{"id":99346,"date":"2020-05-08T11:00:23","date_gmt":"2020-05-08T15:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=99346"},"modified":"2020-05-08T09:23:53","modified_gmt":"2020-05-08T13:23:53","slug":"the-model-was-incorrect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=99346","title":{"rendered":"The Model Was Incorrect"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-82032\" src=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Grackle-2-copy-copy-300x190.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"190\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Grackle-2-copy-copy-300x190.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Grackle-2-copy-copy-768x487.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Grackle-2-copy-copy-500x317.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Grackle-2-copy-copy.jpg 1234w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It seems that the \u201cexperts\u201d predicting massive die-offs using \u201cFerguson\u2019s Model\u201d and insisting that we all impinge our lives with lockdowns and social distancing were no experts. Instead they are a bunch of amateurs pretending to be programmers when they are not professional programmers, and every bit of code that they used was infested with bugs that not only throw off the results, but can\u2019t repeat them. Their response to this error is to tell people to \u201ctake an average\u201d, which is incorrect.\u00a0 Their results were spectacular, grabbed news media&#8217;s attention and were wrapped around the world like a rope.<\/p>\n<p>But the spectacular always gets attention, which keeps repeating itself until the curtain is dropped and the reality of just plain bad, error-filled work raises its head.<\/p>\n<p>So the entire world gets put into pandemic panic and goes into shutdown when it wasn&#8217;t really necessary. And no one has asked why we don&#8217;t do the same things during flu season, when flu of any strain is just as deadly.\u00a0 Yes, I did wonder about the extreme measures that have been taken to prevent the spread of this bug, which has not worked, and why it&#8217;s been given so much attention when the flu can be just as lethal, but &#8211; well, we all get flu shots, don&#8217;t we? And haven&#8217;t we forgotten the panicky reports over deadly swine flu a few years ago, which seems to have been forgotten? There was the Hanta bug a few years back, too, which was prevalent in the southwestern USA, and was finally traced to mice as carriers.<\/p>\n<p>According to the author of this article, a professional programmer with several decades of experience at it, their efforts have resulted in both inaccuracy and a cavalier attitude toward their inconsistent results, which is a dangerous way to behave. When software is so poorly done that multiple inputs of the same information produce a wide variety of results, there is something wrong with the people who created the coding in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the link to the professional programmer\u2019s article:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lockdownsceptics.org\/code-review-of-fergusons-model\/\">https:\/\/lockdownsceptics.org\/code-review-of-fergusons-model\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read the whole thing. She doesn\u2019t waste words anywhere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It seems that the \u201cexperts\u201d predicting massive die-offs using \u201cFerguson\u2019s Model\u201d and insisting that we all &hellip; <a title=\"The Model Was Incorrect\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=99346\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Model Was Incorrect<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":653,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,484],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-floggings-will-continue-until-morale-improves","category-covid-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=99346"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99346\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99372,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99346\/revisions\/99372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=99346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=99346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=99346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}