{"id":60587,"date":"2015-06-27T07:37:31","date_gmt":"2015-06-27T11:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=60587"},"modified":"2015-06-27T08:10:57","modified_gmt":"2015-06-27T12:10:57","slug":"more-thoughts-on-gun-murders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=60587","title":{"rendered":"More Thoughts on Guns and Murders"},"content":{"rendered":"

A comment by one of our regulars (VOV) the other day \u2013 along with a video posted by another reader in a different discussion – got me thinking.\u00a0 And it led me to look at a few numbers.<\/p>\n

I know that’s a huge surprise.\u00a0 Try to get over the shock.\u00a0 (smile)<\/p>\n

What I ran across wasn\u2019t really surprising to me, except in one area. But it might be of general interest, so I decided to post what I found and my conclusions.\u00a0 They concern guns, murder, and the distribution of the latter.<\/p>\n

In 2012, the USA had a murder rate (which includes non-negligent homicides) of 4.7 per 100,000 population. That year, the US population was somewhat less than 314 million (313,873,685); there were somewhat under 15,000 murders (14,866).<\/p>\n

What I found interesting was where those murders occurred. As most of our regular readers might guess, it seems a disproportionate number of them occurred in cities.<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 All Cities over 250,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

I was able to find data on the murder rate in all US cities over 250,000.\u00a0\u00a0 I then did a bit of number crunching (Excel is good for that) to determine the number of murders in those cities. Roundoff error may have resulted in a minor error, since I used rounding to get integer totals – but I don’t think it did.\u00a0 If it did, I doubt any error is more than by 1 or 2.\u00a0 Here\u2019s what I came up with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

US Cities over 250,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rest of USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Total Population<\/td>\n55,501,250<\/td>\nTotal Population<\/td>\n258,372,435<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Murders<\/td>\n5,805<\/td>\nTotal Murders<\/td>\n9,061<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murder Rate<\/td>\n10.5<\/td>\nMurder Rate<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Yep \u2013 for all US cities over 250,000 in population, the aggregate murder rate is roughly 3x that of the rest of the country. Although US cities with population greater than 250,000 have less than 18% of the total US population, they account for 39% of US homicides.<\/p>\n

If you think that\u2019s an indication that murder is much more of a problem in cities than in the rest of America \u2013 that\u2019s correct. But stay tuned; there\u2019s a bit of a plot twist coming.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0 All US Cities over 500,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

I decided to look next at cities over 500k in population (Excel makes sorting REALLY easy). There are 33 such US cities.<\/p>\n

The results were a mildly surprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

US Cities over 500,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rest of USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Total Population<\/td>\n41,237,116<\/td>\nTotal Population<\/td>\n272,636,569<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Murders<\/td>\n4,114<\/td>\nTotal Murders<\/td>\n10,752<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murder Rate<\/td>\n10.0<\/td>\nMurder Rate<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Interesting. Though still disproportionate, considering only cities with a population over 500,000 actually narrowed the \u201cgap\u201d a bit. While some of that is due to adding the cities between 250,000 and 500,000 in population (and their murders) back into the \u201crest of USA\u201d category, having any drop-off at all still seems . . . well, a bit odd.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 Well, How about 600,000+?<\/span><\/p>\n

Here ya go. Not much change, actually.\u00a0 Curious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

US Cities over 600,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rest of USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Total Population<\/td>\n37,852,847<\/td>\nTotal Population<\/td>\n276,020,838<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Murders<\/td>\n3,783<\/td>\nTotal Murders<\/td>\n11,0833<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murder Rate<\/td>\n10.0<\/td>\nMurder Rate<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

4.\u00a0 The \u201cTop 10\u201d \u2013 US Cities over 1,000,000<\/span><\/p>\n

So, I decided to look at only the \u201cbiggies\u201d \u2013 e.g., the 10 largest US Cities. As it turns out, there are also precisely the US cities that top 1,000,000 in population. So, I took a look.\u00a0 Here\u2019s what I found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

US Cities over 1,000,000 (\u201cTop 10\u201d)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rest of USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Total Population<\/td>\n25,494,200<\/td>\nTotal Population<\/td>\n288,379,485<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Murders<\/td>\n2.,261<\/td>\nTotal Murders<\/td>\n12,605<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murder Rate<\/td>\n8.9<\/td>\nMurder Rate<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Interesting – and, frankly, a bit surprising.<\/p>\n

The numbers continue to converge,\u00a0<\/em>which along with the previous data indicates the problem doesn’t<\/span> always get worse as cities get larger.\u00a0 One would guess it should, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.<\/p>\n

5.\u00a0 The \u201cWorst Offenders\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s look instead at the \u201cworst of the worst\u201d and see what we can deduce. Sorting on murder rate and taking the \u201cworst offenders\u201d, here\u2019s the list – and the numbers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

The \u201cWorst Offenders\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

State<\/strong><\/td>\nCity<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nMurder Rate<\/strong><\/td>\nNumber of Murders<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Michigan<\/td>\nDetroit<\/td>\n707,096<\/td>\n54.6<\/td>\n386<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Louisiana<\/td>\nNew Orleans<\/td>\n362,874<\/td>\n53.2<\/td>\n193<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Missouri<\/td>\nSt. Louis<\/td>\n318,667<\/td>\n35.5<\/td>\n113<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maryland<\/td>\nBaltimore<\/td>\n625,474<\/td>\n34.9<\/td>\n218<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Jersey<\/td>\nNewark<\/td>\n278,906<\/td>\n34.4<\/td>\n96<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\nOakland<\/td>\n399,487<\/td>\n31.8<\/td>\n127<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\nStockton<\/td>\n299,105<\/td>\n23.7<\/td>\n71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Missouri<\/td>\nKansas City<\/td>\n464,073<\/td>\n22.6<\/td>\n105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pennsylvania<\/td>\nPhiladelphia<\/td>\n1,538,957<\/td>\n21.5<\/td>\n331<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ohio<\/td>\nCleveland<\/td>\n393,781<\/td>\n21.3<\/td>\n84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/td>\nMemphis<\/td>\n657,436<\/td>\n20.2<\/td>\n133<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Georgia<\/td>\nAtlanta<\/td>\n437,041<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Illinois<\/td>\nChicago<\/td>\n2,708,382<\/td>\n18.5<\/td>\n501<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York<\/td>\nBuffalo<\/td>\n262,434<\/td>\n18.3<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Florida<\/td>\nMiami<\/td>\n414,327<\/td>\n16.7<\/td>\n69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ohio<\/td>\nCincinnati<\/td>\n296,204<\/td>\n15.5<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wisconsin<\/td>\nMilwaukee<\/td>\n599,395<\/td>\n15.2<\/td>\n91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma<\/td>\nOklahoma City<\/td>\n595,607<\/td>\n14.3<\/td>\n85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DC<\/td>\nWashington<\/td>\n632,323<\/td>\n13.9<\/td>\n88<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ohio<\/td>\nToledo<\/td>\n286,020<\/td>\n13.6<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pennsylvania<\/td>\nPittsburgh<\/td>\n312,112<\/td>\n13.1<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Interesting. No apparent real rhyme or reason here. Some are large cities (Chicago, Philly); others are not. NYC and Boston didn\u2019t make the list – but neither did Dallas, Houston, or LA. The list almost seems to have been culled at random from the list of US cities with population over 250,000.<\/p>\n

But whatever the underlying reasons these are the 21 US cities with the worst murder rates in the USA.\u00a0 In fact, it\u2019s all of the US cities with a population over 250,000 having a murder rate over 13.<\/p>\n

In the aggregate, those 21 cities have only 4% of the US population<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 But they account for almost 20% of US murders<\/em><\/strong> – and their aggregate murder rate is just a hair less than 5x<\/strong> the national average<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Significantly, though \u2013 those \u201cgun crazy\u201d states with really low ratings from the “Brady Bunch” don\u2019t<\/span> exactly seem overrepresented on the list.\u00a0 None of the states with a Brady score of zero (AK, AZ, and UT) have a city on the list – and yes, each has a city large enough to be listed there.\u00a0 In fact, if you do a quick count you\u2019ll find that a handful of \u201cstates\u201d \u2013 specifically, CA, PA, MD, NJ, IL, NY, MI, and the District of Columbia \u2013 account for almost half (10 of 21) of the cities listed.<\/p>\n

The average Brady Score of those eight “states” in 2011 was 51.375<\/strong><\/em> (the \u201cBrady Bunch\u201d didn\u2019t assign DC a Brady Score in 2011, but for computation here I\u2019m arbitrarily assigning DC a Brady Score equal to that of NY). That average would meet the criteria for a \u201c3-star\u201d rating from the \u201cBrady Bunch\u201d with respect to the strength of their gun control laws.\u00a0 Indeed, all of these states received at least 2 stars from the \u201cBrady Bunch\u201d in 2011.<\/p>\n

In fact, of the 11 states with a “2-star” or higher rating from the “Brady Bunch”, nearly 2\/3 of them (7 of 11) have a city on the \u201cworst offenders\u201d list above.\u00a0 I\u2019m guessing it would be an even 2\/3 (8 of 12) if the \u201cBrady Bunch\u201d had published a Brady Score for DC.<\/p>\n

In contrast, \u201cgun crazy\u201d TX \u2013 which has no cities on the list above \u2013 had a 2011 Brady Score of 4 and a 0 star rating from the \u201cBrady Bunch\u201d.\u00a0 Plus, the US city with the lowest murder rate – Plano, with a 2012 murder rate of 0.4<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 (not<\/span> a misprint; that really is intended to read “zero point four”) – is also in Texas.\u00a0 Go figure.<\/p>\n

6.\u00a0 Comments.<\/span><\/p>\n

A few caveats and comments before I get to my conclusions.<\/p>\n

The “cities” above are exactly that – legal and political entities.\u00a0 They aren’t their entire metro area in many cases; they’re often ringed with smaller cities and towns (the famed “Suburbia”).\u00a0 However, they do generally include the old, urban “inner city” areas for the\u00a0 region in question.<\/p>\n

As I noted above, the number of murders for each city is calculated from the city’s population and its murder rate, then rounded to the nearest integer (best I can tell, it’s kinda hard to kill nine-tenths of a person).\u00a0 So it’s possible that there may be a round off error in there somewhere – I don’t think there is, but since it’s possible I’ll mention that fact here.<\/p>\n

Data for 2012 national-level statistics was obtained a site called “disastercenter.com<\/a><\/em>“.\u00a0 They in turn give the source of their data as being FBI UCI statistics.\u00a0 I didn’t verify that, but I did spot check their 2012 US murder rate against another source and found they matched – so I don’t think they’re “blowing smoke”.<\/p>\n

Data source for murder rate and population for 2012 for US cities of population 250,000 and over was Wikipedia<\/a>.\u00a0 Wikipedia data also appears to be taken from FBI UCI crime statistics.<\/p>\n

A personally retained softcopy of the “Brady Bunch” Brady Score Scorecard for 2011 was used to determined 2011 state Brady Scores.<\/p>\n

Microsoft Excel was used to “run the numbers”.<\/p>\n

. . .<\/strong><\/p>\n

My conclusions?\u00a0 Threefold.<\/p>\n

First<\/span>:\u00a0 gun murder does seem to be more a city problem than anything else.\u00a0 But it’s not equally a problem in all cities – whether your talking big cities or smaller ones. \u00a0 Some mid-size and large cities have a very good handle on the problem (San Diego and El Paso to name two), and even NYC and LA are doing a pretty good job; ditto for many other small- and mid-sized cities.\u00a0 Others have issues, but aren’t sucking wind like the cities on the last list above.<\/p>\n

But some cities of all sizes have a major problem – including cities next door to other cities doing a good job, and with similar gun laws (e.g., Newark, NJ, and NYC).\u00a0 Local conditions, policies, and quirks seem much more important than a city’s size.<\/p>\n

Second<\/span>:\u00a0 My original opinion about the Brady Score hasn’t changed.\u00a0 The acronym for “Brady Score” is “BS” – and that’s perfectly descriptive.\u00a0 Legal restrictions on firearms ownership by law-abiding citizens don’t seem to do squat<\/em> to prevent murders.<\/p>\n

Chicago and DC legally banned most firearms until recently, and it’s still virtually impossible for a citizen without connections to get a handgun carry permit (or even legally purchase a gun) in either location.\u00a0 But both are among the cities with murder rates grossly higher than the US average.\u00a0 And of the US cities with the 10 worst (highest) murder rates, 6 of them are from states that the “Brady Bunch” awarded 2 or more stars in 2011 for having Brady Scores in the top 22% of states:\u00a0 CA (2 – Oakland, Stockton), NJ (Newark), MI (Detroit), MD (Baltimore), and PA (Philadelphia).<\/p>\n

Third<\/span>:\u00a0\u00a0 Little Marty-boi<\/em> O’Malley should shut his dissembling, hypocritical mouth regarding guns and gun control.\u00a0 He obviously doesn’t know sh!t from Shinola when it comes to preventing gun violence.<\/p>\n

Why do I say that?\u00a0\u00a0 One word:\u00a0 Baltimore<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 Look above for the details.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A comment by one of our regulars (VOV) the other day \u2013 along with a video … More Thoughts on Guns and Murders<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[82,156,5,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gun-grabbing-fascists","category-guns","category-politics","category-society"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60587\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}