This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: Barack Obama/Joe Biden

  • CDC Director Throws 2nd US Ebola Victim “Under the Bus”

    Ya know, I’m getting kinda fed up with that     damnfool      spin doctor      propagandist      talking head     political hack      fine individual we have occupying the slot for CDC Director, Tom Frieden.  Yesterday, this      POTUS sycophant      tool      weasel      person implied, in a public statement to the press, that the second US healthcare worker to contract Ebola – Amber Wilson – had knowingly endangered the public.  His exact words during a conference call with the press were as follows:

    “She should not have traveled on a commercial airline. The CDC guidance in this setting outlines the need for what is called controlled movement. That can include a charter plane, that can include a car, but it does not include public transport.”

    In other words, he’s apparently trying to shift blame to Ms. Wilson for any issues that arise from her travel – and preemptively shift blame away from his agency.  Bluntly:  he’s blaming the victim and throwing her “under the bus” in an attempt to protect his and his agency’s reputations.

    This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention.  Frieden did much the same with the first US Ebola victim, Nina Pham, blaming her exposure to the disease on some kind of “breach of protocol”.  That allegation was later shown to be, shall we say, highly questionable when information on just how poorly equipped and advised the nurses caring for Thomas Duncan were during the first few days of his hospitalization was made public.

    In hindsight, all of what Friden says above might be technically true – but hindsight is always 20/20. And as the late Paul Harvey might have said, there is indeed a “rest of the story”.  That “rest of the story” paints a far different picture.

    It turns out that Wilson – after discovering she had a temperature, but one lower than the level deemed the threshold for concern (100.4F) – in fact contacted CDC prior to flying. She advised them of the fact that she had a temperature, and that it was 99.5F.  Presumably she asked for guidance.

    The CDC personnel she spoke with did not tell her not to fly. So she went ahead and flew home.

    Hmm. So, in other words . . . CDC knew (1) Wilson was at high risk for Ebola exposure, (2) had developed a low-grade fever, and was (3) planning to fly that day.  But CDC personnel did not tell her to stay put.

    Yeah, that really freaking makes sense.

    Sounds to me as if the CDC Director is either dissembling here or he’s clueless as to what’s going on in his agency.  Or maybe both. Either way, his credibility – whatever was left of it after the Dallas debacle – has taken yet another major hit.

    Oh, and the CDC has now notified Frontier Airlines that Ms. Wilson might have been symptomatic while flying home after all. Now ain’t that just “peachy-keen”?

    Sheesh. It’s well past time for this tool to resign as CDC Director.  After the past few weeks, IMO his professional credibility is absolutely shot.  At this point I wouldn’t trust him to give me advice on how to treat constipation, much less direct the US national medical emergency response to a deadly disease.

    Are you listening yet, Mr. President?

     

  • Second Healthcare Worker Positive for Ebola

    Both CNN and Fox News are reporting that a second heathcare worker at Dallas Presbyterian Hospital has contracted Ebola.  The individual was also among those who provided care to Thomas Duncan, the Liberian citizen who imported Ebola to this nation.

    Other troubling allegations have been made by nurses at the hospital.  The  nurses claim that adequate protective gear was not available for the first 3 days of Duncan’s hospitalization.  They also say that training in how to care for Ebola patients was not mandatory, nor was clear guidance as to proper care protocols for Ebola sufferers provided.

    The nurses’ claims were made public by National Nurses United – a nurses union – that does not represent the nurses at Dallas Presbyterian.  National Nurses United claims is not releasing the names of those individuals who are making these allegations, but do claim to have vetted their claims. They also allege that nurses at Dallas Presbyterian have been warned that speaking to the media would result in loss of employment.

    Per the Fox News article, “CDC officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment” when asked about the nurses union’s allegations.  I can’t say that I’m surprised.  The CDC Director, Dr. Thomas Friedman, has rather famously and publicly claimed that any US hospital can properly treat Ebola cases.

    Well, Dr. Friedman:  this incident rather strongly argues differently.   IMO it also calls into question just how well your agency is managing US preparedness for an Ebola outbreak in this country.  Indeed, at least some medical professionals are now of the opinion you should be replaced as CDC Director due to mismanagement of that effort.

    Yeah, I’m guessing that wetness we feel on our legs about now isn’t rain.  Looks to me like we’re being fed a line of BS – yet again – by the      DC clown krewe in charge      current Administration’s senior officials.  Only this time, people are in real danger of dying because of the BS.

    Moreover:  we still haven’t instituted mandatory quarantines for those arriving in the US from the Ebola outbreak area.  We also haven’t banned nonessential travel by US citizens and legal residents to the outbreak area.  And we apparently don’t intend to do so.

    Hello?  Do you comprehend the reality – and the gravity – of the situation yet, Mr. President?  Dr. Friedman?

  • Ebola In the US: Second Case Diagnosed

    A second US Ebola case has been diagnosed.  The second case occurred in a healthcare worker who treated Thomas Duncan.

    Responsibility for this case belongs to the      DC clown krewe in charge     current Administration.  Had they banned entrance to the US for persons from the countries affected by the outbreak – the same thing that multiple other nations have done, including a number in Africa itself – or imposed a mandatory entrance quarantine for individuals from the outbreak area, this second case would never have happened.

    Gee thanks, Mr. President.  Are you and your      clown krewe compadres      subordinates freaking listening yet?

    Let’s hope this is the last US case.  IMO, if it is we’ll be lucky – and, sadly, I’m afraid we won’t be quite that lucky.  I pray I’m wrong.

    Fox News has limited further details.

  • “Previews of Coming Attractions”

    People wonder just how bad the Ebola outbreak could get. Well, with a bit of understanding of the relevant mechanisms, knowledge of the math involved, and a spreadsheet, putting together a “quick and dirty” approximate model for the spread of that disease is relatively easy.

    What it shows may be somewhat hard to swallow. And it is a simplified model; reality will be somewhat more complex. But for the early stages of an epidemic – and we’re still in the relatively early stages of this one – I think this should be relatively close.

    First, a few known facts and/or best estimates for the current outbreak and about Ebola itself.

    1. Although the first case was reported 6 months ago, the current outbreak has actually been ongoing since Dec 2013. The index case infection(s) occurred in Guinea, in late Dec 2013. It simply wasn’t recognized as Ebola for around 3 months.
    2. The mortality rate (percentage of those infected with the disease who die) for a disease outbreak cannot be calculated until after the outbreak has run its course. However, an estimate – the current case fatality rate (CFR) – can be calculated. The CFR is a snapshot in time, and tends to rise during the course of an outbreak as more complete information becomes available and some of the patients sick at the time of last calculation die. For the current outbreak, data indicates that the CFR for the current outbreak is approximately 53%.
    3. The total number of reported Ebola cases during the current outbreak is believed to be only approximately 40% of the actual number of cases.   Roughly 60% of the cases (and deaths)in the current outbreak are believed to have never been reported – or in other words, multiply the current reported totals for cases and deaths by 2.5 to get the best guess at the true number.
    4. Facts and best estimates concerning Ebola virus disease.
    • The average Ebola incubation period seems to be about 10 days (min observed is 2 days; max observed is 21).
    • During incubation, patients are asymptomatic (without symptoms). Individuals are not in general contagious prior to becoming symptomatic.
    • At the onset of symptoms, patients begin shedding the virus in bodily fluids and become contagious.
    • Transmission of Ebola appears to be via human-to-human transmission through close contact and/or contact with contaminated fomites/surfaces. Contact with an symptomatic Ebola sufferer’s bodily fluids (sweat, urine, feces, vomit, semen, vaginal secretions, mucous, saliva, or blood) is believed to be the mechanism by which Ebola is transmitted from person to person. For that reason, shaking hands with or standing within 1 meter of an Ebola patient without PPE is considered close contact.
    • The virus appears to enter the human body through mucous membranes or open wounds.
    • Aerial transmission of Ebola does not appear to be a normal means of transmission from human-to-human. However, the possibility cannot be ruled out. Ebola Reston is believed to have spread between primates in different rooms of the famous Hazelton “monkey house” in Reston, VA, through the facility’s ventilation system. After analysis, aerial transmission through the facility’s ventilation system was determined to have been the most likely mechanism by which that Ebola variant spread.

    How epidemics work.

    An epidemic in an immunologically naïve population (e.g., one that has no previous exposure, and thus no natural resistance to the disease) works and can be modeled at a somewhat simplistic level as follows.

    1. A first case – termed the index case – becomes infected. This begins the first generation of the outbreak.
    2. The index case proceeds through the disease’s incubation period. For Ebola, this is on average 10 days. For Ebola, the individual is not contagious during the incubation period.
    3. The individual becomes contagious. For Ebola, this occurs with the onset of symptoms. Also for Ebola, the period during which a sufferer is contagious lasts until they either recover (average is approximately 16 days) or die (usually around day 10 after onset of symptoms). (One caveat here: the Ebola virus persists in certain organs of recovered Ebola patients for up to 90 days after clinical recovery. Though the recovered patient’s body does eventually rid itself of the virus, transmission to others after recovery can occur. In particular, sexual transmission of Ebola by a “recovered” Ebola patient several weeks after clinical recovery has been recorded.)
    4. Transmission to others occurs during the period while an infected person is contagious. During this period, the individual transmits the disease to some number of other individuals. The average number of persons to whom each sufferer transmits the disease is a critically important parameter, called the “reproduction number”. So long as this number is greater than 1, the number of people infected will continue to increase. It’s just a question of how fast.  For the current Ebola outbreak, the reproduction number is estimated to be somewhere between 1.5 and 2.
    5. The transmission to others referenced in step 4 begins the next generation of the virus. Steps 1 through 4 then repeat.

    That’s it. Until the numbers of persons with some type of immunity to the disease (either through survival or vaccination) in the affected population becomes significant, the above is a reasonably accurate – though somewhat crude – description of how an infectious disease propagates through a susceptible population.  It will hold until something (deaths, developed immunity, behavioral changes, whatever) changes the transmission cycle of the disease – usually by changing the reproduction number.

    Those familiar with calculus might be wondering if this is a process exhibiting exponential growth. The answer, unfortunately, is yes. Epidemics in fully susceptible populations are indeed exponential growth scenarios until “herd immunity” (the fraction of the population immune due to prior exposure or vaccination) becomes significant – or until the population dies out, or something else intervenes to reduce the reproduction number below 1.

    The Model.

    Here is a simplified spreadsheet model I’ve come up with for the current West Africa Ebola outbreak. As noted, it’s a rather crude, “quick and dirty” model. But it gives a reasonable idea of what may be in store; I don’t think it’s grossly in error.  Format is Excel 97-2003.  If anyone with more knowledge of the subject or the parameters in question has criticism or comment, I’m all ears. Getting it right is what’s important.

    Fair warning:  I would suggest you (a) sit down, and (b) get a cup of coffee (or something stronger) before you look at the model.  And I wouldn’t recommend do so immediately after or while eating.

    Assumptions used were the following.

    • Single index case in late Dec 2013.
    • 53% mortality rate.
    • Reproduction number of 1.57
    • Average incubation period of 10 days.
    • Transmission on average occurs (and thus begins the next generation of the epidemic) on day 5 after each infected individual’s symptoms begin.
    • Reported cases and deaths are each 40% of actual.
    • Estimates based on averages are reasonably representative of physical reality and will not be grossly in error.

    For 9 October – the start date of the model’s generation 20 of the outbreak – this model predicted a reported number of cases of 7,724 and a reported number of deaths of 4,090.

    Per the CDC website, on 8 October 2014, the reported number of cases was 8,011; the reported number of deaths was 3,857.

    On the “bright side” – if you can call it that – the model I developed doesn’t predict 1.4 million cases until late Feb/early Mar 2015. Without changes in the outbreak, CDC predicts that number of cases by late January.

    I guess I could say “Happy Halloween” at this point; the above is certainly scary enough. But I don’t see much to be happy about above.

    THIS is why we need to do everything possible to keep this sh!t out of the United States. Period.

    Are you listening, Mr. President?

  • Damn, I Can Hardly Believe It!

    Former President Carter: U.S. “Slow” In Preparing For Ebola

    He said that yesterday.  So that means that Jimmy the Clueless has been correct on a substantive issue twice!

    There’s your proof that a stopped clock really is right twice a day . . . .

  • Oh, This Is Rich . . . .

    Jimmy Carter: President Obama blew it on ISIL

    Carter should certainly recognize “blowing it” when he sees it.  After all, he fornicated Fido “by the numbers and repeatedly” in Iran between Jan 1977 and Dec 1980.

    Oh, well.  I guess even a stopped clock is right twice daily.

     

     

     

  • An Ebola Outbreak Update

    A few links to news stories about the West Africa Ebola outbreak, courtesy of Drudge and other sources:

    And, finally:

    The last linked article also has a collection of other more recent news concerning the outbreak.  Most if not all of those links are not included above.

    IMO, Texas Governor Rick Perry has it right. We need to impose a mandatory quarantine on all persons entering the country who have been in Africa any time during the 21 days prior to entry into the US. And we need to ban nonessential travel to the nations of West Africa where the outbreak is still raging uncontained immediately.

  • Arabs ain’t laughing at Biden gaffe

    Arabs ain’t laughing at Biden gaffe

    I guess only the folks in the US media think that Joe Bite Me is cute when he opens his stupid mouth. The Washington Post reports that the Turks aren’t pleased that he insinuated that they aided ISIS;

    So after Biden claimed that Erdogan had acknowledged fault in enabling the flow of foreign fighters across the Turkish border, it was inevitable that a firestorm would ensue.

    Biden swiftly responded Saturday to a demand by Erdogan for an apology, saying he regretted the criticism of Turkey and also a suggestion that other U.S. allies had helped facilitate the rise of the extremist Islamic State group in Syria.

    So, now the Turks are using that “gaffe” as an excuse to limit their participation in the war against those Islamic State folks. And Joe moves on to piss off some more folks – the Gulf Arabs, according to the Associated Press;

    Vice President Joe Biden says he never meant to imply that the United Arab Emirates was supporting al-Qaida fighters in Syria.

    […]

    Biden had said U.S. allies including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had funded and armed extremist groups linked to al-Qaida. The UAE was exasperated and requested a formal clarification.

    The White House says Biden clarified his remarks and recognized the UAE’s strong steps to counter extremists and participation in U.S.-led airstrikes.

    This administration was bragging how they put together a coalition of Arab states against the Islamic State – now they can brag about how fast the smartest Vice President in our history can destroy that coalition before they get a chance to fire a shot.