Posted in

Charlie Kirk shot

by David••63

 

Okay, we have seen a multitude of articles (and even some comments here) that the single shot at Charlie Kirk was a professional hit. ‘It was brilliantly planned, the killer wore all black, the shot was incredibly difficult’ etc. Utter horse hockey, guys, and we all know it.

Let’s start with the rifle. Obviously modified  at some point over the years, it has a synthetic stock (two screws to change over) and has been drilled and tapped for a scope. ‘Way back when before the Internet turned everything into a collectible and people started to eschew modifications, the most common base for a custom rifle was – you guessed it – the Mauser Model 98. Since the 8×57 cartridge has exactly the same case head diameter as the .30-o6, that family of cartridges (.30-06, .270, etc.) are probably the most common conversions…after all, the Germans produced over eight MILLION of them for WWII.

Even the Israelis got in on the act – the little brother of the .30-06, the .308, used the same case head and it was a natural progression (hmm, we can get a boatload of old German rifles cheap, and the US will give us lots of this new 7.62/.308 ammo – for the price of changing the barrel we get a great combination!) Something ironic about an old Nazi rifle with an Israeli crest on the receiver…

Accuracy from a battle rifle is widely held to be ‘accurate enough’ at 3-4″ groups at 100 yards with open sights. So worst case at 200 yards (or 137 yards per Commissar) the rifle could probably hold 6-8″, plenty good for a center of mass shot, or better when fitted with a scope. And this one is – looks to be a variable scope, which the shooter would probably crank up to full power. Given that the most common variable is a 3X9 power scope, that presents the same problems as open sights would from about 22 yards. Anyone here think that is difficult?

Much has been made of the shot being so surgical, a single neck shot.  Me, I tend to think the killer may have gotten lucky – at only 137-200 yards, he was shooting downhill. Hunters know that when you shoot either downhill or uphill, you have to compensate. Oddly, though, you compensate the same way. Slant distance (ie. 200 yards along the shot trajectory) is one thing, but gravity acts on the bullet’s flight during its flight distance over the earth horizontally, so uncompensated shots typically hit a bit high. At long range, enough to overshoot your target – at shorter range, a higher hit than the shooter really wanted. To be honest, though, at such a short range I’m not sure the effect would be noticeable. (A little Pythagorean calculation would let you solve for horizontal distance.)

The all-black clothing…seriously? Do assassins dress in “lookeeMEI’m TACTICOOL”?  Pants and a T-shirt, more likely, and on a college campus that blends right in. Professional? Sorta, but also somewhat just coincidental.

And much has been made of the ‘engraved ammo’ – yeah. Now that is one of the biggest amateur flags of all.  Intentionally putting a weak spot in a cartridge case that will develop up to 60,000 psi pressure inside it… not likely. Only an idiot would actually engrave the side of a cartridge case. But what if it was on the bullet itself? Heck, a bullet only spins a quarter million rpm, go for it – see how stable it becomes.

Me, I’m thinking the odds favor a mad kid who laid his hands on a very common but capable rifle, took an easy shot, and got lucky. Sniper? Sniper rifle? Prove me wrong.

 

 

 

You might also like

VoteVets’ double standard

Walt grassed by auntie

Final Defendant Gets Two Years in Fake Military Clothing Scheme

63 thoughts on “Charlie Kirk shot”

  1. Not a pro.

    Somewhere online, someone claimed a .30-06 at 200 yards has about four inches of drop. If you aim for the center of the head, don’t factor for the angle you’re shooting down at, perhaps the rifle isn’t zeroed exactly to you, or you forget to adjust the scope for the range. Lump in the nerves inherent to doing these kinds of things, especially for the first time, and my suspicion is its a head shot that went low.

    There’s a reason my DIs and instructors beat the 10″ circle center of mass into my head. The kid went for the head, missed it, and got lucky.

    1. Not remembering a lot about shots at an angle (up or down), I was thinking the opposite. He was going for a heart/center mass shot, didn’t compensate for angle, and the shot went high.
      But then again, I’ve been known to be wrong before.

    3. Well, according to a Speer manual a ballistic coefficient .477 ..30 caliber 165 grain boat tail, a pretty typical .30-06 load, at 2700 fps if zeroed at 100 yards drops 2″ at 200 yards. If zeroed at 200 yards, at 100 yards it may be 4″ high. Most hunters don’t zero at 100, they zero a bit high, what is called a max point blank range. Say you are after deer, with an optimum target range in the chest 10″ tall. A bullet’s path rises and then falls, so you zero the rifle so that rise and fall is contained within that 10″ range to the longest possible range (for most rounds with a velocity in the 2600-3000fps range, that usually means if you set your scope to hit about 1.5-2″ high at 100 yards you will hit within that 10 circle out to 225-250 yards, which accounts for about 95% of all the deer shot.

      1. Fair enough. I don’t get enough range time these days, and most of it is my AR at 1-300 yards.

        That said, I still wouldn’t fully discount a headshot gone wrong, just because the vast majority of kids these days are gamers, and video games preach headshots are skill shots.

        There’s a lot of variable, and short of the shitstain himself telling us, we’ll never know.

      2. I am not an experienced high-powered rifle shooter. I have a Ruger M77 in 30.06. Many years ago, I shot my only deer kill on a hunting trip to Wyoming with some friends that go almost every year. My Ruger has a Leupold 3-9x scope. Before the hunt, I zeroed it once at the range at 100 yards. It shot 1 to 1.5 inch groups off a bench. I shot my deer at about 85 yards from a seated position. One shot, one kill; the bullet struck his aorta within five inches of the point of aim. So, with a zeroed rifle with a scope, I could have made that shot, prone from a rooftop. So, you are correct, no sniper skill was required.

        1. The main skill of a sniper is not shooting.

          Fieldcraft. Get into position undetected. Observe undetected. Shoot undetected. Get back out undetected.

          Stealth. Ghost. Who da eff was dat?

          -That- is far more important than how far they hit. Distance helps. Much easier to hide 500m away than 100m.

          But the invisible man can snipe with anything. The obvious dude is just a shooter.

          Once.

  2. The reports I have found say it was 142 yards. This is a very easy shot with a bolt action .30-06 rifle. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know anything about guns. You don’t need a scope at that range, especially with young eyes. The majority of targets on the Army qualification range with the M4 are 150 meters (164 yards) and up. There is no magnification used on that range.

    Apparently this kid was trained by his father as he was growing up and was able to hit targets at 450 yards. Nobody knows if he was aiming for his neck. Generally you don’t aim for the neck because, smaller target.

    Scribing on the side of the shell won’t cause a case blowout as the round is fully seated in that type firearm however it could cause it to swell and possibly stick. This actually follows as he only fired one shot. It may have gotten the case stuck and he couldn’t extract it to fire another round. If a round is stuck bad enough the extractor will slip off the edge of the case and you will need to ram it with a cleaning rod to get it out.

  3. I don’t doubt that the rifle was more accurate than the shooter. While a weapon I used to posess before the boat accident may have been a minute of angle rifle, I was/am more of a minute of white-tail shooter.

    The range in question wasn’t that far and 100 to 200 yard zeroes based on available shooting ranges facilities are fairly common here.

  4. If he was professional-level sniper, then I’m Delta Force.
    (Hint: I never served)

    My initial thoughts when Charlie Kirk was martyred were that the shooter missed high or low, probably low, but got lucky. I’d suspect he was going for a head shot.

    Who, at this point, doesn’t know that a flat or mild-slope roof-top makes a good shooting platform?
    Looking at what the college students in the GB Compound AO wear, black is very common. He was dressed “grey man” but probably didn’t even think about it.

    One benefit of free speech is that the idiots reveal themselves. The problem is the ignorant cannot discern the fact.

  5. The guy shot from a roof.
    You take the shot from the lowest elevation you can and as deep inside the room, in the shade, as you can.

    1. You mean you don’t stick the rifle barrel out the window? I can’t believe Hollywood got it wrong.

      I didn’t get into TTPs but yes, silhouetting yourself on a roof where anyone and everyone can see you isn’t how it is normally done. Not that a sniper would never set up on a roof, but not like that, unless they were trying to be seen such as some LEA counter snipers might set up as a visible deterrent.

      1. And the videos of folks pointing it out, like the first Trump assassin!!

        Where the hell are the professionals???

        Cmon man!

    3. Yup, a pro wouldn’t have skylined himself, wouldn’t have laid out in the open, would’ve had a better egress plan, and no social media trail. A pro wouldn’t have made a public spectacle of the hit. This little fucker wanted the attention, he wanted to induce terror. He’s going to experience a lot of terror in his remaining years.

      1. Given the options for trial venue, I have a strong feeling his amount of remaining years will end up being curtailed.

        1. I believe you’re right. However, there’s a lot to be said about life without parole when you’re 22. That’s a real long timeout. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not against capital punishment. Sometimes, I’d prefer that the bad guys have a long and miserable life. It may be unChristian of me, but Jesus and I will eventually discuss that.

          1. I go the other way. I hope they find God. I stubbornly believe that no one is irredeemable. If not their stay will be long and miserable and then they will die and be buried in a barely acknowledged grave, after losing everything.

            The death penalty should be reserved for those too dangerous to be allowed to live.

              1. 5JC is correct, and is apparently better than you or I. However, a fair trial, followed by a quick execution, would leave us many fewer years of actively being “unChristian”.

            2. With all the evidence against him, unless he wants to be a martyr, he will cop a plea deal for LWOP, rather than face the needle or the firing squad.

            3. I too hope they find forgiveness in Jesus Christ.
              We had a lady in TDCJ-ID who had committed some horrific murders, and was sentenced to death.
              While on death row, she had a chance to ask Christ to save her – and took it.
              From her life (in prison) afterwards, she showed every sign of a real conversion.
              She still had to go through the execution, but I have no doubt that she will be in Heaven.

              1. I felt the same way about S.D.Green (who unfortunately came from Texas) when he made noises about repentance. However, as he died from a botched/delayed suicide attempt, that status seems to be questionable.
                I was not, however, devastated to find that he has not been stealing O2 for the past 13 or so years.

          2. I like to think about him spending the rest of his life in jail, “getting used” daily and nightly, for the rest of his life!!!

            POS, he deserves every penis poked into his body, that he gets, for the rest of his life!!!

  6. Too bad while engraving said bullets, or after, one didn’t prematurely go boom or blow up in his face as he pulled the trigger.

    1. Mauser bolt action is -very- strong, and has channels to redirect a blowout away from the eyes.

      1. While true, it’s still a a mechanical item for lack of a better term, and not infallible. That’s why we get to read about Darwin awards occasionally.

      2. I guess I should have said that instead. A blowout is possible, although unlikely, so long as the rifle isn’t made from SA pot metal it should be just fine.

  7. Not sure about today but when I was in boot camp (Parris Island Platoon 2063 July to Oct 1981) we fired from the KD course from 200, 300 and 500 yards with the M16 and iron sights. I saw a number of people who either never fired a weapon or had very little experience hit the bullseye on the Able target. So no, that shot was not difficult and that pussy dickweed had a scope to boot. Of course, all of you on here except maybe Commie, know that.

    2. I don’t OC, but it is nice to have that option in case things go potato shaped, which in Florida could be any moment.

      1. I also carry concealed and will stay that way.. Was slow dancing outside one night at our Ice cream parlor with one of the senior widowed young ladies and her hand goes around my waist and touches the holstered gun handle and I say, don’t worry, I won;t go off /grin.

        1. “senior widowed young ladies”

          Haha. That reminds me of a story from growing up. Grandma Grunt was a devout Catholic and one time, she took Young Grunt to an event hosted by the Young Ladies Institute.

          Young Grunt, about 12 at the time, was looking forward to the sights and opportunities that could be had at a meeting of the Young Ladies Institute.

          Unfortunately, Young Grunt was disappointed, as the youngest lady at the shindig was about 70 or so.

          1. I’m 80 in Nov. and my friend has 4 years on me and boy, she sure can dance with 2 knee replacements and the other lady in my above comment has 2 years on my friend but not as agile. Age is just a number.

            1. Never been a jealous man! I have a beauty for a wife! 30 years this month and going strong! She’s Fn HOT!!!!!, I really appreciate other guys noticing how HOT she is! I love her and she loves me! No need for jealousy or the feeling that there are problems. She loves to dance and is much better at than I am (BUT, Im No quitter!) When a dude asks her to dance, She is the first say “is it ok?”, I’m ALWAYS like, “hell yeah, tell him to buy me a drink too”!

    3. Have to add that a couple of Panhandle Florida counties are under a different jurisdiction and will have to wait till it gets straigtend out.
      . Got that from my friend in Virginia whom unlike me read the whole story.

      1. I hope he gets Big Bubba, a lifer, as his cellmate. Then soon he will be suffering from that medical condition known as the ” loose anoose.”

    3. He will soon learn he doesnt like being poked repeatedly in either the eyes or the rear. And if someone should poke him to death while in prison, will the guards give him a bit of leniency when time gets added to his sentence for taking out the trash?

    1. Under Milley et al, he would have been given a Silver Star with ‘V’ Device and a promotion to a cherry job.

      Good riddance to this disgrace to the uniform, and to the Brotherhood of the NDSM.

    4. He will likely have his retirement benefits untouched. But he may be retiring sooner than planned. He may end up with a GOMOR in his personnel file. He will not like his next duty station. He may want to lay in some very warm clothes, as I see Alaska in his future. Ft. Richardson gets pretty chilly in the dead of winter.

  14. As someone who has trained hundreds of young men to shoot, and hit, targets at ranges greater than 200 yards, using iron sights, my professional opinion is this guy is no pro.

    Quite the opposite.

Comments are closed.