The media – and much of the public – appear to have collectively lost their ever-lovin’ minds over Covid-19. Specifically, many are IMO hugely overreacting; they’re all but screaming, at the top of their lungs, “The end of the world is at hand!”<\/p>\n
Well, here’s some data that should shed light on the actual impact of Covid-19 in the US. What follows assumes that current projections are correct regarding the expected number of deaths under current Covid-19 mitigation strategies.<\/p>\n
. . .<\/b><\/p>\n
Under current mitigation strategies, Covid-19 is projected to cause perhaps 220,000 deaths. Now, a US death toll of 220,000 seems huge and horrible. But over 30,000 die each year on US highways; almost no one bats an eye. <\/p>\n
So let’s do a couple of comparisons. Just to keep them more or less “apples-to-apples” comparisons: just how does Covid-19’s projected impact how compare to this year’s US flu season – a more-or-less average one? How does it compare to other really bad flu seasons within living memory? (And no, I’m not going to compare it with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. With the exception of a tiny number of older centenarians, no one alive today remembers that pandemic.)<\/p>\n
Well, let’s see.<\/p>\n
. . . <\/b><\/p>\n
Regarding this year’s flu season: it turns out that CDC in fact has projections of the total number of cases; the number seeking medical care; the number hospitalized; and the total number of deaths attributable to this year’s flu season. You can view those projections here.<\/i><\/a> <\/p>\n BLUF: the CDC estimates that this year’s flu season has\/will result in the following:<\/p>\n a. Between 38 and 54 million flu infections; The CDC’s estimated numbers above are ranges; ranges are somewhat cumbersome to compare. So for comparison, I’ll take the midpoint of each range as the estimated value. (See note at end.)<\/i> That gives the following estimated values for the current flu season:<\/p>\n a. 46M flu infections; The normal seasonal flu mortality rate has historically been somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.1%. The midpoints above thus appear to be consistent with historical norms. However, the seasonal flu’s mortality rate does vary from year to year; sometimes it’s higher, and sometimes it’s lower. <\/p>\n As a society, we take mitigation measures with respect to seasonal flu to limit its impact. Those measures are called “voluntary immunizations”. And yet we still typically have tens of millions of cases annually – and tens of thousands of deaths.<\/p>\n “So what?”, you say? OK, let’s compare the current flu season with the current best projections for Covid-19 with mitigation. With mitigation, best projection is that Covid-19 may cause about 220k deaths in the US. Last time I checked, 220k \/ 43k = about 5.12. That means Covid-19 may claim roughly 5x as many as this year’s flu season – which is a more-or-less average one.<\/p>\n Five times the number of deaths during a normal flu season is indeed bad. But it’s certainly not “the sky is falling” or “end of the world” bad.<\/p>\n . . .<\/b><\/p>\n For some additional perspective, let’s compare Covid-19’s projected impact with two reasonably recent US flu seasons that were indeed bad – but which were both nowhere near as bad as the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. First, let’s compare Covid-19’s projected impact with the impact of the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic in the US<\/i><\/a>.<\/p>\n The 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic was quite bad. It’s estimated to have killed 1.1 million worldwide; 110,000 of those deaths are believed to have occurred in the US. Since the US population at the time was just over half what it is today (174.8 million then, approx 330 million now), that means the US mortality rate for the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic was very close to that projected for Covid-19 today .<\/p>\n A second comparison worth noting is with the 1968-1970 “Hong Kong Flu” pandemic (see previous link above for reference). That pandemic is estimated to have killed approximately 1 million worldwide, with approximately 100,000 of those deaths occurring in the US. Since the US population in 1969 was only approximately 202.7 million, that means the US mortality rate for the “Hong Kong Flu” was also relatively close to that projected for Covid-19; it was 74+% of that projected for Covid-19 – or about 3\/4 as much. <\/p>\n As a society, we obviously survived the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic; we also survived the 1968 “Hong Kong Flu” pandemic. Neither was “the end of the world.” That bodes well for this time around.<\/p>\n While I’m too young to remember much if anything about the 1957 Asian Flu, I do remember the “Hong Kong Flu”. It caused concern, but otherwise wasn’t that huge a deal; people mostly went about their lives without huge disruption. But the media didn’t present that as being a doomsday event, either. <\/p>\n <\/b>. . . <\/b><\/p>\n Am I saying don’t be prepared, and act as if nothing of note is happening? Of course not<\/u>. Don’t do stupid things (like taking the “Covid Challenge”); don’t act recklessly or foolishly. Certainly don’t take Covid-19 lightly – because it can be deadly. Follow the guidance given by Federal, state, and local authorities. Protect yourselves using common-sense measures. <\/p>\n Some individuals and families will indeed be tragically affected by Covid-19; do what you can to make sure you’re not in that group. But don’t quit living in the meantime.<\/p>\n Life will go on. So will society, albeit with a rather high “teh stoopid” factor for a while longer. IMO the panic and associated foolish behavior we’re currently seeing is a gross media-driven overreaction; it’s both ill-advised and counterproductive.<\/p>\n Bottom line: all of this “the sky is falling” hype the media is spreading daily is exactly that: hype. No, the world is not ending; neither is society. Covid-19 will likely be bad, but current projections say it will hardly be catastrophic. And within living memory – and during the lifetime of many of those reading this article – the US has survived two pandemics that were roughly as bad as Covid-19 is projected to be. We’ll get through this one too.<\/p>\n And afterwards, you just might be able to pick up some great deals on TP, paper towels, and hand sanitizer. (smile)<\/p>\n —–<\/p>\n Author’s Note<\/u>: the CDC uses Bayesian Credibility Intervals vice confidence intervals in presenting their data. While both are valid, in Credibility Intervals the maximum likelihood value of whatever you are estimating depends strongly on the actual underlying probability distribution; for influenza, since the mortality rate is different each year I’m reasonably sure that changes the pertinent distribution annually as well. An examination of the last 9 years flu season data from CDC<\/i><\/a> pretty clearly shows that to be the case. The CDC’s estimate for total mortality due to flu has varied substantially with respect to where it occurs within the Credibility Interval during that 9-year period, ranging from (low end value + approx 14.6% of the width of the credibility interval) to (low end value + approx 35% of the width of the credibility interval). Without knowing more detailed info about this year’s distribution, it’s thus impossible to determine what CDC will estimate for total deaths due to this year’s seasonal flu. That’s why I chose to use midpoint estimation for this year.<\/p>\n However, the last 4 years have been quite similar with respect to the placement of the estimated total flu deaths within the credibility interval. For the last 4 years – and for 2 other years as well – that estimate was (low end value + between 29% and 31% of the width of the credibility interval). Speculatively using (low end value + 30% of the width of the credibility interval) for this year’s flu season yields a projected number of deaths due to flu of 35,400. <\/p>\n Using 35,400 for the number of estimated deaths for this year’s flu season (instead of the midpoint of the credibility interval, as I did in the article above) means that Covid-19 would be projected to cause just over 6 times as many deaths as this year’s seasonal flu vice the just over 5 times as many that using midpoint estimation yields. Again: that’s quite bad, but it’s hardly catastrophic for US society.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\n b. Between 18 and 26 million people having sought or seeking medical assistance due to the flu;
\n c. Between 400 and 730 thousand people have been or will be hospitalized due to flu; and
\n d. Between 24 and 62 thousand people have already died or will die due to the flu and\/or related complications.<\/p>\n
\n b. 22M seeking medical assistance due to flu;
\n c. 565k hospitalized due to flu; and
\n d. 43k deaths attributable to flu.<\/p>\n