{"id":67990,"date":"2016-09-17T10:30:03","date_gmt":"2016-09-17T14:30:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=67990"},"modified":"2016-09-17T04:14:01","modified_gmt":"2016-09-17T08:14:01","slug":"social-securitys-finances-can-you-say-house-of-cards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=67990","title":{"rendered":"Social Security\u2019s Finances:  Can You Say, &#8220;House of Cards?&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There are a plethora of misconceptions out there regarding Social Security.\u00a0 Some of the more common ones:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>I have a retirement account with Social Security.<\/li>\n<li>Social Security has plenty of money.<\/li>\n<li>I paid into the system, so I own something and am guaranteed payments.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Plus many, many more other mistaken ideas.<\/p>\n<p>The truth is far different.\u00a0 Regardless of how many people have claimed otherwise, Social Security is in effect the biggest Ponzi scheme ever run.\u00a0 It has the false appearance of a retirement plan by design \u2013 indeed, that was only one of the lies told to get the US public to accept it.\u00a0 But it\u2019s not a retirement plan in any way.\u00a0 If it were done by private industry, it would almost certainly be illegal.<\/p>\n<p>However, until recently I didn\u2019t know that much about the details of Social Security financing.\u00a0 Yes, I knew it had something called\u00a0 \u201cTrust Funds\u201d (more on why the quotes are there later in this article).\u00a0 But I realized I didn\u2019t know much at all about how they worked.\u00a0 So I decided to see what I could find.<\/p>\n<p>What follows is the result of that research.\u00a0 This one&#8217;s rather long &#8211; so if you&#8217;re going to read it, keep that in mind.<\/p>\n<p><u>Overview<\/u>.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a brief overview of how Social Security operates.\u00a0 It\u2019s not complete, and is lacking some details.\u00a0 But it hits the main points. It was also compiled from various documents on the Social Security Administration web site.<\/p>\n<p>1.\u00a0 Social Security is funded from multiple sources; those will be further identified below, but are generally identified in footnotes and\/or explanatory text <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/STATS\/table4a1.html\">here<\/a><\/em> and <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/STATS\/table4a2.html\">here<\/a><\/em>. Those funding inputs are mingled and \u201claundered\u201d through two so-called Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d &#8211; which in reality are general purpose \u201cslush funds\u201d that receive every dollar that Social Security takes in, and from which all Social Security expenses get paid.\u00a0 Thus, everything Social Security receives goes into one of two such \u201cpots\u201d:\u00a0 one called \u201cOld Age and Survivors,\u201d and a second called \u201cDisability\u201d.\u00a0 Everything Social Security must pay out is paid from one of those two common \u201cpots\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 Anything left over at the end of the year \u201crolls over\u201d and remains in the applicable \u201ctrust fund\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>2.\u00a0 Those Social Security \u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: line-through;\">slush funds<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u201ctrust funds<em>\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/progdata\/specialissues.html\">buy \u201cspecial\u201d Treasury securities not available to the public<\/a><\/em>. These \u201cspecial securities\u201d are always redeemable at face value.\u00a0 They also accrue interest annually.\u00a0 (Being government debts, the interest of course comes out of other Federal tax revenues or from borrowing by Uncle Sam.)<\/p>\n<p>The Social Security \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: line-through;\">slush funds<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u201cTrust Funds\u201d buy these special securities on a daily basis. All Social Security expenses are paid by redeeming some of those \u201cspecial\u201d securities.<\/p>\n<p>Since the same fund is used to receive current income and pay current expenses, this means that the \u201ctrust funds\u201d are <em>not<\/em> investment funds.\u00a0 Rather, they&#8217;re merely temporary buffers \u2013 just like an interest-bearing checking account (if you can still find one of those these days). \u00a0\u00a0Benefits are still primarily paid from incoming tax receipts, but because these \u201ctrust funds\u201d have a nonzero balance there\u2019s a time lag between receipt of taxes and outlay of those same dollars due to the \u201ctrust fund\u2019s\u201d providing a buffer.\u00a0 The length of this time lag has varied over time and depends both on the fund\u2019s balance and the average benefits dispersed monthly.\u00a0 Currently the Old Age and Survivors \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: line-through;\">slush fund<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Trust Fund has a \u201cbuffer length\u201d of somewhat over 3 years.\u00a0 The Disability \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: line-through;\">slush fund<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u201cTrust Fund\u201d has much less of a reserve on hand; it\u2019s in serious trouble.<\/p>\n<p>3.\u00a0 The Federal Government &#8211; not retirees &#8211; owns these \u201ctrust funds\u201d. Technically, they are financial accounts belonging to the US Treasury.\u00a0 All benefits are paid to qualifying individuals from these \u201ctrust funds\u201d, as are other program expenses.\u00a0 As noted above, it does this by redeeming those \u201cspecial\u201d Treasury securities you or I can\u2019t buy.<\/p>\n<p>4.\u00a0 Individuals receiving benefits actually own nothing. Since Social Security is a government benefit and not something you own, Congress can change qualification requirements, benefit amounts, or even cancel the program outright if it so desires.\u00a0 Don\u2019t believe me?\u00a0 Well, then you might want to read the SCOTUS case Fleming v. Nestor (1960). \u00a0There\u2019s a link to that case later in the article.<\/p>\n<p>5.\u00a0 Social Security is primarily (at present, around 88% &#8211; and dropping) funded by payroll taxes on income below a certain level. These payments are not \u201cretirement contributions\u201d; they are taxes that are legally mandatory.\u00a0 You do not have a \u201cSocial Security Account\u201d with a calculable balance; all you have is an earning history.\u00a0 That earning history is used \u2013 in a rather convoluted manner, which by design grossly favors career low-income wage earners at the expense of those earning a large income \u2013 to calculate the amount of the benefit the law deems you deserve.<\/p>\n<p>6.\u00a0 Benefits are paid, as defined by law, to those who qualify to receive them. Federal law defines who qualifies and what must be done to qualify.\u00a0 Qualification requires two things:\u00a0 meeting an age or disability threshold, and having enough \u201cqualifying quarters\u201d of work under Social Security for which you\u2019ve paid your Social Security taxes.\u00a0 Currently, one calendar quarter of coverage credit is given for each $1,260 earned in a calendar year; earn $5,040 in a year, and you\u2019ve got a year\u2019s coverage.\u00a0\u00a0 That number was lower in the past.<\/p>\n<p>7.\u00a0 Under current Federal law, 40 quarters of coverage over your entire working lifetime &#8211; in other words, 10 years &#8211; are all that is required to be \u201cfully covered\u201d and receive a benefit when you retire. Benefits based solely on age can be received as early as age 62 if not for disability, and earlier for disability.\u00a0 Nonworking spouses receive benefits based on their spouse\u2019s earning history.\u00a0 These benefits continue should their spouse predecease them.<\/p>\n<p>8.\u00a0 Those retiring for disability generally do not require as many quarters of \u201ccredit\u201d under Social Security, but must have varying amount of Social Security employment \u201ccredit\u201d based on their age.<\/p>\n<p>9.\u00a0 Not all income is subject to Social Security taxes. Only the first $118,500 of earned income (the amount changes periodically) is subject to Social Security taxes; this is called the Social Security Wage Base.\u00a0 This is because, regardless of income, there is a maximum possible benefit that can be paid to anyone receiving Social Security Benefits.\u00a0 That maximum monthly benefit is currently $2,639 for someone retiring at their full retirement age of 66 (this will rise to 67 over the next few years).\u00a0 Receiving this benefit requires earning at least the Social Security Wage Base for 35 or more years. In contrast, a person working full-time at a minimum wage job for 40 years at age 66 gets a monthly benefit of $924.<\/p>\n<p>10.\u00a0 Under some conditions, Social Security benefits are taxable income. When this happens, these income taxes are returned to the applicable Social Security \u201ctrust fund\u201d which paid them the benefit, not kept by the Treasury to pay Uncle Sam\u2019s bills.\u00a0 Don\u2019t ask me why.<\/p>\n<p>OK, that\u2019s a rather long overview.\u00a0 Though it hits the major points, it\u2019s missing a fair number of details.\u00a0 So I think you can see already why there are so many varied misconceptions regarding Social Security.\u00a0 It\u2019s complex as hell \u2013 and we\u2019ve been lied to about it for years.<\/p>\n<p><u>What Social Security Is Not.<\/u><\/p>\n<p><em>1.\u00a0 Social Security is not a retirement plan<\/em>. This is the biggest and oldest lie about Social Security \u2013 right up there with \u201c3% of your income\u201d being \u201cthe most you will ever pay\u201d (see <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/history\/ssn\/ssb36.html\">the paragraph here<\/a><\/em> titled \u201cYour Part of the Tax\u201d).\u00a0 While it was sold as a retirement plan by FDR and his cronies, it is not.\u00a0 You do not own anything.\u00a0 Your payments are not \u201cretirement contributions\u201d; they are legally mandatory taxes you must pay to avoid going to jail.\u00a0 You do not have any kind of \u201cretirement account\u201d, nor are your payroll taxes invested on your behalf.\u00a0 Rather, they\u2019re used to pay benefits to others \u2013 currently, with about a 3 year delay between the time you pay them and the time they\u2019re paid out. (In late 1983, that lag was around 2 months.)<\/p>\n<p>What Social Security is is an income transfer program, funded by payroll taxes, that transfers income from those who are working to others eligible by law to receive benefits.\u00a0 Period.<\/p>\n<p><em>2.\u00a0 Social Security is not property; you own nothing<\/em>. I mentioned this before, but it merits repeating.\u00a0 Unlike an earned pension, you have no legal property right to receive Social Security benefits because you paid into the system.\u00a0 The SCOTUS ruled that Social Security was a government benefit, not a pension in which you have ownership rights, in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/history\/nestor.html\"><em>Flemming v. Nestor (1960)<\/em><\/a>. (You can read the full SCOTUS opinion <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/supremecourt\/text\/363\/603\">here<\/a><\/em>.) \u00a0If Congress wants to change the rules, lower benefits, or terminate the whole Social Security program tomorrow, it can \u2013 and you\u2019re SOL.\u00a0 All you did when you paid those FICA taxes was do what was necessary to stay out of jail:\u00a0 obey current tax laws.<\/p>\n<p><em>3.\u00a0 Your benefits are not guaranteed<\/em>. Congress can change the rules at any time \u2013 and indeed has several times over the life of the program.\u00a0 Just ask anyone affected by the 1970s \u201cnotch\u201d \u2013 if you can find anyone still alive who was affected, that is.\u00a0 Or you can anyone who\u2019s had to delay retirement due to the rise in Social Security retirement age.<\/p>\n<p><em>4.\u00a0 You didn\u2019t \u201cpay into the plan\u201d or \u201cearn it\u201d<\/em>. What you did was pay your taxes as required by law.\u00a0 That\u2019s it.\u00a0 You earned nothing, and there was no \u201cplan\u201d to \u201cpay into\u201d.\u00a0 You pay taxes because the law says you must.<\/p>\n<p><em>5.\u00a0 Social Security <u>is not \u201cinsurance<\/u>\u201d<\/em>. Insurance involves paying premiums in exchange for a defined payment in the event a certain event occurs.\u00a0 Social security involves paying taxes required by law, along with \u2013 if you\u2019re lucky \u2013 getting whatever benefit Congress deems you deserve when you retire or become disabled.\u00a0 Big difference.<\/p>\n<p><em>6.\u00a0 The &#8220;Trust Funds&#8221; contain investments that have real value.<\/em>\u00a0 Not really.\u00a0 As explained above, they&#8217;re more like interest bearing checking accounts.\u00a0 They earn little value &#8211; not nearly enough to pay annual benefits.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, those &#8220;trust funds&#8221; are &#8220;guaranteed&#8221; by Uncle Sam, not by real assets.\u00a0 Uncle Sam is so broke these days that if it cost a quarter to take a dump he&#8217;d probably have to upchuck instead if he couldn&#8217;t find someone to loan him a nickle.<\/p>\n<p><em>7.\u00a0 Finally, I\u2019ll say it again: Social Security is not a retirement plan<\/em>.\u00a0 Bluntly, it\u2019s an intergenerational income transfer program \u2013 or in plain language, a means of redistributing income from workers who earn it to others who in general no longer work.\u00a0 In plain language, it\u2019s a welfare program that by design provides an unearned income to elderly and disabled persons as recipients, and is funded by taxes levied on those currently employed.<\/p>\n<p><u>The Social Security \u201cTrust Funds\u201d \u2013 What They Are, and How They Work<\/u>.<\/p>\n<p>OK, above there\u2019s an overview, followed by a list of some things Social Security is not.\u00a0 So, how does it work?\u00a0 How does the money get from taxpayer to beneficiary?\u00a0 Where does it all come from, and where does it all go?<\/p>\n<p>In what follows, I won\u2019t be addressing Medicare; that also has a trust fund, but though there are some similarities it\u2019s a different beast and appears to be run somewhat differently.\u00a0 I also haven\u2019t researched that one in enough detail to be able to write anything about it that would be reasonably accurate.<\/p>\n<p><u>The \u201cTrust Funds\u201d<\/u>.\u00a0 Social Security has two so-called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/progdata\/fundFAQ.html\"><em>\u201ctrust funds\u201d<\/em><\/a><em>. <\/em>\u00a0The quotes are there because in reality, these are merely two temporary holding accounts \u2013 or, if you prefer, \u201claundry bins\u201d or \u201cslush funds\u201d &#8211; that allow income to be held temporarily (and earn a bit of interest) before it is spent within a relatively short period of time.\u00a0 These funds are called the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/STATS\/table4a1.html\"><em>\u201cSocial Security Old Age and Survivors Trust Fund\u201d<\/em><\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/STATS\/table4a2.html\"><em>\u201cSocial Security Disability Trust Fund\u201d<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0 (Though it\u2019s technically in the name, I refuse to include the term \u201cInsurance\u201d in the name of either trust fund \u2013 because Social Security IS NOT FREAKING INSURANCE, no matter how many times people have lied through their teeth claiming that it is.\u00a0 It\u2019s a damned tax-funded government income transfer program mandated by law; neither payments nor participation are voluntary, and taxes are not insurance premiums.)<\/p>\n<p>While the two funds (Old Age and Survivors, Disability) are distinct, they both operate virtually identically.\u00a0 So a single discussion of how they operate suffices for both.<\/p>\n<p><u>Income<\/u>.\u00a0 All income for Social Security is glommed together in the applicable \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: line-through;\">slush funds<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u201ctrust funds\u201d.\u00a0 It&#8217;s held there until it&#8217;s needed to pay expenses, at which point it&#8217;s spent.<\/p>\n<p>On receipt, this income is used to buy interest bearing \u201cspecial\u201d Treasury securities.\u00a0 These are different Treasury securities than those available to the public.\u00a0 They generally earn some interest between purchase and redemption.<\/p>\n<p>These sources of income for Social Security\u2019s \u201ctrust funds\u201d come in 3 basic \u201cflavors\u201d.\u00a0 The first, and largest, income \u201cflavor\u201d is payroll taxes.\u00a0 This is the 12.4% of all earned income below the Social Security Wage Base (for 2016, that&#8217;s $118,500; a history of the Social Security wage base <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/cola\/cbb.html\">can be found here<\/a><\/em>) that is required to be paid as the OASD portion of the total 15.3% FICA or SECA taxes.\u00a0 Since 2000, of that 12.4% of payroll income roughly 1.8% has gone to the Social Security Disability fund; the rest\u00a0 has gone to the Old Age and Survivors fund.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, I did say 12.4% and 15.3%.\u00a0 That&#8217;s not a mistake.\u00a0 If you\u2019re working as a payroll employee, you don\u2019t see that much deducted from each paycheck.\u00a0 However, that&#8217;s because payroll employees only pay half of that tax; their employers pay the other half.\u00a0 Self-employed individuals pay SECA taxes vice FICA taxes; these &#8220;lucky&#8221; folks get boned royally, because they\u2019re responsible for paying that full 15.3% total out of their earned income.\u00a0 (The \u201cextra\u201d 2.90% is Medicare taxes &#8211; which are not limited to the first $118,500 of annual earned income.\u00a0 Payroll employees generally only pay half of those as well, with the other half paid by their employer.\u00a0 Self-employed individuals pay the full amount.)\u00a0 In 2015, those OASD payroll taxes totaled nearly $795 billion in income for Social Security, divided between the two \u201ctrust funds\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d also receive interest from the US Treasury; that\u2019s the second \u201cflavor\u201d of income received by these slush funds.\u00a0 This is the interest earned by those \u201cspecial\u201d Treasury securities the \u201ctrust funds\u201d buy between the time they\u2019re bought with payroll taxes\/other income and the time they\u2019re redeemed to pay benefits or expenses.\u00a0 In 2015 that amount was also significant, totaling over $93 billion \u2013 again, divided between the two \u201ctrust funds\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The third \u201cflavor\u201d of income for Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d is payments Social Security receives from the US Treasury\u2019s general fund.\u00a0 Most years, this consists mainly of the return of income taxes paid on the taxable portion of Social Security benefits; those are transferred by the Treasury to the appropriate Social Security \u201ctrust fund\u201d vice retained by the Treasury.\u00a0 (As I said previously:\u00a0 do not ask me why this occurs.)\u00a0 There are a few other reasons why the Treasury would transfer money to Social Security (or, even more rarely, where money would flow in the opposite direction).\u00a0 However, with the exception of special reimbursements that occurred in 2011 and 2012, these other reimbursements are generally dwarfed by the other types of Social Security \u201ctrust fund\u201d income.\u00a0 (In 2011 and 2012, the Treasury \u201cmade up\u201d the 2% temporary reduction in Social Security OASD withholdings by paying the Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d the difference \u2013 which was a huge amount both years.)\u00a0 For 2015, these Treasury payments were around $32 billion \u2013 with returned taxes accounting for nearly 99% of that total.<\/p>\n<p>OK, that\u2019s where the money comes from.\u00a0 These \u201ctrust funds\u201d thus have their hands in the American taxpayer\u2019s pockets 3 different ways:\u00a0 direct seizure of income (payroll taxes); interest from the Treasury (which taxpayers pay for as well, through other taxes); and diversion of income taxes paid on taxable Social Security benefits that are returned to the fund vice being kept by the Treasury (which taxpayers again must make up through paying other offsetting taxes).<\/p>\n<p>So, that\u2019s where the Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d get their coin.\u00a0 Where does that money go?\u00a0 Glad you asked.<\/p>\n<p><u>Expenses<\/u>.\u00a0 Like income, Social Security has three \u201cflavors\u201d of expenses.\u00a0 The first is Social Security\u2019s own administrative expenses.\u00a0 These currently total somewhere around $6 billion annually, and come out of the \u201ctrust funds\u201d vice the Treasury\u2019s general fund.\u00a0 When you\u2019re talking an enterprise that takes in and spends close to $900 billion annually, that\u2019s not really too much in the way of overhead.\u00a0 It\u2019s around 0.67% or so of income.<\/p>\n<p>The second \u201cflavor\u201d is reimbursements to the Federal Railroad Retirement program.\u00a0 By law, Social Security and Part I Railroad Retirement are coordinated, with railroad retirees guaranteed the equivalent of Social Security as their Part I Railroad Retirement benefit. (Part II railroad retirement is funded differently, is optional &#8211; and to my understanding is actually backed with some real assets besides Treasury IOUs \u2013 just like Social Security should have been funded from day 1.)\u00a0 What that means is that whenever the Railroad Retirement Old Age and Survivor and\/or Disability \u201ctrust funds\u201d have insufficient income to pay Part I railroad retirement benefits . . . the Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d transfers them funds to bail them out.\u00a0 That has happened every year but two since 1960 for both railroad retirement Old Age and Survivors and Disability benefits (for railroad retirment Old Age and Survivors benefits, it&#8217;s happened every year since 1958).\u00a0 However, this is also a relatively small item; in 2015, that total was less than for admin expenses, coming in at a bit less than $4.7 billion \u2013 maybe a bit over 0.5% of income.<\/p>\n<p>The last \u201cflavor\u201d of expense for the Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d is the \u201cbiggie\u201d:\u00a0 benefits payments.\u00a0 In 2015, the combined benefits paid by Social Security for Old Age and Survivors benefits and Disability benefits totaled over <strong><em>$886 billion <\/em><\/strong>\u2013 exceeding payroll tax receipts <u>by over $91 billion<\/u>.\u00a0 Only the other two sources of \u201ctrust fund\u201d income (interest payments, returned taxes\/other Treasury payments) kept the \u201ctrust funds\u201d from collectively losing money for the year.\u00a0 Indeed, the Disability fund DID lose money last year &#8211; bigtime.\u00a0 In contrast, last year the Old Age and Survivors fund showed a net surplus.<\/p>\n<p>After all is said and done, anything not spent at the end of the year is retained in the \u201ctrust funds\u201d.\u00a0 The balance rolls over to the next year.\u00a0 Last year there was a net increase in the OAS fund of around $51 billion.\u00a0 In contrast, the Social Security Disability fund <em>decreased<\/em> by nearly $28 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the gap I referenced above between payroll tax receipts and benefits paid is getting larger every year.\u00a0 In the relatively near future, both funds will have more outgo in terms of benefits paid\/other expenses than income received from all sources \u2013 hell, the Disability fund is already in that state, and has been for several years.\u00a0 When that happens, the &#8220;trust fund&#8221; concerned spends down its assets to pay those legally-mandated benefits.\u00a0 When the fund balance drops to zero, payments then get dramatically reduced \u2013 when that happens, then by law payments will be limited to available income\u00a0 (though it\u2019s unclear if that applies by fund or overall).<\/p>\n<p><u>Observations Based on the Data \u2013 and the \u201cSo What\u201d<\/u>.<\/p>\n<p>1.\u00a0 Many readers may remember the late 1970s\/early 1980s \u201cSocial Security Crisis\u201d. Yeah, that crisis was real. The Old Age and Survivor&#8217;s portion of Social Security damn near went broke.<\/p>\n<p>In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Social Security Old Age and Survivor&#8217;s &#8220;Trust Fund&#8221; went into a downward spiral.\u00a0 At the end of 1983, the Social Security Old Age and Survivor\u2019s \u201ctrust fund\u201d was low enough that it was in real terms less than\u00a0 2% of today\u2019s balance; it had lost almost half its nominal value (and far more in real terms) from a decade before.\u00a0 It had <em>just over 1 1\/2 months of average monthly benefits <\/em>on hand as a reserve.\u00a0 Since monthly benefits are paid by redeeming securities (and replacing them by immediately repurchasing new Treasury securities with payroll taxes received), this means that the fund was at risk of being unable to pay full benefits if the economy experienced anything but a trivial slowdown.\u00a0 Absent those early 1980s reforms, Social Security would have almost certainly gone Tango Uniform (in terms of paying full benefits due) within a few years.\u00a0 In contrast, at the end of 2015 the Old Age and Survivors \u201ctrust fund\u201d had somewhere around 3 years of benefits on balance.\u00a0 (And no \u2013 that does NOT mean everything is \u201cHunky Dory\u201d.\u00a0 Read on.)<\/p>\n<p>2.\u00a0 The Social Security Old Age and Survivors \u201ctrust fund\u201d turns over every 3 years or so. It is, in effect, nothing more than a Ponzi scheme that presently has a largish (3 years or so worth of benefits) \u201cslush fund\u201d acting as a 3-year buffer through which to \u201claunder\u201d incoming payments.\u00a0 The fund has nowhere near enough interest and other income annually to pay annual benefits; those incoming payments are thus used, after being held for about a 3 year or so period, to pay benefits.\u00a0 Only what ever is left over after current benefits are paid &#8211; today, only a tiny fraction of overall fund income &#8211; is retained annually to increase the \u201ctrust fund\u201d balance.\u00a0 That ended years ago for the Disability fund.\u00a0 For the Old Age and Survivors fund, that necessary condition (fund increasing annually) for continued operations will be coming to an end pronto.<\/p>\n<p>3.\u00a0 Today\u2019s Social Security \u201ctrust funds\u201d are <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">not<\/span> in any way, shape, form, or fashion funded by tax payments made decades ago. (Remember:\u00a0 the Old Age and Survivors fund was nearly gone at the end of 1983 &#8211; and the Disability fund is damn near gone today.) Those payroll taxes from long ago were spent decades ago to provide bennies.\u00a0 Rather, today\u2019s \u201ctrust funds\u201d were funded by payroll taxes paid during the past 5 years, give or take \u2013 as has historically been the case.\u00a0 Take away income from payroll taxes and the whole thing comes to a screeching halt in about 3 to 4 years, maybe less.\u00a0 And benefits payments keep increasing each year.<\/p>\n<p>4.\u00a0 The Social Security Disability Fund is a \u201cdead man walking\u201d. It will run out of money (e.g., hit zero balance) within 2 years.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not sure precisely what happens then; my guess is that either the Old Age and Survivors fund gets tapped to make up the difference, or perhaps disability benefits get temporarily limited to funds received \u2013 with the shortage \u201cto be made up later\u201d (yeah, right).\u00a0 Or maybe the Treasury makes up the difference &#8211; if it can find anyone to lend it the additional money.\u00a0 Dunno.<\/p>\n<p>However, any of those options is seriously \u201cbad juju\u201d.\u00a0 The Treasury &#8220;making up the difference&#8221; increases the Federal deficit substantially.\u00a0 The second option cuts bennies substantially for those receiving SSDI benefits.\u00a0 The first accelerates dramatically the coming crash of the OAS fund, which is already projected to occur within 20 years (2035) as it is.<\/p>\n<p>5.\u00a0 Finally: the \u201cso what\u201d.\u00a0 Why do we care about these \u201ctrust funds\u201d and how they\u2019re run?\u00a0 How does it affect us?<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s why we should care.\u00a0 When Social Security\u2019s \u201ctrust funds\u201d are depleted Social Security then reverts to \u201cpay as you go\u201d status, or PAYGO.\u00a0 That means Social Security benefits payments will be limited to that which can be supported by payroll taxes alone.\u00a0 Barring a change, it\u2019s estimated that when that happens in around 20 years, income will at the time support maybe 75% of the benefits that otherwise would be paid.\u00a0 That means everyone receiving Social Security benefits gets a very sudden and (for most) extremely painful 25% financial \u201chaircut\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBad juju,\u201d indeed.\u00a0 We should have listened to folks trying to privatize the system back in the early 1980s.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, we did not. And as a result, to paraphrase the words of Apu Nahasapeemapetilon:\u00a0 \u201cOh &#8211; now (we) are truly screwed!\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are a plethora of misconceptions out there regarding Social Security.\u00a0 Some of the more common &hellip; <a title=\"Social Security\u2019s Finances:  Can You Say, &#8220;House of Cards?&#8221;\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=67990\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Social Security\u2019s Finances:  Can You Say, &#8220;House of Cards?&#8221;<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,213,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-floggings-will-continue-until-morale-improves","category-your-tax-dollars-at-work","category-society"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}