{"id":99914,"date":"2020-05-22T11:00:51","date_gmt":"2020-05-22T15:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=99914"},"modified":"2020-05-22T08:50:56","modified_gmt":"2020-05-22T12:50:56","slug":"the-bitter-truths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=99914","title":{"rendered":"The Bitter Truth"},"content":{"rendered":"

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There is some speculation that long-term unemployment may become a permanent thing. It is already exceeding 25%, which is higher than previously expected and reported, and some companies have already announced how many people they are laying off.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/terinaallen\/2020\/05\/10\/3-bitter-truths-about-the-coronavirus-job-losses-and-the-economy\/#4426d77267f9<\/a><\/p>\n

The article linked is by Terina Allen for Forbes.\u00a0In it, she asks if people are ready to accept what she terms \u201cThe Three Bitter Truths\u201d.<\/p>\n

“Despite the rosy scenarios, research and data clearly indicate that (1)<\/strong> a huge portion of the job losses are indeed permanent; (2)<\/strong> the coronavirus recession\u2014arguably a depression\u2014will last much longer than many are prepared to admit; and (3)<\/strong> the unemployment numbers are actually higher than currently reported. According the news reports, in some places, people are registering properly and following all the guidelines, but are still not receiving unemployment compensation.<\/p>\n

“For example: If 42% of the coronavirus job losses really do end up being permanent, this would be a devastating blow for the unemployed and for the economy. Given that 33.5 million people have filed new jobless claims so far, it stands to reason that approximately 14 million people could end up not having a job to return to at all.” – article<\/p>\n

Link to Becker Friedman Institute\u2019s report:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bfi.uchicago.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/BFI_WP_202059.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

I’ve said several times that two financial analysts have, since early in March, been forecasting a recession for 2021 to 2022, and now, others are saying the same thing, with some indicating that it may go as far down the road as 2023.\u00a0 We’ve already been through several bad recessions: one quite memorable event was Nixon’s recession, which he didn’t really cause but still has that association. Another was the recession and the Great Depression that followed the markets crash in 1929. And the most recent was the Great Recession 2008-2009, which was caused partly by questionable mortgage financing practices and partly by the sheer greed involved in the Enron\/Arthur Andersen accounting fraud, among other things. What can only be termed an economics cascade effect occurs when something disrupts the flow of business, and it just goes from there. The day that the stock market crashed in 1929 was the day that housing construction came to a grinding halt. When Arthur Andersen’s employees not involved in the Enron fraud were turfed out to the street, the effect of that fraud began to include all aspects of the economy, from car sales to grocery bills. This current recession, with job losses that may become permanent, may stretch as far as 2023.<\/p>\n

I don’t view throwing money at people to keep them quiet as something even the Good Idea Fairy would view as practical. I’d like to see work that we’ve exported to other countries – e.g., China – brought back here. We have plenty of skilled labor, and people come here looking for jobs. If we now have a jobless population of more than 33 millions, and it is growing*, it might be wise to bring all that work back home.<\/p>\n

*Update 5\/22\/2020: the number of applicants for unemployment compensation now stands at 38.6 million, as of Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    There is some speculation that long-term unemployment may become a permanent thing. It is … The Bitter Truth<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":653,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[296,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=99914"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99914\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99970,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99914\/revisions\/99970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=99914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=99914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=99914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}