This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: Barack Obama/Joe Biden

  • Yer Latest “Good Economic News”

    Well, the economic news for August is now out.  Short version:  the economy is still in the freaking toilet.

    For the third consecutive month, the US labor participation rate remained at 62.6%.  That means only 62.6% (the actual number, to 6 figures, calculates to 62.5518%) of the US civilian labor force is actually working or actively looking for work.

    This is a 38-year low – for the third straight month.  Prior to the last 3 months, the last time the US labor participation rate was this low or lower was October 1977.  Then, it was 62.4%.

    Yes, that does indeed read October 1977 – as in “during the worst of the Carter years”.

    It’s true that the “official unemployment rate” fell slightly last month, from 5.2% to 5.1%.  But that measure is absolutely worthless, because it tells you nothing about the underlying economic reality.  Here’s why.

    U3 – the “official unemployment rate” – is calculated using only those who are “actively looking for work” but who are unable to find work.  “Actively looking for work” is defined as looking for work within the last 4 weeks.  However, if someone has gotten completely discouraged and is no longer even looking for work, they’re not counted.  But they still exist.  And at some point in the future, they’ll be looking for work again.

    U3 is such a p!ss-poor measure that it’s even possible for this to cause the “official” unemployment rate to drop while you’re losing jobs overall.  I’ve provided a short example at the end to show how this can occur.

    That appears to be precisely what’s been going on for the past several years.  The US labor participation rate has gone down by 3.1% since January 2009.  That means a huge number of Americans simply aren’t even bothering to look for work that should be looking.  If the labor participation rate were the same today as it was in January 2009, an additional 7.78 million Americans would be in the labor force.

    Today’s US civilian labor force totals over 251 million.  Just for “fun”, let’s calculate what the “official” unemployment rate would be today if we had January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    In January 2009, the US labor participation rate was 65.7%.  If that were the case today, the US civilian labor force would be approximately 164,970,000. (Since the US labor participation rate today is only 62.6%, the civilian labor force today is only about 157,065,000.)

    However, today only about 149,055,000 Americans have jobs.  That means if we had a labor participation rate equal to that of January 2009, we’d have about 15,915,000 unemployed people who were actively looking for work today.

    Doing the math gives an unemployment rate of 9.64+% if we had the January 2009 labor participation rate of 65.7%. Since “official” unemployment in January 2009 was 7.8%, we’d need at least 4.5 million more jobs than exist today to get back to January 2009 economic conditions – and nearly 8 million more to achieve a 5.1% unemployment rate at January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    Oh, and we’re all also taking it in the proverbial shorts regarding purchasing power, too.  Per that wonderful bastion of conservatism called the New York Times, real wages (e.g., adjusted for inflation) have dropped since January 2009 in all earnings quintiles – with the lowest-earning quintile seeing the largest real decline.

    Recovery?  What  freaking recovery? So far, there hasn’t been one.  All we’ve seen is stagnation, along with people becoming discouraged to the point of giving up.  Actual economic recovery?  Um. no.

    It’s been more than 6 and a half years since January 2009.  Are we ever going to see any real economic progress?

    . . . 

    Example Showing Loss of Jobs AND a Decline in “Official” Unemployment

    This simple example assumes no retirements and no new entrants into the job market during the two months in question.  In real world calculations, they’re considered – those are handled by adding new entrants and subtracting retirements, but the example is simpler and easier to follow if we omit those.  FWIW:  since the population is growing, there are typically more new entrants than retirements each month.  In the real world, new job creation must exceed the difference between new entrants and retirements or the unemployment rate will go up.

    First month

    These are the numbers at the beginning of the first month.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000

    Number with jobs:  900,000

    Labor Force:  100,000 + 900,000 = 1,000,000

    Unemployment rate:  100,000  / (100,000 + 900,000) = 10.0%

    Second month

    At the beginning of the second month, 25,000 jobs are cut.  However,  50,000 of the previous month’s “officially” unemployed people got fed up and quit looking for work 5 weeks ago – so they’re no longer counted.  The 25,000 who lost their jobs immediately start looking for new work.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000 (previous month) – 50,000 (quit looking)  + 25,000 (lost jobs, started looking)  =  75,000

    Number with jobs:   875,000

    Labor force:  75,000 + 875,000 = 950,000 (those who quit looking are no longer counted)

    Unemployment rate:  75,000 / ( 75,000 + 875,000) = 7.89%

     

    So, there was a net loss of 25,000 jobs in that month, but because enough people got fed up and quit looking for work  the “official” unemployment rate  dropped by 2.1+%.  Truly a great measure of economic conditions, eh?

     

  • President orders flags lowered until July 25th

    President orders flags lowered until July 25th

    Fox News reports that the White House has finally ordered that flags fly at half-staff until July 25th. I can’t find anything on it at the White House website, but there it is.

    In a proclamation issued early Tuesday afternoon, Obama said of the Chattanooga victims, “We honor their service. We offer our gratitude to the police officers and first responders who stopped the rampage and saved lives. We draw strength from yet another American community that has come together with an unmistakable message to those who would try and do us harm: We do not give in to fear. You cannot divide us. And you will not change our way of life.”

    He ordered flags flown at half-staff at the White House and “all public buildings and grounds,” as well as over military posts and naval stations and vessels — until July 25. Flags will be flown at half-staff at U.S. embassies and other overseas diplomatic offices.

    Congress leaders are already on the ball, so it was only a matter of time before the White House got on board, but it appears that it happened reluctantly, or, like I said, there would have been something on the White House website already – they had more than five days to do something.

    Editor’s Note: My mistake, there is a Proclamation on the website now, that wasn’t there when I wrote this.

    PresProc3

    PresProc2

    In other Chattanooga related news, an uncle of the shooter has been in the custody of Jordan’s law enforcement since the day after the shooting according to the Associated Press;

    Abdel Qader al-Khatib told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he was barred from seeing his client and that family members were prevented from visiting. Al-Khatib identified his client as Asaad Ibrahim Abdulazeez Haj Ali, a maternal uncle of the Tennessee attacker, Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez.

  • Yeah, That REALLY Makes Sense

    Well, it appears that the current       group of fools and tools running things in DC     Administration has a solution to the problem of American citizens being kidnapped by terrorists.

    To help ensure the safety of Americans overseas, they’re going to allow families to pay ransoms to the terrorist if they so desire. And, better yet – they’ll facilitate the families doing so.

    No, I’m not joking. I’m dead serious.

    Yeah, that will really discourage terrorist organizations like ISIS and al Shabaab from targeting Americans. And it will really ensure that all unfortunate enough to be kidnapped get returned safely.

    Sheesh. Does anyone in this Administration have a freaking scrap of common sense? Or a single vertebra in their spine?

  • Doesn’t Surprise Me One Bit

    As Jonn’s previously noted, it seems that a guy named Seymour Hersh – a longtime investigative reporter well-known for his work regarding the US military and Intelligence Community – has looked into the bin Laden raid. His conclusion?

    Well, Hersh says that the POTUS did order the raid. He also says that US Navy SEALs carried it out.

    He also says damn near everything else the current       gang of fools and tools running the show in DC       Administration has said about the raid is . . . well, pretty much bull. From a very long (approx 10,000 word) article Hersh recently published in the London Review of Books:

    This spring I contacted Durrani and told him in detail what I had learned about the bin Laden assault from American sources: that bin Laden had been a prisoner of the ISI at the Abbottabad compound since 2006; that Kayani and Pasha knew of the raid in advance and had made sure that the two helicopters delivering the Seals to Abbottabad could cross Pakistani airspace without triggering any alarms; that the CIA did not learn of bin Laden’s whereabouts by tracking his couriers, as the White House has claimed since May 2011, but from a former senior Pakistani intelligence officer who betrayed the secret in return for much of the $25 million reward offered by the US, and that, while Obama did order the raid and the Seal team did carry it out, many other aspects of the administration’s account were false.

    “Kayani and Pasha” here were Pakistan’s two most senior military leaders at the time of the bin Laden raid.

    Yeah, Hersh is a liberal; I don’t much care for his politics either. But he’s also quite good at what he does. He the guy in the press who first went bigtime public with the My Lai scandal. He beat Jack Anderson to the Glomar Explorer story (Anderson only gets credit for breaking that one because the CIA Director convinced the New York Times – who Hersh worked for at the time – to sit on Hersh’s story about same that was ready considerably earlier than Anderson’s). He’s also gone public with a number of other stories related to various national intel communities and/or governments blatantly lying to the public.

    Jonn’s take on Hersh’s latest is quite different than mine.  FWIW:  best I can tell Hersh has been far closer to right over the years much more often than he’s been wrong when he’s writing about clandestine and/or intel matters. Believe him or not about this one as you like.

    I’d not recommend dismissing out-of-hand his main points here, though. Hersh is one reporter who truly knows how to do his “homework” on this kind of subject – then actually does it before he publishes. Plus, he’s been raising questions about the “official” account of the bin Laden raid for approaching 2 years – and calling out the media for not raising more questions about that account.

    Again:  I don’t agree with Hersh’s politics, but the man knows his business.  And when writing about the intel world, he’s got a pretty good track record.

    As I said earlier, the article is quite long (about 10,000 words) – but if you have some time, IMO it’s damn well worth a read.

    Yeah, IMO your leg was wet again, courtesy of the current Administration, circa mid-2011.  And I’m pretty sure that wasn’t rain.

     

    (PS:  no taradiddles were utilized during the preparation of this article. [smile])

  • Former CIA Deputy Director: “The Arab Spring Was a Boon to Islamic Extremists”

    Now that he’s no longer in office, it appears that the former Deputy Director of the CIA – Michael ­Morell – has decided to make some money as an author.  He’s written a book about his career called The Great War of Our Time.  As you might guess from the title, it focuses largely on post-9/11 events.

    Here’s what he had to say about the “Arab Spring”. It explains quite a bit, actually.

    “We thought and told policy-makers that this outburst of popular revolt would damage al-Qaeda by undermining the group’s narrative. [Instead], the Arab Spring was a boon to Islamic extremists across both the Middle East and North Africa. From a counterterrorism perspective, the Arab Spring had turned to winter.”

    Yeah, that explains – at least in part – why we sat on our hands and watched while longstanding allies went down the tubes.  But it doesn’t explain why we “screwed the pooch” so badly on that call.

    I understand quite well that intel is not an exact science. But historically, whenever an authoritarian regime has collapsed, a temporary power vacuum is created. If there’s not someone immediately around to pick up the pieces, things get chaotic.

    Terrorist organizations do rather well in chaotic situations.  So I kinda wonder why we didn’t foresee the real possibility that the Arab Spring might create a chaotic situation that al Qaeda and its ideological brethren could exploit.

    Maybe it was as simple as a case of “telling the boss what he wanted to hear”. After all, when the boss makes it clear they only want to hear news with which they agree . . . well, that’s what they’ll get, true or not.

    That kinda seems to me to have been the case some 35+ years ago in Iran.  Maybe that’s what happened here too.

    The Washington Post has a reasonably good article about the guy’s book, and briefly covers a few other things he talks about in it as well. If you have a few spare minutes, the article might be worth a read.

  • More Federal Follies

    Time for another synopsis of       sh!tbaggery       “wonderful conduct” from our fine Federal government, courtesy of Drudge.

    From the VA:

    • What? Retaliate against whistleblowers? US? You must be joking!

    • Looks like it’s not just the new Denver VA hospital project that’s got problems.

    • If you’re feeling down . . . looks like you might want to keep several different Suicide Hotline numbers handy, too.

    Meanwhile, from DHS:

    • Yeah, your luggage is really secure when you travel. (Though to be fair, TSA employees don’t seem to be the big offenders here.)

    • But we’re deporting fewer criminals – we must be getting safer, right?

    • And don’t forget those “scanner anomaly” checks. Jonn wrote about those yesterday.

    Finally: speaking of US safety and security these days – we have this “improvement”, too.

    Sheesh. It will be so good to see some adult leadership in DC again.

  • Can You Say, “Whitewash”? Sure. I Knew You Could.

    Continuing on the theme of “transparency”, Lois Lerner – yes, the former IRS bigwig – is back in the news again.

    As I’m sure you remember, some time back Ms. Lerner refused to testify before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The House then asked the Department of Justice to look into whether Lerner was guilty of criminal contempt.

    Well it seems as if the DoJ took a look at her refusal to testify before Congress about the IRS matter. In fact, the DoJ indeed did an “investigation” of Ms. Lerner – if you can call it that. And they’re now done with that “investigation”.

    Wanna guess what they said? Aw, c’mon – take a guess!

    Did you say, “No criminal case will be referred to a grand jury”? No? Well, why not?

    Because that’s exactly what the DoJ said. “Nothing to see here; move along.”

    Yeah, right. If you or I had pulled that stunt, we’d still be behind bars today.

    Sheesh. “Most transparent Administration in history” my freakin’ ass. More like “most obvious flimflam involving whitewash since Tom Sawyer”.

  • More From That “Most Transparent Administration In History”

    Well, the current       DC clown krewe       Administration has been at it again. This time, they’re “helping us” see how our government spends our taxes.

    A Bush Administration law mandates that the US Government set up a website that provided “full disclosure to the public of all entities or organizations receiving federal funds”. The requirement was effective at the beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2007.

    That website evolved into USAspending.com. Until recently, it was actually quite useful and searchable.

    Now, it’s been “improved” by the current Administration’s       political henchmen       employees. And now, when you use it . . . you can’t find squat.

    A cynic would say that’s deliberate, because the previous version rather exposed the current Emperor’s nakedness when it came to wasteful spending occurring on his watch.  But that can’t possibly be the case from this “exemplar of open, honest government” we have in DC today.

    The Washington Free Beacon has an article giving more details. It’s definitely worth spending the time to read it.

    “Most transparent Administration in history” my ass.