{"id":83104,"date":"2018-11-28T10:30:17","date_gmt":"2018-11-28T14:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=83104"},"modified":"2018-11-27T23:13:27","modified_gmt":"2018-11-28T03:13:27","slug":"the-fallacy-of-relying-on-computer-modeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=83104","title":{"rendered":"The Fallacy of Relying on Computer Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/weather-model.jpg\" alt=\"weather computer \" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>By- Russ Vaughn<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For those of you who are tempted to believe the latest government report predicting dire consequences for the world in the next eighty to one hundred years due to anthropogenic global warming, a regular contributor over at American Thinker, Dr. Brian C. Joondeph, provides <a href=\"https:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/articles\/2018\/11\/global_warming_alarmism_meets_a_blizzard_of_reality.html\">this food for thought<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The climate assessment is based on computer models, attempting to predict events 50 to 100 years in the future. Recall the spaghetti line plots predicting hurricane tracks, each line based on a computer model, dozens of such lines sending the hurricane north, south, straight ahead, or harmlessly out to sea. If computer modeling were easy and accurate, only one line would be needed, reflecting the model that correctly predicts the hurricane track. And these predictions are for a week into the future, not a century.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>When you consider that each one of those variously colored lines represents a short-term prediction by an individual computer, usually a week or less, and more importantly, only one is likely to be the most closely correct, it should make you think twice about placing any faith in computer models projecting out decades into the future.<\/p>\n<p>And yet half this country seems willing to gut the American economy to come into compliance with the behavioral, cultural changes the Democrats have deemed necessary to avoid the calamity of global warming predicted by nothing more than these computer models. What\u2019s even more alarming is that these same foolish Democrats believe they have the best models for this nation\u2019s economic development. But most scary of all is that they want us to entrust the support and future development of our armed forces, to entrust them with America\u2019s very existence as the world\u2019s leading economy and military power.<\/p>\n<p>This old skeptic can\u2019t help but believe the Democrats economic and defense models most likely look very much like those multi-colored hurricane projections. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Note- Russ dislikes fanfare. I dislike not giving credit where credit is due, but I&#8217;ll make accommodations. Especially for Russ.   AW1Ed<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By- Russ Vaughn For those of you who are tempted to believe the latest government report &hellip; <a title=\"The Fallacy of Relying on Computer Modeling\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=83104\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Fallacy of Relying on Computer Modeling<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":657,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blue-skies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83104\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}