Author: Hondo

  • “I just saw what was going on and did what I could to help.”

    Imagine, for a moment, that a man saves the lives of 669 people.  Then imagine that his good deeds remain hidden for almost 50 years – even from his wife.

    You don’t have to imagine that; it’s not fiction.  Such a man died one week ago today.

    His name was Sir Nicholas Winton, of Great Britain.  In late 1938, he was a young stockbroker.  He went to continental Europe on holiday.

    What happened next was . . . remarkable.  In many ways.

    Go here, here, and here for additional details.  I think you’ll be impressed – and likely awed.  You might also want to have a tissue handy.

    Afterwards, Winton kept quiet about what he’d done for nearly 50 years.  The title of this article is how Winton described his actions after they’d become public.

    That to me is nearly as impressive as the acts themselves.

    Sir Nicholas Winton passed away on 1 July 2015.  His last birthday was on 19 May of this year; it was his 106th.

    Rest in peace, Sir Winton.  Rest in well-earned peace.

    . . .

    Postscript:  Ironically, Winton has never received one honor that you might expect.  Although Winton was British and was baptized – and presumably raised – as a Christian, his parents were originally Jewish.  They emigrated from Germany to England 2 years before Winton was born; they converted to Christianity after arrival in England.

    The fact that Winton’s parents were originally Jewish apparently prevents him from being declared a “Righteous Gentile” by Israel and so honored at Yad Vashem.  Go figure.

  • Military Collectors, Eat Your Heart Out!

    Many people enjoy collecting things.  Some even collect military items and other military memorabilia.

    But this one is going to be pretty hard to top.  In fact, maybe this guy went a bit overboard.

    Seems a 78 year old German man in the town of Heikendorf had an interesting collection in his cellar.  As you might guess, his collection included a few old German military items.

    Including a torpedo, an anti-aircraft gun, some other old weapons . . . and a complete Panther tank, circa 1943.

    Seriously.

    The man also apparently made no real secret of the fact that he had the tank.  The town’s mayor indicated he’d been seen driving it previously during the 1978 snow emergency in the region.

    German authorities have at least temporarily confiscated the man’s collection.  It’s unclear whether he’s broken German law or not, since the weapons the man owned appear to have been rendered inoperative.

  • The Economy Keeps On . . . Drifting Aimlessly

    Well, new job figures are out. And to anyone who actually knows their behind from a small intentionally shovel-excavated spot on the earth’s surface, the new figures for June 2015 are not exactly good news.

    Yes, “official” unemployment is now at 5.3%. But alone, that statistic tells you squat. Since “official” unemployment doesn’t count discouraged workers who’ve said “screw it” and quit looking for work, it is actually possible for the economy to lose jobs while unemployment goes down at the same time.

    That’s pretty much what happened last month. Unemployment went down because so many people said the hell with it and quit looking for a job – not because the economy created a plethora of new jobs (job creation was lower than during the previous month). Oh, and wages are effectively stagnant right now, too.

    The most meaningful number for gauging the state of the economy is the labor participation rate. And there, the news isn’t so good.

    The US labor participation rate is the fraction of the civilian labor force (more precisely, the civilian non-institutional population) that is either actually working or actively looking for work. Today, the US civilian labor force is 250,663,000. But of that group, only a total of 157,037,000 are actively participating today – 148,739,000 are working, while another 8,299,000 are actively looking for work.

    That’s a labor participation rate of 62.6%. The US labor participation rate hasn’t been that low since the first year of the Carter Administration – in October 1977, to be precise. That month it was 62.4%; it hasn’t been below 62.7% since.  Until last month, that is.

    Let’s put that in perspective. In January 2009, the US labor participation rate was 65.7%. If that were the case today, the US labor force would have 164,686,000 people either working or actively looking for work.  With 5.3% unemployment, a 65.7% participation rate would mean we’d need 156,397,000 people working – or about 7.65 million more jobs than exist today.  With the number that are working working today – 148,739,000 – if we had a labor participation rate of 65.7% we’d have a 9.7% unemployment rate.

    Even if unemployment today were the same as it was in January 2009 (7.8%), with a 65.7% labor participation rate we’d need about 152,770,000 people working. We’re well over 4 million jobs short of that, too.

    “Recovery”?  Yeah, right.  In the best measure of economic wellness – labor participation rate – the US economy is at freaking Carter Administration levels.

    And we’ve been at those levels for a while, too.  The labor participation rate has been stuck at Carter Administration levels since January 2012 – or for the last 3 1/2 years.

    “Recovery”?  What damn recovery?  The economy is still stuck in neutral, and has been for 3 1/2 years.  Before that, it was in free-fall for about 3 years.

    Call me when the labor participation rate has been rising consistently for a few months. Then we can talk seriously about an economic “recovery” having begun.

  • Aw, Sh!t – Not Again

    Liberia confirms third Ebola case in new outbreak

    That “show” kinda sucked the first time around.  We could do without a sequel.

    But if we get a sequel, I’m guessing the      clueless group of fools in DC       current Administration will have the same attitude that they did last time.   You know:  “Don’t worry, be happy, can’t happen here”.   And that means they’ll again fail to implement common-sense travel policies and safeguards.

    Play with fire often enough, and eventually you’re gonna get burned.  As far as I know, that little truism remains . . . true.

  • Possible Washington Navy Yard Shooting

    Multiple news reports indicate another possible active shooter at the Washington Navy Yard.  No official confirmation yet.

    More to follow.

    Added:  reports indicate buildings nearby have been evacuated, nearby roads closed, and employees who have not yet reported to work have been notified to remain home.

    Added:  first security sweep of area reportedly complete; no evidence of gunman.  Second sweep ongoing.

    Added:  reports now say no shots were fired.  However, the compound apparently remains on lockdown.

    Added:  appears to have been a false alarm.  No injuries, and DC police are now reporting that the incident appears to have been a false alarm (no shots fired) and occurred because “loud noises frightened someone”.  (Link includes pretty decent timeline of the incident as of 0925 EDT.)

    Assuming that’s true, that’s good news – and given the facility’s recent history, I guess it’s at least marginally understandable.   But I don’t think I’d call in “shots fired” to 911 unless I was pretty damn sure what I heard was indeed gunfire.

    Added:  maybe not false alarm after all.  Reports now say surveillance video shows 2 people jumping fence at Navy Yard.  Police are now reportedly “storming” 2nd building.  All clear NOT given.

    Added:  Fox now reporting NMCC confirms shots fired.  Unclear when this was reported.

    Added:  Fox and local CBS TV website now reporting no evidence of shooter or victims. All clear still not given for Navy Yard.

    Added:  FBI reportedly has indicated all clear.  Looks to have been a false alarm.

    Final Entry:  no shots appear to have been fired.  ATF agents on scene speculate that construction noise nearby may have prompted initial “shots fired” report.

    . . .

    Bottom line:  looks like a false alarm – which is good news.  But you would think people might be able to tell the difference between construction noise and gunshots.

    Then again, in many big cities a huge fraction of the population buys the “guns bad” bull, and has never actually fired a gun.  And if they’ve lived a decent part of town all their life, they may never have actually heard one fired other than on TV.  So they might actually not know what gunshots nearby sound like.

    All’s well that ends well, I guess.

     

  • Slavery and Guilt

    Another comment the other day by one of our readers also got me thinking. And when that happens, well . . . you know the rest. (smile)

    But this time, there aren’t all that many numbers involved.

    What got me thinking was the comment made by someone that no one in their family had ever been engaged in human trafficking.

    This isn’t meant as a slam at anyone. But the more I thought about it, the more I became convinced that the individual is almost certainly wrong.

    Because the more I thought about it, the more convinced I became that very few people on earth today can make truthfully make that statement. And outside of a very few isolated populations, I’d guess that number is almost certainly zero.

    . . .

    Slavery is an evil human practice – but it’s also an incredibly old human practice. Until relatively recently it was allowed, and was often fairly common, in virtually every human society that practiced agriculture (some of the cultures of Pacific Oceania are believed to be the only cultures having agriculture that are exceptions).  Slavery occurred on every continent except possibly pre-Colonial Australia (even that appears uncertain) and Antarctica (no human population).

    And yes:  it appears very likely that all races practiced slavery and/or participated in the slave trade, too.  The sole racial exceptions may be from Pacific Oceania, and even that’s not completely certain.

    Agriculture is thought to have begun around 10,000 years ago. Allowing a couple of thousand years (I’m being generous – I personally doubt that it took more than a couple of hundred) before slavery developed as a human evil, that means slavery has been around for roughly 8,000 years.

    Bottom line:  only those societies that never progressed beyond hunter/gatherer – plus possibly a few isolated societies in Pacific Oceania – seem to have never practiced slavery. (Even then, we’re not absolutely sure.)  So unless someone can verify that all of his or her ancestors were members of one of that small number of societies, that means you have ancestors from a society that practiced slavery.

    And that’s the problem. In any such society, go back far enough and the numbers essentially guarantee you have at least one ancestor that either owned slaves or was otherwise involved in the slave trade.

    . . .

    OK, the numbers.

    A human generation is generally accepted today to be a period of 20 to 30 years.  That wasn’t always the case – children were generally born earlier on average in the past than is the case today in much of the world – but for convenience we’ll use 20 years throughout for the length of a generation.

    That means a century is 5 generations; a millennium, 50 generations.  Since we’re assuming above that slavery began around 8,000 years ago, that means slavery has been around for about 400 human generations.

    Ignoring the possibility of consanguineous relationships, the number of ancestors each of us has can be expressed as a by a simple expression:  2 to the Nth power, where N is the number of generations “back” one looks. I’ll represent that as “2^N” here.

    So, going back 100 years – to 1915 – means going back 5 generations. In that generation you have 2^5 = 32 ancestors.  You can usually check that far back.

    In fact, going back even 300 years isn’t easy, but it’s not that bad. That’s the year 1715, and is 15 generations back – which gives that generation 2^15 = 32,768 ancestors. One can probably determine that far back with reasonable certainty whether any of your ancestors ever owned or trafficked in slaves if you are willing to put enough time and energy into the task.

    The problem occurs as you continue to look back further.

    Looking back 600 years, or the year 1415, and that’s 30 generations back – which works out to 2^30, or 1,073,741,842, ancestors in that generation alone. Even if the records were available, that’s problematic.

    It’s estimated that the world population in 1400 was somewhere between 350 and 400 million. That’s far less than the number above. Since every child has 2 parents, either that means everyone alive in 1415 was an ancestor multiple times over – or that something else is in play.  (The latter is obviously the case.)

    Unfortunately, allowing for the obvious fact that family trees eventually must “fold back” on themselves somewhere in the past doesn’t help much.  Even setting the effective number of “unique ancestors” per generation at the low level of 1.5 (e.g., the equivalent of each set of parents being half-siblings – something we would consider today an abomination and an unthinkably high level of consanguinity) only pushes out the problem a few centuries. Even under those conditions, the number of unique ancestors still grows exponentially and can be approximated by 1.5^N – and 1.5^50, which works out to the number of unique ancestors in the year 1015 for 20-year generations, is roughly 637,621,500.  Again, that’s far greater than the estimated world population at the time.

    So, even the above is actually rather an oversimplification.  But I believe it gets the point across – partway.

    And that’s only part of the problem.  The next is the real “killer”.

    For the claim of “no slavery in my family” to be literally true, that means every ancestor in every past generation must neither have owned a slave nor been otherwise involved in the slave trade. Um, I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

    Even if only 1 individual in a million on earth was a slave owner at any given time since slavery began, go back far enough and the number of ancestors in a given generation eventually becomes large enough that having a slave-owning or -trading ancestor becomes a virtual certainty. (I’ll pass on providing the mathematical explanation why and a simplified sample calculation unless someone requests it.) Bottom line: somewhere in the past, it’s a virtual guarantee that an ancestor owned a slave or traded in slaves – even if the vast majority did not.

    For what it’s worth: by the same analysis, go back far enough and it’s probably equally certain that every one of us has at least one individual in our family tree somewhere who was once a slave, too.  So we’re all “victims”, too.

    . . .

    My point in writing the above wasn’t to make anyone feel bad, or to point fingers. My point is to set the stage for the following.

    The whole “guilt about slavery” discussion today is based on the concept of “inherited guilt” – that people living today can be deemed “guilty” for the acts of their ancestors.  That concept is specious as hell.  Let me say it plainly:  the whole concept of “inherited” or “historical” guilt due to the past actions of one’s ancestors is absolute and unadulterated bullsh!t.

    Guilt cannot be inherited. A person is guilty for wrongs they themselves commit, or which they have a duty to prevent and willfully (or through negligence) fail to stop. For such failings, a person legitimately can be held accountable.

    However, a person cannot legitimately be considered “guilty” of something done before they were born.  Even the dullest village idiot understands that.

    A person living today had absolutely nothing to do with what happened 100 years ago – because they were not yet born at the time. Regardless of what their ancestors did or did not do, those living today are legitimately “guilty” of absolutely nothing with respect to what happened before they were born.  Guilt for those living today is due solely to their own wrongdoings, not those of their ancestors.

    Further, the argument is bullsh!t for another reason as well. Go back far enough, and it’s a virtual certainty that each of us has an ancestor that was guilty of the same. I find the hypocrisy in the argument as odious and offensive as the argument’s premise.

    . . .

    This idiotic concept of “historical” or “inherited” guilt IMO has fueled as many conflicts throughout history – if not more – than has religion. It’s fueled blood feuds (think Hatfields and McCoys). IMO, it’s the real basis for today’s conflict between Palestinians and Israelis (each believes it has has been historically wronged by the other). The same is true for the current tensions in the Balkans and in Central Africa and Asia.  Ditto many if not most tribal conflicts throughout history. Today, it forms a big part of the basis for the historical Arab-Persian enmity as well as the India-Pakistan hostilities – more, IMO, than do religious differences. It was a causative factor in most if not all of Europe’s wars.

    And yet, some still cling to the inane concept of historical or collective guilt.  Humans are sometimes incredibly slow to learn, both individually and as societies.

    Regardless of how much we wish otherwise, history cannot be changed; we can’t “fix” the past.  The best we can do is remember it, learn from it – and hopefully avoid making the same mistakes yet again.

  • More Thoughts on Guns and Murders

    A comment by one of our regulars (VOV) the other day – along with a video posted by another reader in a different discussion – got me thinking.  And it led me to look at a few numbers.

    I know that’s a huge surprise.  Try to get over the shock.  (smile)

    What I ran across wasn’t really surprising to me, except in one area. But it might be of general interest, so I decided to post what I found and my conclusions.  They concern guns, murder, and the distribution of the latter.

    In 2012, the USA had a murder rate (which includes non-negligent homicides) of 4.7 per 100,000 population. That year, the US population was somewhat less than 314 million (313,873,685); there were somewhat under 15,000 murders (14,866).

    What I found interesting was where those murders occurred. As most of our regular readers might guess, it seems a disproportionate number of them occurred in cities.

    1.  All Cities over 250,000.

    I was able to find data on the murder rate in all US cities over 250,000.   I then did a bit of number crunching (Excel is good for that) to determine the number of murders in those cities. Roundoff error may have resulted in a minor error, since I used rounding to get integer totals – but I don’t think it did.  If it did, I doubt any error is more than by 1 or 2.  Here’s what I came up with:

    US Cities over 250,000

    Rest of USA

    Total Population 55,501,250 Total Population 258,372,435
    Total Murders 5,805 Total Murders 9,061
    Murder Rate 10.5 Murder Rate 3.5

    Yep – for all US cities over 250,000 in population, the aggregate murder rate is roughly 3x that of the rest of the country. Although US cities with population greater than 250,000 have less than 18% of the total US population, they account for 39% of US homicides.

    If you think that’s an indication that murder is much more of a problem in cities than in the rest of America – that’s correct. But stay tuned; there’s a bit of a plot twist coming.

    2.  All US Cities over 500,000.

    I decided to look next at cities over 500k in population (Excel makes sorting REALLY easy). There are 33 such US cities.

    The results were a mildly surprising.

    US Cities over 500,000

    Rest of USA

    Total Population 41,237,116 Total Population 272,636,569
    Total Murders 4,114 Total Murders 10,752
    Murder Rate 10.0 Murder Rate 3.9

    Interesting. Though still disproportionate, considering only cities with a population over 500,000 actually narrowed the “gap” a bit. While some of that is due to adding the cities between 250,000 and 500,000 in population (and their murders) back into the “rest of USA” category, having any drop-off at all still seems . . . well, a bit odd.

    3.  Well, How about 600,000+?

    Here ya go. Not much change, actually.  Curious.

    US Cities over 600,000

    Rest of USA

    Total Population 37,852,847 Total Population 276,020,838
    Total Murders 3,783 Total Murders 11,0833
    Murder Rate 10.0 Murder Rate 4.0

    4.  The “Top 10” – US Cities over 1,000,000

    So, I decided to look at only the “biggies” – e.g., the 10 largest US Cities. As it turns out, there are also precisely the US cities that top 1,000,000 in population. So, I took a look.  Here’s what I found.

    US Cities over 1,000,000 (“Top 10”)

    Rest of USA

    Total Population 25,494,200 Total Population 288,379,485
    Total Murders 2.,261 Total Murders 12,605
    Murder Rate 8.9 Murder Rate 4.4

    Interesting – and, frankly, a bit surprising.

    The numbers continue to converge, which along with the previous data indicates the problem doesn’t always get worse as cities get larger.  One would guess it should, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

    5.  The “Worst Offenders”.

    So, let’s look instead at the “worst of the worst” and see what we can deduce. Sorting on murder rate and taking the “worst offenders”, here’s the list – and the numbers:

    The “Worst Offenders”

    State City Population Murder Rate Number of Murders
    Michigan Detroit 707,096 54.6 386
    Louisiana New Orleans 362,874 53.2 193
    Missouri St. Louis 318,667 35.5 113
    Maryland Baltimore 625,474 34.9 218
    New Jersey Newark 278,906 34.4 96
    California Oakland 399,487 31.8 127
    California Stockton 299,105 23.7 71
    Missouri Kansas City 464,073 22.6 105
    Pennsylvania Philadelphia 1,538,957 21.5 331
    Ohio Cleveland 393,781 21.3 84
    Tennessee Memphis 657,436 20.2 133
    Georgia Atlanta 437,041 19 83
    Illinois Chicago 2,708,382 18.5 501
    New York Buffalo 262,434 18.3 48
    Florida Miami 414,327 16.7 69
    Ohio Cincinnati 296,204 15.5 46
    Wisconsin Milwaukee 599,395 15.2 91
    Oklahoma Oklahoma City 595,607 14.3 85
    DC Washington 632,323 13.9 88
    Ohio Toledo 286,020 13.6 39
    Pennsylvania Pittsburgh 312,112 13.1 41

    Interesting. No apparent real rhyme or reason here. Some are large cities (Chicago, Philly); others are not. NYC and Boston didn’t make the list – but neither did Dallas, Houston, or LA. The list almost seems to have been culled at random from the list of US cities with population over 250,000.

    But whatever the underlying reasons these are the 21 US cities with the worst murder rates in the USA.  In fact, it’s all of the US cities with a population over 250,000 having a murder rate over 13.

    In the aggregate, those 21 cities have only 4% of the US population.  But they account for almost 20% of US murders – and their aggregate murder rate is just a hair less than 5x the national average.

    Significantly, though – those “gun crazy” states with really low ratings from the “Brady Bunch” don’t exactly seem overrepresented on the list.  None of the states with a Brady score of zero (AK, AZ, and UT) have a city on the list – and yes, each has a city large enough to be listed there.  In fact, if you do a quick count you’ll find that a handful of “states” – specifically, CA, PA, MD, NJ, IL, NY, MI, and the District of Columbia – account for almost half (10 of 21) of the cities listed.

    The average Brady Score of those eight “states” in 2011 was 51.375 (the “Brady Bunch” didn’t assign DC a Brady Score in 2011, but for computation here I’m arbitrarily assigning DC a Brady Score equal to that of NY). That average would meet the criteria for a “3-star” rating from the “Brady Bunch” with respect to the strength of their gun control laws.  Indeed, all of these states received at least 2 stars from the “Brady Bunch” in 2011.

    In fact, of the 11 states with a “2-star” or higher rating from the “Brady Bunch”, nearly 2/3 of them (7 of 11) have a city on the “worst offenders” list above.  I’m guessing it would be an even 2/3 (8 of 12) if the “Brady Bunch” had published a Brady Score for DC.

    In contrast, “gun crazy” TX – which has no cities on the list above – had a 2011 Brady Score of 4 and a 0 star rating from the “Brady Bunch”.  Plus, the US city with the lowest murder rate – Plano, with a 2012 murder rate of 0.4  (not a misprint; that really is intended to read “zero point four”) – is also in Texas.  Go figure.

    6.  Comments.

    A few caveats and comments before I get to my conclusions.

    The “cities” above are exactly that – legal and political entities.  They aren’t their entire metro area in many cases; they’re often ringed with smaller cities and towns (the famed “Suburbia”).  However, they do generally include the old, urban “inner city” areas for the  region in question.

    As I noted above, the number of murders for each city is calculated from the city’s population and its murder rate, then rounded to the nearest integer (best I can tell, it’s kinda hard to kill nine-tenths of a person).  So it’s possible that there may be a round off error in there somewhere – I don’t think there is, but since it’s possible I’ll mention that fact here.

    Data for 2012 national-level statistics was obtained a site called “disastercenter.com“.  They in turn give the source of their data as being FBI UCI statistics.  I didn’t verify that, but I did spot check their 2012 US murder rate against another source and found they matched – so I don’t think they’re “blowing smoke”.

    Data source for murder rate and population for 2012 for US cities of population 250,000 and over was Wikipedia.  Wikipedia data also appears to be taken from FBI UCI crime statistics.

    A personally retained softcopy of the “Brady Bunch” Brady Score Scorecard for 2011 was used to determined 2011 state Brady Scores.

    Microsoft Excel was used to “run the numbers”.

    . . .

    My conclusions?  Threefold.

    First:  gun murder does seem to be more a city problem than anything else.  But it’s not equally a problem in all cities – whether your talking big cities or smaller ones.   Some mid-size and large cities have a very good handle on the problem (San Diego and El Paso to name two), and even NYC and LA are doing a pretty good job; ditto for many other small- and mid-sized cities.  Others have issues, but aren’t sucking wind like the cities on the last list above.

    But some cities of all sizes have a major problem – including cities next door to other cities doing a good job, and with similar gun laws (e.g., Newark, NJ, and NYC).  Local conditions, policies, and quirks seem much more important than a city’s size.

    Second:  My original opinion about the Brady Score hasn’t changed.  The acronym for “Brady Score” is “BS” – and that’s perfectly descriptive.  Legal restrictions on firearms ownership by law-abiding citizens don’t seem to do squat to prevent murders.

    Chicago and DC legally banned most firearms until recently, and it’s still virtually impossible for a citizen without connections to get a handgun carry permit (or even legally purchase a gun) in either location.  But both are among the cities with murder rates grossly higher than the US average.  And of the US cities with the 10 worst (highest) murder rates, 6 of them are from states that the “Brady Bunch” awarded 2 or more stars in 2011 for having Brady Scores in the top 22% of states:  CA (2 – Oakland, Stockton), NJ (Newark), MI (Detroit), MD (Baltimore), and PA (Philadelphia).

    Third:   Little Marty-boi O’Malley should shut his dissembling, hypocritical mouth regarding guns and gun control.  He obviously doesn’t know sh!t from Shinola when it comes to preventing gun violence.

    Why do I say that?   One word:  Baltimore.  Look above for the details.

  • Arizona F16 Crash – Update

    The pilot of the F16 that crashed in Arizona has been identified.  Per AP reports, he is Brig. Gen. Rafid Mohammed Hassan, Iraqi Air Force.

    Brig. Gen Hassan had been training in the US on the F16 in order to use it against ISIS/ISIL/whatever that gang of murderous thugs is called today.  His status is still formally unknown.

    Update:  Brig. Gen. Hassan did not survive.  His remains have been located.

    Godspeed, General.  May He grant you be found alive and well.

     

    (Updated to reflect confirmation of Brig. Gen. Hassan’s death and recovery of remains.)