{"id":85587,"date":"2019-03-14T08:00:33","date_gmt":"2019-03-14T12:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=85587"},"modified":"2019-03-14T12:15:46","modified_gmt":"2019-03-14T16:15:46","slug":"my-legs-wet-and-the-sky-is-clear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=85587","title":{"rendered":"My Leg’s Wet Again, and the Sky Is Clear"},"content":{"rendered":"

I read Dave Hardin\u2019s article the other day about elderly veterans and suicide<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0 And I noticed a couple of things.<\/p>\n

The whole premise of the NPR article that Dave discussed was that elderly veterans commit suicide at \u201ctoo high\u201d a rate \u2013 and the VA was \u201ctrying to figure out why\u201d.\u00a0 Hell, the NPR article was titled, \u201cVA Struggles To Unlock The Reasons Behind High Suicide Rates Among Older Veterans\u201d<\/a><\/em>.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a quote (emphasis added):<\/p>\n

\u201c. . . . statistics show that the suicide rate for elderly veterans is higher than that of non-veterans of the same age<\/em>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Well, longtime TAH readers know I\u2019m a \u201cnumbers kinda guy\u201d.\u00a0 \u00a0I like seeing the data itself \u2013 and I hate being told, \u201cPay no attention to the (data) behind the screen.\u201d\u00a0 (smile) So I did a bit of digging.<\/p>\n

When I \u201cpulled the thread\u201d, it turned out that the article Dave linked in turn linked to a VA webpage about a study the VA had conducted regarding veteran suicides during the period from 2005 to 2016.\u00a0 \u00a0That webpage had links to both the VA study itself (.pdf format) and its supporting data sheets (.xlsx format).<\/p>\n

The study was typical \u201cexecutive summary\u201d fluff \u2013 a dozen pages with lots of pictures and hand-waving, but not much of real substance.\u00a0 In contrast, the data sheets contained relevant hard data.\u00a0 Those datasheets can be found at this URL:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.mentalhealth.va.gov\/docs\/data-sheets\/2016\/2016_National_Suicide_Data_Report_Appendix.xlsx<\/a><\/p>\n

So I took a look at the actual data.\u00a0 And I promptly got rather . . . disgusted. As well as angry.<\/p>\n

It always disgusts and angers me when I\u2019ve been lied to.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t matter whether the lie was deliberate or was due to gross negligence, incompetence, or ignorance.\u00a0 I won\u2019t speculate on the reason for this whopper.<\/p>\n

So I’m going to vent a bit. And I’m going to examine the VA study data the way NPR should<\/u> have examined it – but didn’t.<\/p>\n

. . .<\/b><\/p>\n

“Elderly” isn’t a precisely defined term. One can start at any number of ages; Medicare eligibility is one typical starting point. That’s age 65 for those eligible.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the VA study’s data doesn’t have a category for either gender starting at age 65. So I’ll include two categories from the data as “elderly”: 55-74, and 75+. Since I don’t know how much of the 55-74 category was 65+ – and also don’t know how many suicides in that category’s total were aged 65-74 – I’ll count the whole 55-75 category for each gender as “elderly”. (The NPR article references that category when discussing elderly veteran suicides, so they apparently consider that category as “elderly”.)<\/p>\n

The VA study’s data also doesn’t include a 75+ category for females (you’ll have to ask the VA why; I have my own theory, but it’s speculation at this point). However, the study data includes enough other information to allow the female 55+ categories to be partitioned accurately into 55-74 and 75+ subcategories. I’ve done that below; the note at the end of the article details how.<\/p>\n

Here are the actual numbers from the VA study concerning \u201celderly veterans\u201d and suicide rates, broken out by age and gender.\u00a0 I\u2019ve included the same numbers for both veterans and non-veterans for the categories of interest (\u201celderly\u201d) \u00a0for comparison.\u00a0 Remember:\u00a0 the NPR article’s whole basis is that “the suicide rate for elderly veterans is higher<\/span> than that of non-veterans of the same age<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suicide Data for 2016, from the VA National Suicide Data Report 2005-2016
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Category<\/strong><\/td>\n# Suicides<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nRate\/100k<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Male Veterans, 55-74<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n2,180<\/td>\n8,161,000<\/td>\n26.7<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Male Non-Veterans, 55-74<\/td>\n7,028<\/td>\n25,233,311<\/td>\n27.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Male Veterans, 75+<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n1,270<\/td>\n4,356,000<\/td>\n29.2<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Male Non-Veterans, 75+<\/td>\n2,021<\/td>\n3,995,165<\/td>\n50.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Female Veterans, 55-74<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n573,000<\/td>\n13.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Female Non-Veterans, 55-74<\/td>\n2,875<\/td>\n36,166,904<\/td>\n7.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Female Veterans, 75+<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n4<\/td>\n143,000<\/td>\n2.8<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Female Non-Veterans, 75+<\/td>\n506<\/td>\n12,039,192<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Numbers in bold italics<\/strong><\/em> show “elderly” categories where veterans have lower<\/span> suicide rates than non-veterans.\u00a0 Those categories collectively account for nearly 95.67% of all veterans aged 55 or more.<\/p>\n

You know, looking at those numbers it seems to me that veterans are actually doing considerably better<\/strong> than the nonveteran population (e.g., have a lower<\/u><\/em> suicide rate) in 3 out of the 4 \u201celderly\u201d categories.\u00a0 In fact, it appears that the only \u201celderly\u201d category (if you can call it that) where the veteran suicide rate is higher than the non-vet rate is females aged 55-74.<\/p>\n

And I’m not really sure about those female 55-74 categories and “elderly” suicide. If I had the information to separate those accurately into 55-64 and 65-74 subcategories, I suspect we’d find that the 65-74 category had a substantially lower suicide rate. Other published data from CDC<\/i><\/a> concerning US suicides appears to indicate that the 45-64 age category has the highest female suicide rate, and that the female suicide rate drops sharply in the 65-74 age group. It’s entirely possible that the actual female veteran suicide rate for the age 65-74 subgroup is lower than that of female non-veterans. Or not. Dunno.<\/p>\n

But then again, what do I know?\u00a0 I just read standard English well enough to be able to read a table of numbers from the VA and understand which corresponding<\/em> numbers are larger than others – and I also know that you need to compare apples to apples, not to a bowl of fruit salad.\u00a0 I guess I’m just too ignorant to \u201cadjust\u201d or interpret the perfectly clear raw data the VA made public correctly. (For those who are humor-imparied: yes, that last sentence is sarcasm.)<\/p>\n

Bottom line: when the actual data is examined in detail, it shows that close to 96% of veterans age 55 and over fall into categories with lower<\/i><\/u> suicide rates than the corresponding non-veteran population. That fact is hidden by using, perhaps intentionally, the combined (male + female) suicide rate instead of the examining the suicide rates corersponding to the relevant breakout by age and gender.<\/p>\n

It’s hidden because the vast majority of veterans over 55 years of age are male (nearly 94.6%<\/u>)<\/i> – and males have a far greater propensity to commit suicide than females at all ages. The general population of that same age (55+), in contrast, is nearly 5\/8 female (just under 62.3% female).<\/p>\n

. . . <\/strong><\/p>\n

I really<\/u> hate it when someone p!sses on my leg and tells me it\u2019s rain.\u00a0 And in this case, IMO NPR did exactly that.<\/p>\n

In the NPR article Dave cited, NPR told an irrelevant truth. NPR then implied that point was relevant, making it the focal point of their article – and allowed the reader to assume that irrelevant point represented reality when in general it does not<\/u>. By doing so, NPR grossly misled anyone reading the article. You’ll have to ask NPR whether that was done intentionally or via incompetence.<\/p>\n

I’m also bothered by the VA failing to break out the female data into the same age categories as males. Sufficient data is present to allow that, but it simply wasn’t done. You’ll have to ask the VA why – because doing so would certainly make a valid “apples-to-apples” comparison significantly easier.<\/p>\n

Time permitting, I’ll have more to say on the matter in the future.<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

(Note<\/u>: the female data provided by the VA in the study\u2019s data sheets does not include a 75+ category; it provides a 55+ category instead. However, the male and combined (male + female) data for both vets and non-vets provides sufficient information to allow the 75+ figures for suicides and population for the categories \u201cfemale veterans\u201d and \u201cfemale non-veterans\u201d to be calculated from the male and combined (male + female) data that was included. By subtracting those calculated values from the corresponding female “55+” category figures, the 55-74 age group figures for female suicides and population can then be determined. That in turn allows determination of the correct suicide rates per 100k population for each of those 4 female categories.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I read Dave Hardin\u2019s article the other day about elderly veterans and suicide.\u00a0 And I noticed … My Leg’s Wet Again, and the Sky Is Clear<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,213,118],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-floggings-will-continue-until-morale-improves","category-your-tax-dollars-at-work","category-veterans-issues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=85587"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85588,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85587\/revisions\/85588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=85587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=85587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=85587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}