say there is a whole generation who didn’t grow up with that Cold War mindset and who don’t understand, at all, what his aims are.
I don’t see it so much as a return to the Reds vs. the USofA, as a throwback to how things used to be, and he wants to get back to that.
I just hope that this does not erupt into a real war. People can snicker at China’s military and tecnology, but most of OUR tech stuff is built over there. They’ve caught on quickly. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t be building up their fleet.
I’m the second to admit that my memory is not what it used to be, my wife is the first,… But I think that Sarah Palin predicted all of this when running for VP and was laughed at and considered an idiot by the “smarter” liberal side. They had all of the answers back then…What happened to “yes we can”?
Maybe they should ask Gov. Palin if they can borrow her crystal ball, OR maybe, just maybe, She was more in-tune with the foreign policies than the current narcissistic, know-it-alls we are now stuck with.
DISCLAIMER: This is 100% my opinion only. I know that there are some liberals that follow this site. I am NOT baiting an argument
Blaster. What’s wrong with, as you say, baiting an argument? If some libtard wants to come here, get his ass kicked, and go home (to Democratic Underground) whimpering, he won’t be the first. Geopolitical awareness and libs are as common as conservatism and atheism.
I can agree with that. They probably visit this site just to 1. Learn and 2. Get themselves mad.
About the Ukraine:
At the moment, there is a lot of violence in eastern Ukraine — that is, the part where many people speak Russian. I speculate (not by myself, I read this somewhere) that the violence is “arranged”. When Mr. Putin wants to take Eastern Ukraine, he will point out that the Ukrainian Government is unable to protect ethnic Russian people so it is his responsibility to do so. Whereupon the violence will stop.
Presuming that this is accurate – and I think that it is – we will see Mr. Putin in Eastern Ukraine pretty soon. If he waits too long, westerners will ask, “This has been going on for a long time so why now?” I’m thinking next weekend or the weekend after – more or less. I think that the timing is two thirds logistics and one third theater with ten percent politics just for spice.
I too remember duck and cover. I also remember that the Cold War rationale was international communism. Russia is not a communist state (it really wasn’t at the time either but never mind) so what is our rationale for opposing Russia? Concern about communism was a key primary reason that Adolf Hitler gave for converting the German government from something resembling a republic into a national socialist state with the full support of the German people. Communism was imposed on the Baltic states in 1940 and Poland, Hungary, and CZ in 1945. Russia had a lot of influence in Hungary by the mid-1930s. Tito was a communist before WW2 started. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan have been subject to Russian influence (and in some cases outright control) since at least the mid-1800s. The Cossacks were fierce Russian troops who came from the Crimea.
America just gave up her chance to pull those countries away from Russian control.
With the US abandoning its leadership position, and NATO a paper tiger, who else will be looking for conquests? India? Iran? China?