{"id":57868,"date":"2015-01-25T17:27:27","date_gmt":"2015-01-25T22:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=57868"},"modified":"2015-01-26T04:37:27","modified_gmt":"2015-01-26T09:37:27","slug":"some-thoughts-on-deflate-gate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=57868","title":{"rendered":"Some Thoughts on &#8220;Deflate-Gate&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>Author&#8217;s Note: What follows is not normal TAH fare. But I&#8217;ve seen so much scientifically illiterate speculation and bogus commentary on this particular issue that I could damn near hurl. And all our regular readers know how I am about running numbers to ground. (smile)<\/i><\/p>\n<p><em>That illiteracy includes a whopper of a &#8220;rookie&#8221; mistake that appeared in the original version of this article (forgetting to change from gauge pressure to absolute pressure &#8211; hey, it&#8217;s been approaching 40 years since I took thermodynamics, so I plead the proverbial &#8220;senior moment&#8221; here).\u00a0 It&#8217;s corrected below.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><b>. . .<\/b><\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve all heard about \u201cdeflate-Gate\u201d recently.<\/p>\n<p>A quick refresher: 11 of the 12 game balls used by the NE Patriots in their conference championship game were found to be substantially underinflated. The Patriots claim that the balls were inflated to the lower end of the NFL\u2019s specification (between 12.5 and 13.5 PSI &#8211; gauge pressure &#8211; inclusive) prior to inspection by the game&#8217;s referee. What I&#8217;ve seen indicates the underinflated balls were reportedly later all found to be approx 2 PSI below the lower limit.<\/p>\n<p>Each team provides their own game balls for use on offense during the game. The balls are inspected prior to the game, and marked as compliant by the game\u2019s referee. They are then in the possession of that team throughout the game.<\/p>\n<p>Various theories have been offered. Chief among them is, \u201cThe cold temperature during the game caused the pressure to drop.\u201d The NE Patriots claim no wrongdoing, and to have followed the NFL\u2019s rules \u201cto the letter\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Well, let\u2019s look at this.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A Bit of Science Background<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Provided its chemical composition remains unchanged, gas behavior in a closed system is governed by the ideal gas law<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">PV=nRT<\/p>\n<p>where<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">P is pressure &#8211; absolute, not gauge<br \/>\nV is volume<br \/>\nn is the number of gas molecules present<br \/>\nR is the universal gas constant<br \/>\nand T is temperature &#8211; Kelvin, not Celsius or Fahrenheit<\/p>\n<p>This equation is equivalent algebraically to<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">P = nRT\/V<\/p>\n<p>Since R is a constant, if there\u2019s no change in chemical composition of the gas only 3 things can change the pressure of a gas in a closed system. Those are (1) a change in temperature, (2) a change in volume, (3) removal of some of the gas molecules, or (4) a combination of the three. It really is that simple.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Change in Temperature<\/span><\/p>\n<p>OK, now let\u2019s assume the change was due solely to a change in temperature.<\/p>\n<p>10.5 and 12.5 PSI (gauge) equate to 25.2 and 27.2 PSI (absolute), respectively. The balls in question were found to be inflated to (25.2 PSI) \/ (27.2 PSI) = 0.9265 of the minimum allowable pressure. However, they were inflated in (presumably) environmentally controlled conditions \u2013 let\u2019s say 70F. The game conditions were in the high 40sF \u2013 let\u2019s say 47F. Could the game temperature being 47 F have caused the discrepancy?<\/p>\n<p>In a word: no.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike a balloon, a football\u2019s volume doesn\u2019t change much if any when the internal pressure rises from 25.2 PSI to 27.2 PSI. Rather, the football\u2019s volume remains essentially constant. And if no gas was removed, that means the number of gas molecules is constant between the two pressure measurements.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s let P1 and T1 be the temperature when inspected; P2 and T2 are similarly the later pressure and temperature.<\/p>\n<p>That means we have<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">0.9265 = P2\/P1 = (nRVT2) \/ (nRVT1) = T2\/T1<\/p>\n<p>A common mistake here is to fail to convert to degrees Kelvin (yeah, it does indeed matter here). 70F is 294.26 K. Doing the math, we find that<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">T2 = 0.9265 x T1 = 0.84 x 294.26 K = 272.62 K<\/p>\n<p>272.68 K is about 31 F. Since the game was played in conditions in the high 40\u2019s F, um, no that isn\u2019t the case here. This was a cool and rainy &#8211; but not exceptionally cold &#8211; winter day in New England, but the rain wasn&#8217;t freezing.<\/p>\n<p>The game temperature (47 F) only explains a pressure drop of about 1.2 PSI, or somewhat more than half of the observed discrepancy. What I&#8217;ve seen indicates the 11 underinflated balls were all reportedly around 2 PSI below the lower limit \u2013 or 0.8 PSI lower than can be explained by the game temperature alone.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Change in Volume<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Well, NFL teams reportedly \u201cprepare\u201d the surface of game balls after inspection to ensure the surface is to their quarterback\u2019s liking after they\u2019ve been inspected by the referee. If this \u201cpreparation\u201d process somehow added enough volume to the ball to account for the measured discrepancy, that might explain the incident.<\/p>\n<p>However, we now know the actual pressure drop due to the temperature change from 70 F to 47 F \u2013 1.2 PSI. That makes P1\u2019 \u2013 the expected pressure at 47 F in the absence of tampering &#8211; 26 PSI (absolute), or about 11.3 PSI (gauge). So let\u2019s see how much additional volume at 47 F would be required to account for an additional 0.8 PSI pressure drop. Here, T1=T2=47 F. As above,<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">V1\/V2 = 25.2\/26.0 = 0.969 = P2\/P1\u2019 = (nRT2V1) \/ (nRT1V2)<\/p>\n<p>which means that<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">V2 = V1\/.969 = 1.032<\/p>\n<p>The observed pressure of 10.5 PSI (gauge) would require an increase in volume of 3.2% at 47 F. Thus, if the \u201cpreparation\u201d process causes a gain in volume of the football by about 3.2%, the observed low-pressure conditions in the 11 of 12 game balls would be explained.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s see if that\u2019s plausible.<\/p>\n<p>Per <a href=\"http:\/\/www.csus.edu\/indiv\/o\/oldenburgj\/ENGR1A\/NFLFootballWtCalc.pdf\">this article<\/a>, a football can be approximated by an ellipsoid of rotation with major axis a = 14.0 cm and minor axis b = 8.5 cm. Since the equation for the volume of an ellipsoid of rotation is known \u2013 V = (4\/3)(PI)ab<sup>2<\/sup> (where PI is the physical constant 3.1415926 . . . ) &#8211; if we assume that the proportions between a and b remain constant we can calculate how much larger the football would have to be for this to be the case.<\/p>\n<p>Assuming proportionality will be retained, since 14\/8.5 = 28\/17, replacing a with 28\/17 b yields the simplified equation<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">V = (4\/3)(PI)(28\/17)b<sup>3<\/sup> = (112\/51)(PI)b<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Using the necessary increase in volume of 3.2%, this yields<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Vnew\/V = 1.032 = [(112\/51)(PI)bnew<sup>3<\/sup>] \/ [(112\/51)(PI)b<sup>3<\/sup>] = (bnew<sup>3<\/sup>)\/b<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Since b = 8.5cm, this yields<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Vnew\/V = 1.032 = (bnew<sup>3<\/sup>)\/614.125, or bnew<sup>3<\/sup> = 1.14(614.125) = 633.62<\/p>\n<p>This means bnew is approximately 8.59cm.<\/p>\n<p>Since proportionality is assumed retained this gives revised axis dimensions of b = 8.59cm and a = 14.14cm.<\/p>\n<p>If the pre-game prep process caused the footballs to expand somewhat, that might explain the rest of the discrepancy.   That\u2019s only a slight difference (about 2mm in \u201cfatness\u201d and about 3mm in length) in size.  Even professional athletes might not notice that small of a difference.<\/p>\n<p>Still:  I&#8217;d have to see that demonstrated to be the case before I&#8217;d buy it.    <\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Change in Number of Gas Molecules<\/span><\/p>\n<p>OK, that leaves a change in the number of gas molecules to explain the difference.<\/p>\n<p>One way is to use gases that react chemically \u2013 like hydrogen and oxygen, for example. The problem here is that most such reactions are also exothermic (heat-producing) and fast \u2013 and would raise the football&#8217;s internal temperature and pressure to the point it would likely cause the football to explode. They also generally require something to initiate the reaction, like a spark. Those reactions that don\u2019t generate heat generally require long times and\/or some heat source. I think we can rule those out.<\/p>\n<p>Inflating the footballs with gas that begins to condense at around 50 F would also be a possibility, since condensation removes gas molecules also. However, I don\u2019t know of such a gas \u2013 and controlling that to achieve a specific pressure drop would be a nightmare. Moreover, if the weather got colder than expected, that could result in complete deflation. I think we can ignore this one also.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves the possibility of gas molecules being removed.<\/p>\n<p>While air does diffuse through rubber, it\u2019s a very slow process; it\u2019s one reason why your tires lose pressure over time. A 2 PSI drop just doesn\u2019t happen to 11 out of 12 footballs naturally in one half of football.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A Last Possibility<\/span><\/p>\n<p>There is one other possible explanation that I can think of. Suppose the footballs were intentionally inflated with <em>heated<\/em> air, then immediately inspected? Leather and rubber are thermal insulators &#8211; not great insulators, but they provide some insulation.\u00a0 If the time between inflation and inspection was very short, the heated air used to inflate the balls might not be apparent.\u00a0 This might be the case if the ball was inflated in a referee\u2019s presence, then immediately handed to them for inspection.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s see if this is feasible. How hot would the air have to be to cause a 2 PSI drop between inflation and game temp of 47 F?<\/p>\n<p>From above, if volume is constant and no air is removed then P2\/P1 = T2\/T1. That means<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">P2\/P1 = 25.2\/27.2 = 281.483\/T1, or T1 = (27.2\/25.2) x 281.483 = 303.77 K, or about 87 F<\/p>\n<p>So, if the footballs were intentionally inflated in the presence of the referee using air heated to\u00a0around, say, 87 F to 90 F vice ambient temperature, during the game they\u2019d drop to about 10.5 PSI (gauge).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My Guess<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Based on the above, I\u2019m guessing one of two things happened.<\/p>\n<p>First, and IMO most likely, possibility: someone intentionally let some air out of the game balls in question, dropping the pressure by about 1 PSI or so. In doing that they missed one, accounting for 11 of 12 balls with low pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Second: one ball was inflated previously using air at 70F, then given to the referee for his inspection.\u00a0 <em>The remainder were inflated in the referee&#8217;s presence using air heated to around 87 to 90 F.<\/em> This would also explain the observed conditions.<\/p>\n<p>That said, it\u2019s close.  Most teams would be given the benefit of the doubt.  But given the Patriots\u2019 history, well, I\u2019m not inclined to give them that benefit.  IMO, even in 2007 NFL teams just didn\u2019t give up a 1st round draft pick when they were alleged to have broken league rules w\/o a fight if they were innocent.  YMMV.<\/p>\n<p>If I had to bet, I\u2019d bet on the first.  But either is possible.\u00a0 And IMO either is absolutely shady and unethical conduct.<\/p>\n<p>The sad thing is that if this was indeed a case of tampering, like many cases we see regarding stolen valor it just simply wasn\u2019t necessary. The way the Patriots were playing that day, as Andrew Luck \u2013 quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts \u2013 put it: \u201cThey could have used soap for balls and they\u2019d have still won.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Again:  sorry for the rookie error in the original, but it&#8217;s been a while since I dealt with this stuff.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Author&#8217;s Note: What follows is not normal TAH fare. But I&#8217;ve seen so much scientifically illiterate &hellip; <a title=\"Some Thoughts on &#8220;Deflate-Gate&#8221;\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=57868\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Some Thoughts on &#8220;Deflate-Gate&#8221;<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blather","category-who-knows"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=57868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57868\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=57868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=57868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=57868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}