Category: Economy

  • Pyrrhus Would Understand

    Remember that “big victory” we heard about recently for the state of Nevada? You know, the one where Tesla Motors announced that they would build their huge, $5 billion, high-tech battery factory in Nevada vice California, Arizona, Texas, or New Mexico?

    Well, that victory apparently came with a price: somewhere between $2 billion and $3 billion in tax incentives from Nevada. That works out to somewhere between 50 and 60 percent of the cost of building the Tesla-owned facility.

    From Tesla’s latest regulatory filings:

    The total capital expenditures associated with the gigafactory through 2020 are expected to be $4-5 billion (sic), of which approximately $2 billion is expected to come from Tesla.

    And where will the rest of the money to build for the factory come from?  Nevada taxpayers will be on the hook for it.  That’s kinda how tax incentives work.

    There are a few other things about the deal that would bother me if I were a Nevada resident, too.  Like the fact that Tesla currently has roughly $2.6 billion in cash – and around $4 billion in liabilities.

    There’s also this:

    “Tesla has also disclosed its overhead costs are now rising 20% on a year-over-year basis, and research and development expenses are increasing 30%.”

    Finally, Tesla’s current business plans project that they’ll be making (and, presumably, selling) 500,000 electric vehicles annually by 2020. Tesla also expects their new battery factory to reduce costs of battery pack production vis-à-vis current sources by more than 30% per-killowatt-hour.

    Somehow, I just don’t see both of those happening.

    Hey, I hope this works out for the good people of Nevada. But I can’t help thinking – based on what we’ve seen from other similar “green energy”       boondoggles      efforts going belly-up over the past few years – is that there’s a better-than-even chance they’ll end up quoting Pyrrus of Epirus concerning the Battle of Asculum:

    “One more such victory, and we shall be undone.”

  • About That Economic Recovery . . . .

    Well, we all have heard that the economy is “recovering”. Hell, seems to me we’ve been hearing that for around 5 years now. (smile)

    But I’m not really sure I wanna buy that. Irrespective of the fact that I’d look outside at 10AM if the current Administration told me it was daytime, there are a few other troubling indicators.

    Like what? Well, like the fact that the US labor participation rate has been mired in the 62.8 to 63.0 percent range for nearly a year (since October of last year, or for the past 11 months). Prior to October 2013, the last time the civilian labor participation rate was that low was during the Carter Administration – in April 1978.

    In contrast, in January 2009 the labor participation rate was 65.7 percent. The “so what”?  That means that there are between 5 and 6 million fewer people working today than would be working if the economy was in as good a shape, employment-wise, as it was in January 2009.

    That doesn’t sound much like a recovery to me.  But what do I know?

    The reason for the drop in the fraction employed? A sh!tload of people have simply become discouraged, left the US labor force, and are no longer even bothering to look for work. In fact, so many people quit the labor force last month that unemployment actually fell a bit last month – in spite of the fact that job creation last month was the lowest in any month this year, and was far below expectations.

    Oh, and BLS job creation figures for June and July were revised downward by 28,000, too.  That (downward revision of previously-published job creation figures) seems to be happening a lot, too.

    Again:  doesn’t sound much like a recovery to me.

    This Carteresque economic malaise is mirrored in the activities of those who are currently counted as “officially unemployed”. The situation regarding finding work is so bad that an “officially unemployed” person is actually statictically more likely to be found spending time shopping for items other than groceries or gas or engaging in recreational/leisure activities than in looking for workSeems to me that someone needing a job to support themselves and their family would spend more time looking for employment than shopping for nonessential items or recreation – but that’s just me.

    If there were any significant number of jobs to be had, that is.

    However, I do wonder how anyone seeking a job can manage to come up with the money to keep doing that for months or years at a time – I certainly wish I could.  Like the man said: “Oh, that ain’t workin’ – that’s the way to do it . . . . “

    But I guess I can understand why the unemployed are shopping for things other than groceries with the few dollars or benefits they can scrape together. Milk futures have now hit an all-time high, having risen 24% this year alone. This means that we can expect to see milk – already at $3.65 a gallon – to rise in price in the coming months.  Ditto anything that has milk or dairy products as a primary ingredient.

    This is really no surprise to anyone who’s been buying groceries this year.  Inflation for food is outstripping inflation in general substantially.

    You know, if I didn’t know better I’d ask, “What freaking recovery?”  But the Administration says the economy is recovering nicely.  So I must be wrong.

    . . .

    Yeah, those “happy days” are truly here again. We should all bow down before the all-knowing current Administration and paean their efforts to restore the US economy!

  • The minimum wage discussion

    The minimum wage discussion

    BLS

    Yesterday being Labor Day, the President took the opportunity to shift the discussion from the myriad issues he’s facing to the minimum wage. From CBS News;

    “I’ve got a vision of an economy where opportunity is open to everybody who’s willing to work hard,” the president said. “I want an economy where your hard work pays off with higher wages and higher incomes and fair pay for women and workplace flexibility for parents and affordable health insurance and decent retirement benefits. I’m not asking for the moon! I just want a good deal for American workers.

    “…If we had a Congress that cared about policies that actually helped working people, I promise you we could get everything done that we talked about doing,” he added. “But until we have that Congress its up to us to fight for those policies.”

    I’ve earned the minimum wage exactly twice in my life – when I worked at a grocery store while I was in high school and again when I worked two minimum wage jobs while I was going to college. One job was with Pinkerton as a security guard and my wages went up after I worked there 90 days. The other minimum wage job while I was in college was as a work/study in the campus Veterans’ Affairs office – that one didn’t increase.

    So who are we talking about when we talk about minimum wage workers? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they’re only about 4.3% of the work force – the lowest number of minimum wage earners since the Bush Administration;

    Percentage of workforce

    Most of them are in the food service industry, you know, those folks who get tips to augment their low wages;

    Percentage by occupation

    And more than 25% of them are high school- and college-aged;

    Minimum wage demographics

    The number is so insignificant, why is the President even mentioning it, you know what with all of the other issues that he’s facing? Probably because he’s a community organizer and the other issues are hard, but this one is fairly easy – all he has to do is act like it’s more important than it really is so people think he cares. It’s all an image thing. Stopping global terrorism, the invasion on our southern border, well, that’s hard stuff. Looking like you care, well, that’s easy.

  • Burger King Is Moving to Canada

    The Burger King corporation is apparently negotiating to acquire Canada’s Tim Horton’s doughnut shop chain.  And if it does, that could have some interesting fiscal effects.

    The acquisition might also result in Burger King becoming a Canadian company.  The merger may cause Burger King’s corporate headquarters to relocate to Canada – specifically, to Oakville, Ontario.

    Why?  In a word:  money.  Lots of money.

    In Ontario, corporate taxes (combined Canadian Federal and Ontario provincial) are far lower than US corporate taxes – nearly 25% lower, actually.  The company would save beaucoup bucks in taxes with the move.  And a stock swap as part of the acquisition of Tim Horton’s by Burger King could easily satisfy the 20+% foreign ownership share required under US law for the resulting company to be considered foreign-owned – and thus foreign-taxed.

    This article from Forbes gives more details.  IMO it’s worth reading.

    Our “fine liberal brethren” tell us we must tax the hell out of those “nasty, evil” corporations to pay for all that “free” stuff they want to give everyone.  But I’m wondering what we’re supposed to do when all the money goes bye-bye – along with all the jobs – after corporations have had enough, say “Screw this”, and move to another country where they can get a better deal.

    At some point, corporations will vote with their feet too. Money talks – quite persuasively.

    I guess we’re supposed to just sit around with our thumbs firmly inserted while we bitch to each other on our “free” phones.

     

    Author’s Note:  the deal has been confirmed.  The article’s title has been revised to reflect that.  Now, time to start practicing saying, “How ’bout a Whopper with cheese, eh?”

    No word on whether or not poutine will be added to the menu here.  (smile)

  • Such a Simple Concept, Even Conan the Barbarian “Got It”

    So, why can’t our Federal government figure it out – and fix the problem?

    Enjoy. (smile)



  • So, AboutThat “Model Telework” Program the Administration Touts as a “Success Story” . . . .

    To be blunt: in reality, it . . . sucks.

    The current administration has touted the US Patent and Trademark Office’s telework as a “model program” for the Federal government. So, it must be well-run; have few problems; and very little abuse, right?

    Yeah, right. Just like I’m the freaking rightful Emperor of China.

    It seems that the PTO’s telework program is, in reality, not a good model at all.  Except maybe of how to run a proverbial “gravy train” for people wanting something for nothing.

    Abuse is rife. Repeat offenders remain unfired. Managers have difficulty in getting computer records to check work-from-home claims.

    Or, more succinctly:  it sucks – from the perspective of the US taxpayer, anyway.  For those “ridin’ the gravy train”, it’s indeed a sweet deal.

    So, what’s going on, you ask?  Well, in one particularly egregious case, a  PTO employee was paid for 304 hours one calendar year that the individual never worked.  (That’s somewhat over 1 hour in 7.)   That individual was caught – and was warned about their behavior.  The same individual was later caught again falsely claiming to have worked when they did not.

    The individual was not fired.

    In another case, a different worker was caught having falsely claimed to have worked 266 hours,.  However, that individual was not charged with fraud.  Why?  Because the individual’s supervisor couldn’t seem to get the computer records needed to substantiate fraud. (The individual did get disciplined for failing to contact their supervisor in a timely manner when requested to do so.)

    The second individual was reportedly never required to pay back Uncle Sam the $12+k in salary received for those 266 hours, either.

    Why all the problems? Apparently because of negotiated union work rules – as well as “other issues”.  Like maybe possible attempts by senior management to hide or downplay the severity of the problem.

    It seems the Commerce Department’s IG investigated the PTO’s telework program problems when the matter was referred to them by PTO management after an internal review.  But the internal review report given to the Commerce IG as their starting point was a far cry from the original report prepared by the group doing the initial review. Many of the worst abuses were for some reason missing from the revised internal review report given to the Commerce Department IG.

    You know, to me that almost looks like maybe someone was trying to downplay the seriousness of the matter and/or hide the true scope of the problem from the IG.  But what do I know?  And besides, people never try to hide things from the IG, right?

    The Washington Post has a moderately long article on the subject with more details. Read it if you want to get p!ssed – but maybe not right after eating.

    Oh, and if you’re thinking to yourself that you remember hearing something else fishy about the PTO recently:  you’d be correct.  That’s the same Federal agency that recently was found to have a sh!tload of paralegals sitting at home getting paid for doing nothing (they had been hired, but because of a lack of Admin Law judges there was no legitimate work for them to do.)

    Sheesh.  I guess the management and employees at the PTO must all own stock in Purina.  (That’s the company that makes “Gravy Train” dog food.)

    . . .

    “Most transparent administration in history?” Well yeah – if you’re talking about the most transparently incompetent one.

  • An Updated “How Bad You’re Getting Screwed by Social Security” Calculator

    About 2 years ago, I published an article here at TAH on the above subject.  That article dealt with how we might have privatized Social Security in the early 1980s (the proposal was seriously discussed).  It also included a downloadble Excel spreadsheet to calculate what benefits a hypothetical “Super IRA” based on individual contributions with mandatory employer matching in the same amounts as your Social Security taxes (the OASD part) would have provided.  The assumption was that this “Super IRA” was invested in a hypothetical investment fund tracked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), much like many mutual funds do today.

    The subject came up again yesterday in the comments to this article. So I decided to update the previous spreadsheet with new data.  It’s now current through July 2014.  File format is Excel 97-2003.

    Use it by filling in your own data, then using the links in the prior article on the subject to get an estimate of your possible future Social Security benefits.  (If Congress doesn’t reduce or eliminate them before you become eligible for them, of course.)  Embedded comments in the spreadsheet should answer most questions.

    Be forewarned – if you choose to use the spreadsheet, there’s a good chance you’ll probably be rather . . . . disappointed.  Or disgusted.

  • A Bit of Federal Debt Math

    Total Federal Debt, 20 January 2009:  $10,626,877,048,913.08

    Total Federal Debt, 31 July 2014:  $17,687,136,723,410.59

    Elapsed time:  5 years 6 months 12 days

    Total additional Federal debt during this period:  $7,060,259,674,497.51 ($7.060 trillion)

    Average additional Federal debt incurred per year:  $1,277,246,085,245.28 ($1.277 trillion)

    Average additional Federal debt incurred per day:  $3,496,909,199.85 ($3.497 billion)

    Average additional Federal debt incurred per hour:  $145,776,752.45

    Average additional Federal debt incurred per minute:  $2,429,612.54  (It should take around 1 or 2 minutes to read this article.  During that time, Uncle Sam went between $2.4 million and $4.9 million farther in debt.)

    Average additional Federal debt incurred per second:  $40,493.54

     

    Source: this article, plus basic arithmetic.

    . . .

    Yeah, that US economy is chugging right along.  Happy days are here again.