This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: Politics

  • Finally some clarity on the NIE Iran report

    I pretty much quit blogging after the release of the NIE report the other day, because it seemed like a muddled mess of polical posturing and I’ve read eveything I could get my hands on about this particular subject. But nothing blog-worthy.

    Until now. Today, John Bolton has turned on the lights in the Washington Post;

    Rarely has a document from the supposedly hidden world of intelligence had such an impact as the National Intelligence Estimate released this week. Rarely has an administration been so unprepared for such an event. And rarely have vehement critics of the “intelligence community” on issues such as Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction reversed themselves so quickly.

    All this shows that we not only have a problem interpreting what the mullahs in Tehran are up to, but also a more fundamental problem: Too much of the intelligence community is engaging in policy formulation rather than “intelligence” analysis, and too many in Congress and the media are happy about it. President Bush may not be able to repair his Iran policy (which was not rigorous enough to begin with) in his last year, but he would leave a lasting legacy by returning the intelligence world to its proper function.

    Please read it all.

  • Government Intervention for Dummies

    There’s risk in everything we do. The cost of that risk is priced into everything we buy. The less risk we assume for ourselves, the more we pay for things – because we’re paying someone else to assume our risk. The more risk we’re willing to withstand the less we pay for stuff.

    A good example is a mutual fund company – some mutual fund companies have high sales charges because their funds are only sold through advisers who help us manage our risk. Other mutual funds have small or no sales charges – but those funds are not sold along with an advisor to help you manage your risk. If you chose the no-fee mutual funds, you’re willing to accept the risk that you might choose a fund that’s wrong for you. If you choose a fund with an advisor, you’re admitting that you want someone to help you invest your money.

    Well, now the President wants to manage our risk for us (Wall Street Journal). Two years ago, people bought houses at historically low interest rates. Since the interest rates were historically low, a rational person with even a cursory knowledge of how interest rates function would have to figure that interest rates are bound to go up. And now that rates have gone up – unsurprisingly – homeowners are all standing around with their mouths wide open and asking “how could this happen?”

    The President wants to freeze interest rates for five years – taking the risk out of variable rate loan. The thing is, those mortagage companies gave those loans out, assuming the risk that rates would rise, accepting lower profits and anticipating increased revenue in the future. I didn’t hear anyone calling to bail out mortgage companies, nor was there a call to freeze interest rates before they sank even lower.

    So now the President is going to freeze rates. And freeze means rates won’t go up or down.  I included “or down” for a reason – when interest rates fall (and they will fall at sometime in the next five years), who wants to bet that Democrats will be screaming that whoever is President at the time should unfreeze interest rates so homeowners can take advantage of that lowered rate?

    Well, Hillary Clinton said President Bush was “asleep at the switch” during this next new “crisis” the Democrats need for an issue and John Edwards said we should freeze rates for seven years. High interest rates won’t last for five years, let alone seven years – the prettiest women in the campaign are just trying to squeeze out more publicity before the President drains it today when he announces his plan.

    But, to my main point; if government is going to take risk out variable rate mortgages, someone is going to pay for that risk. It won’t be the mortgage companies because they’ll pass their costs on the consumers, it probably won’t be the people who benefit most, the idiots who get their investment and homebuying advice from CNBC. More than likely it’ll be the taxpayers – and the responsible people who buy homes knowing full well what a variable rate mortgage does. There’ll be higher fees for mortgages and of course government guarentees to entice mortgage companies to go along with the President’s plan which will only end up costing taxpayers.

    The President’s solution is a short term fix to a bigger problem; the perception that government can solve all of our problems and that government should always be ready to bail out the morons.

  • Iran’s nuke program and the NIE

    If anyone really believes the cock and bull assumption in the latest National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iran’s nuclear weapon potential, think again.  Ahmadinejad is one of the most duplicitous, lying, brutal, terrorist dictators in the Middle East, and all of a sudden we’re supposed to believe that he’s given up on developing nukes?   

    If you buy that shit, I’ve got a bridge on the corner of East Erie and Broadway in my hometown for sale….cheap.

    A highly controversial, 150 page National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programs was coordinated and written by former State Department political and intelligence analysts — not by more seasoned members of the U.S. intelligence community, Newsmax has learned.

    Its most dramatic conclusion — that Iran shut down its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in response to international pressure — is based on a single, unvetted source who provided information to a foreign intelligence service and has not been interviewed directly by the United States.

    Newsmax sources in Tehran believe that Washington has fallen for “a deliberate disinformation campaign” cooked up by the Revolutionary Guards, who laundered fake information and fed it to the United States through Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers posing as senior diplomats in Europe.

    ……The National Intelligence Council, which produced the NIE, is chaired by Thomas Fingar, “a State Department intelligence analyst with no known overseas experience who briefly headed the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research……

    Fingar was a key partner of Senate Democrats in their successful effort to derail the confirmation of John Bolton in the spring of 2005 to become the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations. As the head of the NIC, Fingar has gone out of his way to fire analysts “who asked the wrong questions,” and who challenged the politically-correct views held by Fingar and his former State Department colleagues……

    In March 2007, Fingar fired his top Cuba and Venezuela analyst, Norman Bailey, after he warned of the growing alliance between Castro and Chavez.

    Bailey’s departure from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was applauded by the Cuban government news service Granma, who called Bailey “a patent relic of the Reagan regime.” And Fingar was just one of a coterie of State Department officials brought over to ODNI by the first director, career State Department official John Negroponte.

    Collaborating with Fingar on the Iran estimate, released on Monday, were Kenneth Brill, the director of the National Counterproliferation Center, and Vann H. Van Diepen, the National Intelligence officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation.

    “Van Diepen was an enormous problem,” a former colleague of his from the State Department told me when I was fact gathering for “Shadow Warriors.”

    “He was insubordinate, hated WMD sanctions, and strived not to implement them,” even though it was his specific responsibility at State to do so, the former colleague told me.

    Kenneth Brill, also a career foreign service officer, had been the U.S. representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna in 2003-2004 before he was forced into retirement.

    ……“While in Vienna, Brill consistently failed to confront Iran once its clandestine nuclear weapons program was exposed in February 2003, and had to be woken up with the bureaucratic equivalent of a cattle prod to deliver a single speech condemning Iran’s eighteen year history of nuclear cheating.”

    Negroponte rehabilitated Brill and brought the man who single-handedly failed to object to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and put him in charge of counter-proliferation efforts for the entire intelligence community.

    Christian Westermann, another favorite of Senate Democrats in the Bolton confirmation hearings, was among the career State Department analysts tapped by Fingar and Brill.

    As a State Department intelligence analyst, Westermann had missed the signs of biological weapons development in Cuba, and played into the hands of Castro apologist Sen. Christopher Dodd, D, Conn., by continuing to use impeached intelligence reports on Cuba that had been written by self-avowed Cuban spy, Ana Belen Montes.

    “After failing to recognize the signs of biological weapons development in Cuba and Cuba’s cooperation with Iran, Westermann was promoted to become national intelligence officer for biological weapons,” I wrote.

    “Let’s hope a walk-in defector from Iranian intelligence doesn’t tell us that Iran has given biological weapons to terrorists to attack new York or Chicago,” I added, “because Westermann will certainly object that the source of that information was not reliable — at least, until Americans start dying.”

    ……My former colleague from the Washington Times, Bill Gertz, suggests in today’s print edition of the paper that Revolutionary Guards Gen. Alireza Asgari, who defected while in Turkey in February, was the human source whose information led to the NIE”s conclusion that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

    But intelligence sources in Europe told Newsmax in late September that Asgari’s debriefings on Iran’s nuclear weapons programs were “so dramatic” that they caused French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his foreign minister to speak out publicly about the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

    ……Ashgari is the highest-level Iranian official to have defected to the West since the Islamic revolution of 1979. His defection set off a panic in Tehran.

    As a senior member of the general staff of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, Asgari had access to highly-classified intelligence information, as well as strategic planning documents, as I reported at the time.

    A damage assessment then underway in Tehran was expected to “take months” to complete, so extensive was Asgari’s access to Iran’s nuclear and intelligence secrets.

    Asgari had detailed knowledge of Iranian Revolutionary Guards units operating in Iraq and Lebanon because he had trained some of them. He also knew some of the secrets of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, because he had been a top procurement officer and a deputy minister of defense in charge of logistics. But Asgari never had responsibility for nuclear weapons development, and probably did not have access to information about the status of the secret programs being run by the Revolutionary Guards, Iranian sources tell Newsmax.

    In an effort to cover up the failure of Iranian counter-intelligence to prevent Asgari’s defection, a Persian language Web site run by the former Revolutioanry Guards Comdr. Gen. Mohsen Rezai claimed in March that Asgari was on a CIA “hit list” of 20 former Revolutionary Guards officers and had been assassinated.

    ……The NIE opined that the new assessment leads to the policy conclusion that the United States should offer “some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunites,” in order to lock in Iranian good behavior.

    This carrot and stick approach has been the State Department’s preferred policy for the past 27 years, and has only strengthened the resolve of Iran’s leaders to continue defying the United States. “Those [countries that] assume that decaying methods such as psychological war, political propaganda and the so-called economic sanctions would work and prevent Iran’s fast drive toward progress are mistaken,” Ahmadinejad said in Tehran in September at a military parade.

    By “progress” Ahmadinejad was referring to Iran’s recently-declared success at enriching uranium.

    Link: http://newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nukes/2007/12/04/54359.html

    The fact remains that Iran is still enriching uranium and may very well have a nuclear weapon within the next decade. Between the rigging by leftwing Democrats, questionable sources, and lack of cross checking, you can use this NIE to line your bird cage.

  • Los Tres Chiflados of Socialism

    Hugo Chavez suffered a humiliating defeat Sunday in Venezuela when he lost his bid to rewrite the Constitution in his favor – but it ain’t over, yet. Chavez has promised to return time and again and he got moral support from his Tio Fidel;

    “Don’t feel sad,” he told his supporters, pointing out the razor-thin margin by which they were defeated.

    He said he recognized his plans to enshrine his vision of a socialist economy in Venezuela’s charter had been thwarted “for now” — but stressed he would not give up.

    The opposition had won a “Pyrrhic victory,” he claimed, adding that he would not “change one comma” of his plan.

    The result was disappointing for ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro and his regime, which views Chavez as a close ally and relies heavily on Venezuelan oil shipments.

    But Castro praised Chavez for how he faced up to defeat.

    “Dear Hugo: I send you revolutionary congratulations for your speech today, which was a ‘Veni, vidi, vici’ of dignity and ethics,” Castro said in a message relayed by state television, referring to the Latin phrase uttered by a victorious Julius Ceasar — “I came, I saw, I conquered.”

    Bloomberg reports that privately Chavez blames the Legislature for the failure of his proposals;

    Chavez, who met government advisors and military commanders outside Caracas to wait for the results, said congress hindered the plan’s passage by splitting it into two blocks, the Caracas- based daily reported, citing the unidentified witnesses. Chavez also said his Venezuelan Unified Socialist Party lacked leadership, Nacional reported.  

    Wall Street Journal’s John Lyons and Jose de Cordoba write that Chavez’ defeat will have far-reaching consequences;

    Mr. Chávez’s defeat will ripple across Latin America, hurting allies in countries like Bolivia and Ecuador and boosting moderates in Brazil and Chile. For the U.S. and Europe, a weaker Mr. Chávez is welcome news. The former military officer has been increasingly hostile to Western interests in the past few years, nationalizing key areas of the economy like the oil industry, telecommunications and utilities.

    Bolivia’s Evo Morales has mandated that the Assembly write a new constitution for Bolivia (New America Media);

    Evo Morales, the first Indian president of the country, is forcing a showdown with the oligarchy and the right wing political parties that have stymied efforts to draft a new constitution to transform the nation. He declares, “Dead or alive I will have a new constitution for the country by December 14,” the mandated date for the specially elected Constituent Assembly to present a constitution for the country to vote on by popular referendum.

    Morales’ opposition in Boliva hopes that Chavez’ defeat portends the defeat of socialist Morales’ own plans;

    The opposition to the left-wing populist government in Bolivia on Monday celebrated the rejection of a referendum on constitutional reform in Venezuela. Several leaders, including Bolivian President Evo Morales and Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, appear to be following some of the steps that Chavez took since gaining power. Efforts to draft new constitutions are in place in both Bolivia and Ecuador.

    “The defeat of Hugo Chavez is a sign in the sense that authoritarianism will not prevail in Venezuela, and neither will it prevail in Bolivia,” said opposition Senator Fernando Rodriguez.

    Spanish Pundit writes that some Bolivians are staging a hunger strike against Morales’ constitutional proposals;

    Prefects and political leaders of Civic Commitees who are against President Evo Morales, began yesterday their announced hunger strike to reject the law which was passed by the oficialist supporters, cutting off their revenues and against the Constitution project, irregularly passed by the Constituent Assembly.

    In an atmosphere of growing tension, the prefects (gobernators) and civic leaders of the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Tarija and Pando ratified their measure of civil resistence announced the past week against the Government. 

    The third stooge, Rafael Correa, in Equador, has turned over control of the state-run oil company to his Navy (Bloomberg);

    Ecuador appointed Navy officers to lead the state-owned oil company’s three biggest divisions, deepening the armed forces’ control of PetroEcuador.

    Patricio Goyes will run the production unit, Carlos Albuja will head refining, and Marco Salinas will oversee sales of oil and other fuels, the company said today in an e-mailed statement.

    The personnel moves come after President Rafael Correa last week named a Navy admiral to run the company, which produces about half of the Andean country’s roughly 500,000 barrels in daily output. He handed control to the military after a week of protests in the Amazon region shut some output.

    Pretty smart – it makes the military more loyal to Correa and makes Correa less dependant on popular will.

    Chavez’ defeat Sunday may be the beginning of the end of the socialist movement in South America – but its a long row to hoe. 

  • Obama’s credit card bill of rights

    You’re an idiot and Obama knows it – he’s going to save you from yourself (AP);

    Democrat Barack Obama called for new restrictions on “predatory” credit card companies he says deceive consumers into piling up massive debt they have little hope of repaying.

    “The truth is, our middle-class families are not going to be secure so long as they can’t get out of debt,” Obama said Monday, sharpening the populist rhetoric of his presidential campaign. “If we’re serious about stopping Americans from falling deeper in debt, we’ve got to crack down on predatory credit card companies that are pushing them over the edge.”

    Obama pointed to studies showing that consumers have an average personal debt of more than $8,000, a load driven higher by credit cards. He said soaring credit card debt could turn into a crisis as big as the one in the subprime mortgage industry.

    “The larger risk is that what’s happening in the housing market could lead to a slowdown in the entire economy,” he said.

    The Illinois senator made his comments in a statement and in a discussion with debt counselors and consumers who have struggled with credit card debt.

    Obama’s “credit card bill of rights” would force credit card companies to give consumers the option of dropping out of an agreement if the companies raise interest rates.

    There’s already a an option for “dropping out of an agreement” – it’s called not borrowing more than you can afford to repay. When my credit fell into disrepair several years ago, the so-called predatory credit card companies were the only ones who’d give me credit so I could rebuild my credit – but I didn’t abuse it. I used it to my advantage and my credit is spotless today.

    If the government puts restrictions on those credit card companies and enact a “bill of rights” (what a stupid over use of a phrase), the so-called predatory credit card companies won’t lend to poor risks. Just like government restrictions have forced banks to be careful about who has an account in their banks has created a class with no bank accounts, government restrictions will create a class with no credit.

    This is more populist drivel from the Democrats – they make it sound like they’re going to bail people out, but in the long run, they’ll only make things worse for everyone. People bought houses they couldn’t afford and their losing those homes because they listened to CNBC and the other TV personalities pretending to be experts. Now they’ve got debt they can’t afford because they thought the Capitol One barbarians were funny.

    But Obama’s gonnna save them. And you.

  • Still Stupid After All These Years

    Somethings never change.
    Cynthia McKinney wants to be on the ballot in all 51 states.
    Here’s a screenshot for ya:
    Fifty-one?
    If you needed another reason to not vote for her, she doesn’t know how many states there are…

  • Senile Reid denies his face has a nose

    According to Politico (h/t Crotchety Old Bastard) Harry Reid thinks it’s still 2006;

    But Reid, in a Monday press conference, ceded no ground.

    “The surge hasn’t accomplished its goals,” Reid said. “… We’re involved, still, in an intractable civil war.”

    A civil war, Harry? Really? Aside from the glaring statistics (like these from Gateway Pundit) you should catch the news from last week at Kuwait News Agency (h/t Dreams Into Lightening)?

    Leading Shiite cleric in Iraq Ali Sistani Tuesday banned the killing of Iraqis, particularly the Sunnis, and urged the Shiites to protect their brother Sunnis.

    Sistani bans the Iraqi blood in general the blood of Sunnis in particular. His announcement came during a meeting with a delegation from Sunni clerics from southern and northern Iraq.

    The clerics are visiting Najaf to participate in the first national conference for Ulemaa of Shiites and Sunnis.

    Sistani called on the Shiites to protect their Sunni brothers, according to Sheikh Khaled Al-Mulla, head of the authority of Ulemaa of Southern Iraq, noting that the Fatwa of Sistani would have positive impacts nationwide.
    “I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shitte or a Kurd or a Christian,” Al-Mulla quoted Sistani as saying during the meeting.

    Sistani warned the Sunni clerics from the plans of the enemies to plant seeds of discord among the Iraqis.

    The visiting delegation voiced relief for the meeting and said they backed Sistani’s stance.

    Threats Watch explains the significance of Sistani’s fatwa;

    Western observers should note the significance of Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Among the world’s Shi’a, he is seen as a direct (and rational) competitor to Iran’s radical Ayatollah Khameini for the true leadership of the Shi’a ummah (community). Many in fact have already seen him as the true leader of the Shi’a. Unlike Khameini, Sistani sees room for democratic governance and a separation between the mosque and government.

    So, Sistani (al Sadr’s mentor, if anyone is keeping track) has forbidden Iraqis to kill each other – that kind of puts to rest the whole civil war thing, doesn’t it? I mean Murtha had to concede last week, for cripes sake. It’s as plain as the nose on your face, Harry.

    UPDATE: Brian Faughnan at The Weekly Standard Blog writes that Reid is prepared to cave on funding the war but Rollcall says the Democrats plan on using the short session to blackmail the Republicans into caving by holding their Christmas break hostage.

  • CNN: Corrupt News Network

    Tim Rutten’s LA Times column doesn’t pull many punches.

    A self-serving agenda was set for the Republican presidential debates.
    December 1, 2007

    THE United States is at war in the Middle East and Central Asia, the economy is writhing like a snake with a broken back, oil prices are relentlessly climbing toward $100 a barrel and an increasing number of Americans just can’t afford to be sick with anything that won’t be treated with aspirin and bed rest.

    So, when CNN brought the Republican presidential candidates together this week for what is loosely termed a “debate,” what did the country get but a discussion of immigration, Biblical inerrancy and the propriety of flying the Confederate flag?

    In fact, this most recent debacle masquerading as a presidential debate raises serious questions about whether CNN is ethically or professionally suitable to play the political role the Democratic and Republican parties recently have conceded it.

    I’m stunned. This level of bashing of a fellow liberal institution is amazing. My guess is Rutten was instructed to report on this latest of the unending series of debates and was not happy with his assignment, so when presented with an opportunity to go a little off the reservation in slapping around CNN he leapt in with both feet. Which, of course, isn’t to say that his allegations of corruption aren’t true. Anyone with eyes and a willingness to see can observe CNN’s rampant anti-conservative and anti-republican biases.

    Jonn added: I was just reading that at Invincible Armor, apparently while Don Carl was writing it – I just didn’t want mRed to think I was hijacking his stories without credit in case he saw me there.

    But, my thoughts; Corrupt? Nope. Unethical? Yep. But we’ve all known since the Clinton Impeachment upon which side CNN came down in politics. The Republicans are trying to be magnamous and have a big inclusive tent. CNN and the Democrats want to exploit our good nature.

    If any Republican candidate accepts an invitation to do anything at CNN again, they get what they deserve for trying to be friendly with a rabid Clinton beast like CNN.