This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: “The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves”

  • Yer Latest “Good Economic News”

    Well, the economic news for August is now out.  Short version:  the economy is still in the freaking toilet.

    For the third consecutive month, the US labor participation rate remained at 62.6%.  That means only 62.6% (the actual number, to 6 figures, calculates to 62.5518%) of the US civilian labor force is actually working or actively looking for work.

    This is a 38-year low – for the third straight month.  Prior to the last 3 months, the last time the US labor participation rate was this low or lower was October 1977.  Then, it was 62.4%.

    Yes, that does indeed read October 1977 – as in “during the worst of the Carter years”.

    It’s true that the “official unemployment rate” fell slightly last month, from 5.2% to 5.1%.  But that measure is absolutely worthless, because it tells you nothing about the underlying economic reality.  Here’s why.

    U3 – the “official unemployment rate” – is calculated using only those who are “actively looking for work” but who are unable to find work.  “Actively looking for work” is defined as looking for work within the last 4 weeks.  However, if someone has gotten completely discouraged and is no longer even looking for work, they’re not counted.  But they still exist.  And at some point in the future, they’ll be looking for work again.

    U3 is such a p!ss-poor measure that it’s even possible for this to cause the “official” unemployment rate to drop while you’re losing jobs overall.  I’ve provided a short example at the end to show how this can occur.

    That appears to be precisely what’s been going on for the past several years.  The US labor participation rate has gone down by 3.1% since January 2009.  That means a huge number of Americans simply aren’t even bothering to look for work that should be looking.  If the labor participation rate were the same today as it was in January 2009, an additional 7.78 million Americans would be in the labor force.

    Today’s US civilian labor force totals over 251 million.  Just for “fun”, let’s calculate what the “official” unemployment rate would be today if we had January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    In January 2009, the US labor participation rate was 65.7%.  If that were the case today, the US civilian labor force would be approximately 164,970,000. (Since the US labor participation rate today is only 62.6%, the civilian labor force today is only about 157,065,000.)

    However, today only about 149,055,000 Americans have jobs.  That means if we had a labor participation rate equal to that of January 2009, we’d have about 15,915,000 unemployed people who were actively looking for work today.

    Doing the math gives an unemployment rate of 9.64+% if we had the January 2009 labor participation rate of 65.7%. Since “official” unemployment in January 2009 was 7.8%, we’d need at least 4.5 million more jobs than exist today to get back to January 2009 economic conditions – and nearly 8 million more to achieve a 5.1% unemployment rate at January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    Oh, and we’re all also taking it in the proverbial shorts regarding purchasing power, too.  Per that wonderful bastion of conservatism called the New York Times, real wages (e.g., adjusted for inflation) have dropped since January 2009 in all earnings quintiles – with the lowest-earning quintile seeing the largest real decline.

    Recovery?  What  freaking recovery? So far, there hasn’t been one.  All we’ve seen is stagnation, along with people becoming discouraged to the point of giving up.  Actual economic recovery?  Um. no.

    It’s been more than 6 and a half years since January 2009.  Are we ever going to see any real economic progress?

    . . . 

    Example Showing Loss of Jobs AND a Decline in “Official” Unemployment

    This simple example assumes no retirements and no new entrants into the job market during the two months in question.  In real world calculations, they’re considered – those are handled by adding new entrants and subtracting retirements, but the example is simpler and easier to follow if we omit those.  FWIW:  since the population is growing, there are typically more new entrants than retirements each month.  In the real world, new job creation must exceed the difference between new entrants and retirements or the unemployment rate will go up.

    First month

    These are the numbers at the beginning of the first month.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000

    Number with jobs:  900,000

    Labor Force:  100,000 + 900,000 = 1,000,000

    Unemployment rate:  100,000  / (100,000 + 900,000) = 10.0%

    Second month

    At the beginning of the second month, 25,000 jobs are cut.  However,  50,000 of the previous month’s “officially” unemployed people got fed up and quit looking for work 5 weeks ago – so they’re no longer counted.  The 25,000 who lost their jobs immediately start looking for new work.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000 (previous month) – 50,000 (quit looking)  + 25,000 (lost jobs, started looking)  =  75,000

    Number with jobs:   875,000

    Labor force:  75,000 + 875,000 = 950,000 (those who quit looking are no longer counted)

    Unemployment rate:  75,000 / ( 75,000 + 875,000) = 7.89%

     

    So, there was a net loss of 25,000 jobs in that month, but because enough people got fed up and quit looking for work  the “official” unemployment rate  dropped by 2.1+%.  Truly a great measure of economic conditions, eh?

     

  • Well, That Didn’t Take Very Long

    I’m guessing any number of people are saying or thinking “Told you so” right about now.

    ‘Sister Wives’ family cites gay marriage ruling in polygamy case

    Sheesh.  I don’t think I wanna know what’s coming next.

     

  • Doesn’t Pass the “Smell Test”

    Well, the Army’s drawdown is underway.  And even decorated heroes aren’t immune.

    It seems that at least one 11-year Special Forces Sergeant First Class and bona fide decorated hero is being forced out.  His name is SFC Charles Martland.

    He’s been described by former teammates as “the finest soldier they have ever served alongside”.  He was awarded a Bronze Star with V-Device for combat heroism in Afghanistan.  He was runner-up for 2014 Special Warfare Training Group Instructor of the Year.

    But it seems Martland’s records went before a recent Quality Management Program review board.  His file apparently contained a bad evaluation – a “Relief for Cause” evaluation, to be precise.  He was selected for elimination by the board, and he’s being forced out.

    What did Martland do to get relieved for cause?  Well, I’ll tell you.

    Martland’s team was engaged in training Afghan police.  However, while doing that they discovered that one of the “fine individuals” they were training was also a child rapist and a woman-beater.

    Specifically, the SF team supporting the training discovered that that individual had raped a 12-year-old Afghan boy.  The boy’s mother brought her son to the SF detachment for medical care.  When he was examined, the rape was discovered.

    The individual found out that his crime had been discovered.  He then located the boy’s mother beat her for exposing his crime.

    Martland and his team leader afterwards confronted the rapist about what he’d done.  When they confronted the rapist, that “fine individual” told them essentially that it was no big deal – and then laughed in their faces.

    At that point, Martland and his team leader physically shoved the rapist and woman-beater; he fell to the ground.  The rapist was bruised, but otherwise unhurt – unfortunately.  I’d personally be OK with the bastard having ceased consuming oxygen at that point.

    However, the low life bastard afterwards apparently reported the confrontation to other US authorities.  This ultimately led to Martland and his team leader being relieved.

    Yes, you read that correctly.  They were relieved of duty because they confronted a child rapist and woman-beating low-life bastard without seriously injuring or killing him.

    Sorry, but that doesn’t make any freaking sense.  Wrong?  Perhaps technically.  But also IMO completely understandable.  Hell – in my book, if anything those two should have been commended for keeping their anger in check and not summarily killing the bastard on the spot.

    Martland’s team leader opted to leave the Army some time ago.  However, Martland stayed in the Army instead.

    But now he’s getting pitched.

    Fox News has further details here. You should read the linked article.

    But maybe you should wait until later to read it if you’re having high blood pressure issues right now.

  • Ever Wondered “Why Platte River Networks”?

    Ever wonder why Clintoon chose Platte River Networks to host her private email server?  Well, it appears that the UK’s Daily Mail got curious about that too.

    So they tracked down a few former Platte River Networks employees and asked them some questions.

    This is what they found.   I’ll warn ya:  “It ain’t pretty.”  But the article does appear to have a good timeline of what happened when.

    Color me unsurprised.  When it comes to the Clintoons and how they operate, insider connections and plausible deniability seem to be primary concerns.

    The linked article is IMO worth a read.  But after reading it, I can’t say I’ll be surprised if it turns out there really aren’t any existing backups of Clintoon’s server.

  • More F-35 “Good News”

    Most TAH readers have heard about that new F-35 “Lightning II” that DoD insists will be ready for prime time “real soon now”.   (Yeah, I know the USMC has accepted it and declared it “operational” – but I won’t consider it truly “ready for prime time” until it can perform its Close Air Support [CAS] role too.  And as I’ll discuss below, right now the F-35 simply can’t do that.)

    Well, it seems that there’s another little minor issue with the platform that’s been made public.

    Jonn’s written previously about how the F-35 is less maneuverable in a dogfight than one of the aircraft it will replace, the F-16.  Others have written elsewhere about the fact that the F-35 will be far less effective at the Close Air Support (CAS) role than the A-10 – if for no other reason than the F-35 is only designed to carry between 15.5% (USAF model, 182 rounds) and 18.7% (USN/USMC model, 220 rounds) as much cannon ammunition as the A-10 can carry (1,174 rounds).

    But it will certainly be better air-to-air against the current aircraft it might face from Russia or China, right?  Well, in a word – no.

    Turns out that the F-35 will also likely be less maneuverable than the current aircraft from Russia and China it’s expected to face.  So it will likely be worse than those aircraft in an air-to-air role, too.

    Yeah, the analysis was done by a progressive think tank.  So?   Remember:  they are capable of telling the truth on occasion, too.  (smile)

    Gee, what a surprise. I mean, the program has been an unmitigated success so far, right?

    So, to recap: the F-35 is hugely expensive – several times more expensive than the aircraft it replaces.  It’s worse as a CAS platform – and, by the way, it won’t even be available for that role for at least 4 years, as performing that role isn’t possible until gun control software which is projected to be available in 2019 is delivered (and only then if that gun control software works correctly).  It is less maneuverable than the F16 it replaces in a dogfight.  And it’s also less maneuverable than the foreign aircraft it may have to face in air-to-air combat.

    So . . . what’s not to like?

    Folks, we’ve seen this “movie” once before.  Specifically, we saw it early in Vietnam – when US aircraft, designed not for maneuverability and depending solely on air-to-air missiles to take out enemy aircraft – got absolutely savaged by more maneuverable Soviet designs.  (The air-to-air loss ratio early during the Vietnam War was about 1-to-1.)  Plus, those aircraft kinda stunk when performing a CAS role, too.

    The “movie” absolutely sucked then.  There’s a damn good chance we’ll see a modern-day sequel if we continue down this path – and it will suck just as badly as the original.

    We learned from that earlier fiasco, though.  The result was a new generation of US military aircraft that took those lessons to heart.  Those aircraft were the F-15, F-16, F/A-18, and the A-10.

    The F-35 is a turkey.  We need to admit that fact, pull the plug on it, and go back to the drawing board.  Yesterday.

  • Just When You Think You’ve Heard It All . . .

    . . . you see something that makes you realize you definitely haven’t.

    Wanna take a guess at what the current POTUS is blaming his predecessor for now?  If you guessed “for Iran’s nuclear program becoming a serious issue” – well, give yourself a cigar.  According to the POTUS’s latest speech, the Iranian nuclear program apparently only became a concern because of US operations against Iraq starting in 2003.

    Of course, despite the statements in his latest speech that the Iranian possession of a nuclear warhead poses a “danger”, apparently the current POTUS feels that the Iranian nuclear program really poses only a negligible threat to the USA.  I say that because he’s reportedly OKed a deal that appears to leave the Iranian nuclear program essentially intact and unchanged, and only asks the Iranians to give up something amounting to the combination of “Jack” and “Squat”.

    For such agreements we all know that often the “devil is in the details”.  And I’d sure like to read that proposed agreement for myself to see what he’s signed the USA up to do – and what Iran’s agreeing to do as well.  But I guess we’ll have to “pass it to see what’s in it”.   The POTUS won’t make the contents of that proposed agreement do public.

    Seems to me we’ve had to do something like that  – e.g., “pass it to see what’s in it” – at least once before.  I guess keeping the details of the proposed nuclear agreement with Iran under wraps must just be some more of that “most transparent Administration in history” stuff the POTUS keeps touting.

    Sheesh, and GMAFB.  Did he really keep a straight face while spouting that BS?

    The Iranians are still referring to the USA the “Great Satan”.  They still preach “Death to America”.  They are pursuing a nuclear program for one reason, and one reason only:  to acquire a bomb.  Once they do, they’ll use it – either against US interests, or against Israel (who they’ve repeatedly vowed to destroy).  Or they’ll supply it to some international terrorist group who will do the same on their behalf.

    This regime running things today in DC really should start calling itself something like “Clueless Convergence.”

    Of course, after this last claim that just might be an insult to clueless fools everywhere.

     

  • The Economy Keeps On . . . Drifting Aimlessly

    Well, new job figures are out. And to anyone who actually knows their behind from a small intentionally shovel-excavated spot on the earth’s surface, the new figures for June 2015 are not exactly good news.

    Yes, “official” unemployment is now at 5.3%. But alone, that statistic tells you squat. Since “official” unemployment doesn’t count discouraged workers who’ve said “screw it” and quit looking for work, it is actually possible for the economy to lose jobs while unemployment goes down at the same time.

    That’s pretty much what happened last month. Unemployment went down because so many people said the hell with it and quit looking for a job – not because the economy created a plethora of new jobs (job creation was lower than during the previous month). Oh, and wages are effectively stagnant right now, too.

    The most meaningful number for gauging the state of the economy is the labor participation rate. And there, the news isn’t so good.

    The US labor participation rate is the fraction of the civilian labor force (more precisely, the civilian non-institutional population) that is either actually working or actively looking for work. Today, the US civilian labor force is 250,663,000. But of that group, only a total of 157,037,000 are actively participating today – 148,739,000 are working, while another 8,299,000 are actively looking for work.

    That’s a labor participation rate of 62.6%. The US labor participation rate hasn’t been that low since the first year of the Carter Administration – in October 1977, to be precise. That month it was 62.4%; it hasn’t been below 62.7% since.  Until last month, that is.

    Let’s put that in perspective. In January 2009, the US labor participation rate was 65.7%. If that were the case today, the US labor force would have 164,686,000 people either working or actively looking for work.  With 5.3% unemployment, a 65.7% participation rate would mean we’d need 156,397,000 people working – or about 7.65 million more jobs than exist today.  With the number that are working working today – 148,739,000 – if we had a labor participation rate of 65.7% we’d have a 9.7% unemployment rate.

    Even if unemployment today were the same as it was in January 2009 (7.8%), with a 65.7% labor participation rate we’d need about 152,770,000 people working. We’re well over 4 million jobs short of that, too.

    “Recovery”?  Yeah, right.  In the best measure of economic wellness – labor participation rate – the US economy is at freaking Carter Administration levels.

    And we’ve been at those levels for a while, too.  The labor participation rate has been stuck at Carter Administration levels since January 2012 – or for the last 3 1/2 years.

    “Recovery”?  What damn recovery?  The economy is still stuck in neutral, and has been for 3 1/2 years.  Before that, it was in free-fall for about 3 years.

    Call me when the labor participation rate has been rising consistently for a few months. Then we can talk seriously about an economic “recovery” having begun.

  • Aw, Sh!t – Not Again

    Liberia confirms third Ebola case in new outbreak

    That “show” kinda sucked the first time around.  We could do without a sequel.

    But if we get a sequel, I’m guessing the      clueless group of fools in DC       current Administration will have the same attitude that they did last time.   You know:  “Don’t worry, be happy, can’t happen here”.   And that means they’ll again fail to implement common-sense travel policies and safeguards.

    Play with fire often enough, and eventually you’re gonna get burned.  As far as I know, that little truism remains . . . true.