. . . one short-term, and one long.<\/p>\n
The short-term \u201cgood news\u201d: the US labor participation rate for April was 62.8%<\/a><\/em>. That was indeed a slight increase from the previous month \u2013 and was slightly less than it was this month 37 years ago during the middle of the Administration headed by that “truly wonderful” POTUS, \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Of course, longtime TAH readers know that is NOT exactly good news. Due to normal population growth, that also means we now have a record number of Americans eligible for the civilian labor force who aren\u2019t even trying to work<\/span>. The estimated number not working today who could be is 93,140,000<\/i><\/a>.<\/p>\n The labor participation rate for US women is also at a 27 year low<\/i><\/a>. Due to population growth during the last 27 years, that in turn means the number of American women not working is also at an all-time high \u2013 approximately 56,167,000.<\/p>\n The US labor participation rate is probably the best single common measure of the overall performance of the US economy (and even it is not complete). It\u2019s been stagnant – mired at Carter-stagflation levels – staying at or below 63% for the past 18 months.<\/i><\/p>\n Yeah, the “official” unemployment rate (U3) did go down a bit too.\u00a0 But the \u201cofficial\u201d unemployment rate is effectively worthless as a measure of actual economic conditions. Follow it if it makes you feel better, but it won\u2019t tell you much.<\/p>\n As far as I\u2019m concerned, I\u2019ll get excited about the economy when the labor participation rate begins to show steady improvement over time. So far, it hasn\u2019t. It\u2019s been caught in Carter-doldrums territory, drifting aimlessly and without direction, for the past 18 months.<\/p>\n But at least it\u2019s stopped its free-fall. That only took this\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Second, the long-term \u201cgood news\u201d. Remember all those predictions that Social Security was going broke, and would have to cut benefits starting in less than 20 years? (When Social Security\u2019s so-called \u201ctrust fund\u201d is exhausted it becomes fully PAYGO, with outlays limited to income \u2013 which is predicted to be about 3\/4 of what\u2019s needed. When that happens, benefits in turn will be cut – or other funding will have to be found, through either more borrowing or even higher taxes.)<\/p>\n Well, it seems as if some Ivy League researchers – at Harvard and Dartmouth – took a look at Social Security\u2019s future projections. Their conclusion?<\/p>\nJimmah the Clueless<\/del>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jimmy Carter.<\/p>\nclown krewe<\/a><\/em><\/del>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Administration close to 5 years. Even Carter’s \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 ship of fools<\/del>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Administration did better than that.<\/p>\n