This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: “The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves”

  • “Previews of Coming Attractions”

    People wonder just how bad the Ebola outbreak could get. Well, with a bit of understanding of the relevant mechanisms, knowledge of the math involved, and a spreadsheet, putting together a “quick and dirty” approximate model for the spread of that disease is relatively easy.

    What it shows may be somewhat hard to swallow. And it is a simplified model; reality will be somewhat more complex. But for the early stages of an epidemic – and we’re still in the relatively early stages of this one – I think this should be relatively close.

    First, a few known facts and/or best estimates for the current outbreak and about Ebola itself.

    1. Although the first case was reported 6 months ago, the current outbreak has actually been ongoing since Dec 2013. The index case infection(s) occurred in Guinea, in late Dec 2013. It simply wasn’t recognized as Ebola for around 3 months.
    2. The mortality rate (percentage of those infected with the disease who die) for a disease outbreak cannot be calculated until after the outbreak has run its course. However, an estimate – the current case fatality rate (CFR) – can be calculated. The CFR is a snapshot in time, and tends to rise during the course of an outbreak as more complete information becomes available and some of the patients sick at the time of last calculation die. For the current outbreak, data indicates that the CFR for the current outbreak is approximately 53%.
    3. The total number of reported Ebola cases during the current outbreak is believed to be only approximately 40% of the actual number of cases.   Roughly 60% of the cases (and deaths)in the current outbreak are believed to have never been reported – or in other words, multiply the current reported totals for cases and deaths by 2.5 to get the best guess at the true number.
    4. Facts and best estimates concerning Ebola virus disease.
    • The average Ebola incubation period seems to be about 10 days (min observed is 2 days; max observed is 21).
    • During incubation, patients are asymptomatic (without symptoms). Individuals are not in general contagious prior to becoming symptomatic.
    • At the onset of symptoms, patients begin shedding the virus in bodily fluids and become contagious.
    • Transmission of Ebola appears to be via human-to-human transmission through close contact and/or contact with contaminated fomites/surfaces. Contact with an symptomatic Ebola sufferer’s bodily fluids (sweat, urine, feces, vomit, semen, vaginal secretions, mucous, saliva, or blood) is believed to be the mechanism by which Ebola is transmitted from person to person. For that reason, shaking hands with or standing within 1 meter of an Ebola patient without PPE is considered close contact.
    • The virus appears to enter the human body through mucous membranes or open wounds.
    • Aerial transmission of Ebola does not appear to be a normal means of transmission from human-to-human. However, the possibility cannot be ruled out. Ebola Reston is believed to have spread between primates in different rooms of the famous Hazelton “monkey house” in Reston, VA, through the facility’s ventilation system. After analysis, aerial transmission through the facility’s ventilation system was determined to have been the most likely mechanism by which that Ebola variant spread.

    How epidemics work.

    An epidemic in an immunologically naïve population (e.g., one that has no previous exposure, and thus no natural resistance to the disease) works and can be modeled at a somewhat simplistic level as follows.

    1. A first case – termed the index case – becomes infected. This begins the first generation of the outbreak.
    2. The index case proceeds through the disease’s incubation period. For Ebola, this is on average 10 days. For Ebola, the individual is not contagious during the incubation period.
    3. The individual becomes contagious. For Ebola, this occurs with the onset of symptoms. Also for Ebola, the period during which a sufferer is contagious lasts until they either recover (average is approximately 16 days) or die (usually around day 10 after onset of symptoms). (One caveat here: the Ebola virus persists in certain organs of recovered Ebola patients for up to 90 days after clinical recovery. Though the recovered patient’s body does eventually rid itself of the virus, transmission to others after recovery can occur. In particular, sexual transmission of Ebola by a “recovered” Ebola patient several weeks after clinical recovery has been recorded.)
    4. Transmission to others occurs during the period while an infected person is contagious. During this period, the individual transmits the disease to some number of other individuals. The average number of persons to whom each sufferer transmits the disease is a critically important parameter, called the “reproduction number”. So long as this number is greater than 1, the number of people infected will continue to increase. It’s just a question of how fast.  For the current Ebola outbreak, the reproduction number is estimated to be somewhere between 1.5 and 2.
    5. The transmission to others referenced in step 4 begins the next generation of the virus. Steps 1 through 4 then repeat.

    That’s it. Until the numbers of persons with some type of immunity to the disease (either through survival or vaccination) in the affected population becomes significant, the above is a reasonably accurate – though somewhat crude – description of how an infectious disease propagates through a susceptible population.  It will hold until something (deaths, developed immunity, behavioral changes, whatever) changes the transmission cycle of the disease – usually by changing the reproduction number.

    Those familiar with calculus might be wondering if this is a process exhibiting exponential growth. The answer, unfortunately, is yes. Epidemics in fully susceptible populations are indeed exponential growth scenarios until “herd immunity” (the fraction of the population immune due to prior exposure or vaccination) becomes significant – or until the population dies out, or something else intervenes to reduce the reproduction number below 1.

    The Model.

    Here is a simplified spreadsheet model I’ve come up with for the current West Africa Ebola outbreak. As noted, it’s a rather crude, “quick and dirty” model. But it gives a reasonable idea of what may be in store; I don’t think it’s grossly in error.  Format is Excel 97-2003.  If anyone with more knowledge of the subject or the parameters in question has criticism or comment, I’m all ears. Getting it right is what’s important.

    Fair warning:  I would suggest you (a) sit down, and (b) get a cup of coffee (or something stronger) before you look at the model.  And I wouldn’t recommend do so immediately after or while eating.

    Assumptions used were the following.

    • Single index case in late Dec 2013.
    • 53% mortality rate.
    • Reproduction number of 1.57
    • Average incubation period of 10 days.
    • Transmission on average occurs (and thus begins the next generation of the epidemic) on day 5 after each infected individual’s symptoms begin.
    • Reported cases and deaths are each 40% of actual.
    • Estimates based on averages are reasonably representative of physical reality and will not be grossly in error.

    For 9 October – the start date of the model’s generation 20 of the outbreak – this model predicted a reported number of cases of 7,724 and a reported number of deaths of 4,090.

    Per the CDC website, on 8 October 2014, the reported number of cases was 8,011; the reported number of deaths was 3,857.

    On the “bright side” – if you can call it that – the model I developed doesn’t predict 1.4 million cases until late Feb/early Mar 2015. Without changes in the outbreak, CDC predicts that number of cases by late January.

    I guess I could say “Happy Halloween” at this point; the above is certainly scary enough. But I don’t see much to be happy about above.

    THIS is why we need to do everything possible to keep this sh!t out of the United States. Period.

    Are you listening, Mr. President?

  • Another Ebola Update

    Another few “good news” stories regarding the current Ebola outbreak.

    As they might say in Marburg:   Nun sind wir wirklich aufgeschmissen.

  • Yeah, This Is Gonna Work Just Freakin’ Great

    We all know now just how effective airport screening in West Africa for Ebola exposure really is.  We have an example in Dallas of just how well that works.

    Well, the US is going to “fix” that problem.  The      DC Clown Krewe running things      Administration has announced that the US will now screen passengers arriving from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and    Nigeria   Liberia at US airports.

    They’ll do this at 5 US airports, to be precise – JFK, Dulles, Newark, O’Hare, and Atlanta.  Because everyone knows people coming into the country from West Africa can’t possibly enter the US through other airports!

    They’ll be using DHS personnel to take the individual’s temperatures with “non-contact thermometers”.   Because of course, it’s impossible for someone arriving in the US to take a rather large dose of aspirin or ibuprofen to reduce a mild fever while on or before their flight.

    The DHS personnel will also ask those arriving from West Africa questions, which everyone arriving will answer 100% truthfully.  After all, no one trying to enter the US ever lies to Customs!

    They’ll also be on the lookout for “symptoms of illness”.  That will work perfectly too, as no on can possibly hide mild discomfort, fatigue, muscle pain, or a queasy stomach from someone watching them.

    And if anyone shows indicators, they’ll be referred to “the appropriate public health authority”.  Those who don’t show any indications of illness will be given information on “self monitoring” and asked to provide contact information.   Which of course everyone arriving will to truthfully and with 100% accuracy.

    Yeah, this is gonna work beautifully.  We’re saved!  Hallelujah!  All praise to “teh Won”!

     

    Sheesh.  These idiots couldn’t figure out how to wank their crank with an instruction manual and a demonstration.

  • Is Anyone Really Surprised?

    Remember the 2012 Secret Service prostitution incident in Columbia?  You know, that incident where of Secret Service personnel were later fired (or otherwise disciplined) for cavorting with prostitutes or related bad behavior?

    Remember that the White House at the time flatly and repeatedly denied any White House involvement?

    Do I really need to spell it out?  Turns out that senior White House aides were indeed apparently aware of the matter early on. And there are indications that a volunteer (but politically well-connected) member of the White House advance party may have indeed been involved.

    The Secret Service informed the White House Counsel at the time, Katherine Ruemmler, and other Presidential aides of what had happened.  Informed, as in provided them firsthand accounts and information from hotel records concerning what had happened and who appeared to be involved. She and other White House staff “conducted an internal review that did not identify any inappropriate behavior on the part of the White House advance team”.

    Interesting.  Then why did the DHS IG investigators working the case apparently come to a different conclusion?  And why did the lead DHS IG investigator assigned to investigate the incident, David Nieland, say he was directed by more senior DHS IG officials to delay the report of his investigation until after the 2012 Presidential election?  Ya know, for some reason I just don’t think that delay was ordered to ensure a more comprehensive, better investigation.

    Oh, and Nieland also says that he was directed

    “to withhold and alter certain information in the report of investigation because it was potentially embarrassing to the administration.”

    Curiously enough, it appears that the IG investigators believed that there was indeed possible involvement by at least one White House aide – but when they raised questions concerning this, they were put on administrative leave in apparent retaliation for doing so.  It’s also curious that the DHS Acting Inspector General, Charles K. Edwards, later “resigned amid allegations of misconduct stemming in part from the dispute”.

    The Washington Post has a damn good and longish article on this cover-up today.  It’s definitely worth reading to see the details.

    For some reason reading that article makes me think of a puddle of dirty Water by the Gate.  But maybe that’s just me.

    Bottom line:  it sure looks like this      DC Clown Krewe       Administration has been p!ssing on our leg and telling us it’s raining – yet again.   So what else is new?

  • Pentagon: some troops deployed to Africa “will have to handle infected blood samples”

    Remember that       Administration feelgood exercise     military deployment to Africa to combat the Ebola outbreak? The one where the Administration first insisted that no troops would treat Ebola patients – even though uniformed USPHS Commissioned Corps personnel, who may be militarized by Presidential order, and who are also by law uniformed service personnel who qualify for VA benefits, PX/commissary privileges, and TRICARE, will be staffing one of the hospitals being built by US forces?

    Well, other than that part about PHS Commissioned Corps, I guess that’s technically true. But as is often the case with this      DC clown krewe     Administration, it’s not the full story.  Here, that initial statement was misleading as hell – IMO by design.

    It turns out that a number of uniformed military personnel deployed to West Africa will in fact be handling blood samples taken from Ebola patients in mobile testing labs.  A Pentagon spokesman, RADM John Kirby, has acknowledged that the risk involved is high, “if not more risk” than direct contact with Ebola patients.

    DoD has already set up 3 such mobile testing labs in West Africa. Four more have been requested.

    Of course, GEN David Rodriguez, US AFRICOM Commander, recently stated that containing the spread of Ebola “is a national security priority for President Obama”.  Presumably, that’s why we’re deploying forces to his AO.

    That statement is . . . interesting.

    I say that, because we currently haven’t imposed any quarantine requirements for people entering this country who’ve been in the area of the outbreak within Ebola’s known incubation period – and who may be asymptomatic carriers for up to 21 days after exposure. And we still haven’t imposed a ban on nonessential travel to the area by US citizens and legal residents.

    What’s it going to take for us to do that – someone bringing the virus here before they show symptoms? Oh, wait: that’s already happened in Dallas. I guess it will take substantially more than that to convince us to take this sh!t seriously.

    So pardon me for not exactly taking that “national security priority” statement at face value. If containing Ebola were truly a “priority”, we’d be imposing substantially stricter entry controls on travelers from the outbreak region than we do today.

  • An Ebola Outbreak Update

    A few links to news stories about the West Africa Ebola outbreak, courtesy of Drudge and other sources:

    And, finally:

    The last linked article also has a collection of other more recent news concerning the outbreak.  Most if not all of those links are not included above.

    IMO, Texas Governor Rick Perry has it right. We need to impose a mandatory quarantine on all persons entering the country who have been in Africa any time during the 21 days prior to entry into the US. And we need to ban nonessential travel to the nations of West Africa where the outbreak is still raging uncontained immediately.

  • Regarding USAF Personnel Cuts

    One of our readers of the USAF-persuasion recently provided a link regarding USAF personnel issues.  So thought I’d write about that too.

    As has been the case with the Army and Navy, members of the USAF are also being scrutinized for involuntary separation. The USAF recently completed a records review of 7,121 individuals in the ranks of Senior Airman through Senior Master Sergeant in “over-manned specialties”.   Of that group, 5,700 were retained – a retention rate of just over 80%. The remaining 1,421 individuals will be discharged, will be offered the opportunity to retire under temporary early retirement authority (TERA), or will be allowed to retire normally (but involuntarily) NLT 1 February 2015.  And individual’s time-in-service will determine which option(s) they can use.

    Little information was provided regarding current USAF officer force-shaping measures. The article did mention that due to voluntary losses there would be no reduction-in-force of USAF medical officers by the reduction-in-force board to be held in October.

    To put things in perspective: the number enlisted personnel selected for involuntary discharge by the USAF this year is approximately the same as the number of CPTs and MAJs that the Army has selected this year for involuntary separation.  And while I have no idea how many enlisted personnel have/will be been identified by the Army to get their walking papers this year, I’d guess that number will be somewhat larger than the number of O3s and O4s combined.  But I could be wrong.

    Still – for those selected, I’m sure they’re thinking “Bless Our Hearts, It’s Christmas Almost. Or at least thinking the acronym.

    And, yeah – being told to “hit the bricks” is one helluva Christmas present from Uncle Sam.

  • 34 Kicked Out For Cheating at Prototype

    Today we learned from Fox News that 34 people have been separated from the Navy for cheating on qualification tests at the Charleston, South Carolina prototype training site:

    The number of accused and the duration of cheating are greater than was known when the Navy announced in February that it had discovered cheating on qualification exams by an estimated 20 to 30 sailors seeking to be certified as instructors at the nuclear training unit at Charleston, South Carolina.

    At least 10 more are currently under investigation, and their status at this time is unclear.

    Social media pages involving Navy nukes are obviously talking about this. While all are glad that this cheating ring was busted, many were unsurprised by the fact that it occurred.

    Prototype is the third stage in the training of prospective nuclear plant operators. After graduation from Basic Training at Great Lakes, “baby nukes” are sent to Charleston to attend Nuclear Field “A” School as either Machinist Mates, Electricians Mates, or Electronics Technicians. Then they attend 24 weeks of Nuclear Power School, where they are taught everything from math and Physics to metallurgy, reactor dynamics, Chemistry, and further in-rate and cross-rate knowledge. Prototype also starts with more classroom training before students move “in-hull”, as we called it back in the day. There, students stand “under instruction” watches and learn about all systems within the plant.

    Qualifications are closely monitored, with students required to make continuous progress and stay “ahead of the curve”. Written exams are given, and when the qualification card (book) is complete, the student is given an oral qualification board with 3-4 staff members quizzing the student on any and all plant systems. At this point, the student is then considered ready for assignment to a carrier or submarine, although qualification on the ship/submarine they are assigned to may take up to another year after they arrive at their ultimate duty station.

    (Admiral) Richardson (Head of Naval Reactors) said he met individually with each of the accused and heard at least two common themes: a belief that there was little risk of getting caught, and a work environment at the nuclear training site that created stresses and pressures on the approximately 300 sailors who serve as instructors.

    IMHO, there are several reasons why this culture came about. This is not the first cheating scandal to occur in the Nuclear Navy–there have been cases aboard the USS Memphis and USS Eisenhower, but this is the first notable cheating scandal to occur at a training command, and involving staff members.

    The prototypes in question are what were referred to as “floatotypes”–reconverted ballistic missile submarines whose engine rooms serve as the training platforms for the students assigned there after Nuclear Power School. These plants are now 50 years old. Simply keeping them running is proving to be a challenge, to the point the staff doesn’t have enough time to qualify themselves, let alone perform their primary function of qualifying students.

    Next, for about 15-20 years now, the mentality in training for nuclear power seems to have shifted from a “filter” to a “pump” mentality. The attrition rate 25+ years ago in Nuclear Power School alone could be as high as 30-40 percent. My class was lucky–we lost “only” 25 percent. Although most of the losses occurred in “A” school and NPS, by no means was a student guaranteed to graduate prototype, and a number did fail out. But the need for instructors and staff became so acute, after around 2000, the Top 50/Top 50 (top 50 percent in both NPS and Prototype) requirement was set aside. Talking to some folks who were instructors, this was a mistake. Folks who should never have been able to screen for instructor duty did so, and their lack of knowledge was glaring.

    Most of the folks who were cheating were “sea-returnees”, people who had at least one tour under their belts, and some more. These were not people fresh out of the pipeline. Many were First Class Petty Officers or even Chief Petty Officers, who SHOULD have had at least the “big picture” knowledge on how to run a plant safely and maximize propulsion–the two key goals of any ship or submarine. The senior enlisted watch on board a submarine is Engineering Watch Supervisor (EWS). These watchstanders are the eyes and ears of the Engineering Officer of the Watch (EOOW), and in fact underway they relieve the EOOW as required or during emergency. Most of the people caught cheating had EWS qualifications at their underway commands. The fact that the prototype was a different type of plant is really less concern than one might think–pumps are pumps, valves are valves, etc., and it’s just a matter of how they’re put together that makes plants different.

    Finally, Naval Reactors is, to put it nicely, assholes when it comes to training, particularly testing. Scores must fit in a certain range–too high, the test was too easy. Too low, the test is too hard, but you can’t have a test with NO failures, and Rickover’s ghost help you if you’re the “designated failure”. Some of it makes sense, some of it you just kind of shrug and accept, and some is just jaw-dropping fucktardery.

    Imagine Naval Reactors or the ORSE team coming on and telling the E/RC Divisions that their test on Electrical Safety was too easy because they had no failures. Really? No shit? Hey, they had no failures because IT’S THEIR FREAKING JOB! If they did fail electrical safety CT Exams, should they really be sticking their asses in switchgear or energized equipment drawers? Frankly, it’s an archaic method of gauging knowledge, and not a very effective one.

    It creates more knowledgeable operators, to be sure, but it gets to a point it becomes nearly impossible to complete the tests in the allotted timeframe. We’re talking 100-page EWS exams that had to be completed in 8 hours or less. No multiple choice, no fill-in-the-blank. Essay questions, every one. Failure to put down key words, phrases, or adequately explain detail down to incredibly silly detail in some cases would be enough to create a failure. Failure could be cause for getting booted out of instructor duty, an almost certain career-ending result.

    So we have overworked instructors, who may or may not have been good choices for instructor duty, given exams that were wholly unrealistic tests of their knowledge. End result? See above.

    Unfortunately, Naval Reactors (and Big Navy) have, to paraphrase Monty Python, found their witch, and they have burned them. But they won’t really address the issues that led up to this. Treat the symptom, not the disease.