Well, the latest economic figures are out. And as has been the case since January 2009, the numbers and trends . . . well, they suck.
First: the “official” unemployment rate declined last month – from 5.0% to 4.9%. That’s good, right?
Um, not really. You see, the number of US residents employed actually DECLINED last month – even though the “official” unemployment rate also declined. While approximately 43,000 people appear to have lost their jobs in October, it seems that that an additional 152,000 also simply quit looking for work during the month. So though the number of people working declined, because of how the “official” unemployment rate is calculated that number “went down”.
Yeah, that official “unemployment” rate is a wonderful measure of how well the economy is doing. Today, 43,000 fewer people are working than the previous month, and 3x that many got discouraged and quit even looking for work – and the number shows “improvement”. Go figure.
As I’ve repeatedly said, a much better statistic to look at to determine the US economy’s performance is the labor participation rate. That is defined as the fraction of the US civilian population that could work that is either working or looking for work. And that measure DID DECLINE last month – from 62.9% to 62.8%.
And in case you’re wondering, no – THAT decline is decidedly NOT good news. What that means is that more than 94,600,000 people who could be working . . . aren’t.
That’s the second-highest number in US history. The highest number occurred earlier this year, in May.
A labor participation rate of 63% or less is, to be blunt, an indicator that the US economy is in the freaking toilet. Prior to the last several years of economic hard times, the last time the US labor participation rate was 63% or lower was during April 1978 – or 38 1/2 years ago. That was during Jimmy “We Don’t Need No Steenkin’ Economy” Carter’s Administration.
The US labor participation rate was 65.7% in January 2009. From there, it declined steadily to roughly 63% range, reaching 63% in November 2013.
It’s been 63% or less ever since then – which means that the US economy has been absolutely in the crapper for a full three years now.
It’s time to ask this question: “Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?” I’m willing to bet the answer for virtually everyone is, “Oh, hell no!”
And remember this: if Clintoon’s elected POTUS next week, we’ll get at least 4 more years of the current Administration’s failed economic policies – or worse.