{"id":39364,"date":"2014-01-18T12:40:40","date_gmt":"2014-01-18T17:40:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=39364"},"modified":"2014-03-26T09:11:17","modified_gmt":"2014-03-26T13:11:17","slug":"the-media-gets-it-wrong-about-gun-violence-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=39364","title":{"rendered":"The Media Gets It Wrong about Gun Violence &#8211; Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Many regular readers of TAH probably are probably of the opinion that the media grossly exaggerates and\/or deliberately slants any story that can possibly reflect badly on legal gun ownership.\u00a0 Regular readers are also probably convinced that the media often \u201cgets it wrong\u201d on such stories.\u00a0 Well, here\u2019s yet another bit of support for those theses.<\/p>\n<p>If one listens to the mass media, one would think that US mass shootings are increasing, killing more people &#8211; indeed, that they have become a veritable &#8220;epidemic&#8221;.\u00a0 Listening to the media, you&#8217;d also think that mass shootings are eminently preventable by \u201ccommon sense\u201d gun control measures and more\/better mental health care.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line:\u00a0 actual research &#8211; something that the media rarely if ever does &#8211; concerning the issue shows the media has it 100% wrong.\u00a0 Again.<\/p>\n<p>Two researchers, James Alan Fox and Monica J. DeLateur \u2013 both of Northeastern University, Boston, MA &#8211; recently studied US mass shootings on their own time and dime.\u00a0 They recently published their results in <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Homicide Studies<\/span>: XX(X) 1\u201321.\u00a0 A synopsis of the article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sagepub.com\/press\/2013\/december\/SAGE_massshootnotsubdecreasearmedguardsbkgchecks.sp\">may be found here<\/a>; the latest full version (PDF) <a href=\"http:\/\/hsx.sagepub.com\/content\/18\/1\/125.full.pdf+html\">may be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the \u201cCliff Notes\u201d version of some of Fox and DeLateur\u2019s conclusions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Myth #1:\u00a0 Mass shooters snap and kill randomly. <\/b>\u00a0Not true.\u00a0 Mass shooters typically thoroughly plan their crimes in advance. Common motives are revenge, power, loyalty, terror, and profit.\u00a0 They may be disturbed, but they generally don&#8217;t &#8220;snap suddenly&#8221; and commit their crimes.<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #2:\u00a0 Mass shootings are on the rise<\/b>.\u00a0 Also not true.\u00a0 FBI data from 1976-2011 shows that there <em>has<\/em> been an average of roughly 20 mass shootings in the US annually over that period, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">with no apparent trend of either increase or decrease in the number of such annual period over the past 35 years<\/span>. \u00a0(They also indicate how recent <em>Mother Jones<\/em> \u201cstudies\u201d purporting to show otherwise use arbitrary definitions and inconsistent methodology to falsely portray a recent rise in US mass shootings.)<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #3<\/b><b>:\u00a0 The trend in mass shooting incidents is one of increasing severity in terms of numbers killed.<\/b>\u00a0\u00a0 That\u2019s simply not the case.\u00a0 Random variability seems to be more at play than anything else in determining the number killed in mass shooting incidents in any given year.<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #4:<\/b><b>\u00a0 \u201cScary black guns\u201d (AKA \u201cassault weapons\u201d) are primarily to blame for mass shooting incidents.<\/b>\u00a0 Not at all.\u00a0 They\u2019re used in less than one fourth of mass shooting incidents.\u00a0 Handguns and shotguns account for over 3\/4 of all mass shootings.<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #5:\u00a0 Violent entertainment, especially video games are causally linked to mass shootings.\u00a0 <\/b>Again, a myth without substance.\u00a0 Scientists cannot find a causal link between video games and mass shootings.\u00a0 The preference for violent video gaming on the part of those committing mass shootings may well be a symptom of an underlying disorder vice a cause of aberrant behavior.\u00a0 Or it may be a completely unrelated thing.\u00a0 We just don&#8217;t really know.<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #6:\u00a0 There are telltale signs that can help us to identify mass shooters before they act.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/b>Not really.\u00a0 About 62% of mass shooters tend to be male Caucasians with subclinical psychological issues; blacks are overrepresented as well, constituting approximately 33% of mass shooters.\u00a0 These characteristics apply to a very large portion of the population \u2013 only a tiny fraction of which ever commit mass shootings.\u00a0 Given that only about 20 such incidents on average occur each year, figuring out who will and who won\u2019t commit this type of crime <i>a priori<\/i> just simply isn\u2019t possible.<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #7:\u00a0 Enhanced background checks will keep dangerous weapons out of the hands of murderers.\u00a0 <\/b>\u00a0No.\u00a0 \u201cA recent examination of 93 mass shootings from 2009 through September 2013, conducted by Mayors Against Illegal Guns (2013), <i>found no indication that any of the assailants were prohibited by federal law from possessing firearms because of mental illness<\/i>.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0(emphasis added)<\/li>\n<li><b>Myth #8: Restoring the Federal ban on assault weapons will prevent this type of crime.\u00a0 <\/b>Not at all.\u00a0 About the same fraction of mass shootings \u2013 between 17% and 21% &#8211; were committed using \u201cassault weapons\u201d in the periods before, during, and after the effective period of the Federal assault weapon ban.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>IMO, Fox and DeLateur missed two items worth stressing.\u00a0 First:\u00a0 a primary reason that none of those committing mass shootings between 2009 and Sep 2013 were prohibited from possessing firearms due to mental illness is the extreme difficulty in many jurisdictions in getting an obviously sick person involuntarily committed for psychiatric treatment.\u00a0 (We can thank our liberal \u201cbrethren\u201d for that, since laws they championed require courts to give greater deference to the rights of those who are mentally disturbed than the safety of society.)\u00a0 Indeed:\u00a0 as the Aurora incident shows, that difficulty extends to even getting a disturbed individual\u2019s mental health counselor to alert law enforcement of a potential problem.<\/p>\n<p>Second:\u00a0 the US population increased dramatically between 1976 and 2011 \u2013 f<a href=\"http:\/\/www.multpl.com\/united-states-population\/table\">rom 218.04 million to 311.59 million<\/a>, or by 42.9%.\u00a0 Since the number of mass shooting incidents has remained essentially constant since 1976 at an average of roughly 20 per year, that means the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">rate<\/span> of mass shootings has declined substantially.\u00a0 In 1976, it was 1 such incident for roughly every 10,900,000 US residents (20 incidents in a population of 218.04 million); in 2011, it was roughly 1 incident per 14,180,000 US residents (22 incidents in a population of 311.59 million).<\/p>\n<p>Finally, the true \u201cmoney quote\u201d is at the end of the article:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Eliminating the risk of mass murder would involve extreme steps that we are unable or unwilling to take\u2014abolishing the Second Amendment, achieving full employment, restoring our sense of community, and rounding up anyone who looks or acts at all suspicious. \u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Mass murder just may be a price we must pay for living in a society where personal freedom is so highly valued<\/span>.\u00a0<\/em> (emphasis added)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In plain language:\u00a0 the only potential &#8220;cure&#8221; would be to impose an all-powerful police state that enforces conformity throughout society and stifles all dissent or eccentricity.\u00a0 Um, well, thanks &#8211; but no thanks.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Author\u2019s Note:\u00a0 Hat tip to Paul Bedard at the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Washington Examiner<\/span> for his <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/crime-study-no-rise-in-mass-shootings-despite-media-hype\/article\/2542118\">article<\/a> that pointed me to the Fox and DeLateur study.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many regular readers of TAH probably are probably of the opinion that the media grossly exaggerates &hellip; <a title=\"The Media Gets It Wrong about Gun Violence &#8211; Again\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=39364\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Media Gets It Wrong about Gun Violence &#8211; Again<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[185,156,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crime","category-guns","category-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39364\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}