{"id":34188,"date":"2013-02-17T06:00:16","date_gmt":"2013-02-17T10:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=34188"},"modified":"2014-07-10T10:09:09","modified_gmt":"2014-07-10T14:09:09","slug":"the-butterfly-effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=34188","title":{"rendered":"The Butterfly Effect"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A bit over 45 years ago \u2013 on 23 January 1968 \u2013 the USS Pueblo was seized in international waters by North Korean forces.\u00a0\u00a0 It was only the second US Navy ship to be captured by enemy forces since the War of 1812 (the river gunboat USS Wake was captured by Japanese forces on 8 December 1941).\u00a0 It remains on the roster of US Navy ships today.<\/p>\n<p>During the seizure of the USS Pueblo, one crewman \u2013 Fireman Duane Hodges \u2013 was killed by North Korean gunfire.\u00a0 The rest of the crew was captured alive.<\/p>\n<p>The crew was held prisoner for 11 months in North Korea.\u00a0 Conditions were abysmal, and they were indeed abused and tortured by their North Korean captors.\u00a0 Calling this &#8220;a year in hell&#8221; isn&#8217;t much of an exaggeration.\u00a0 Some of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usspueblo.org\/Welcome.html\">accounts here are disturbing<\/a>; read them when you can afford to get disturbed &#8211; and angry.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->However, though captive the crew did not give up.\u00a0 Even when forced to produce propaganda, the crew did what they could to discredit it.\u00a0 This included use of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usspueblo.org\/Prisoners\/The_Digit_Affair.html\">the legendary \u201cHawaiian Good Luck Sign\u201d<\/a> \u00a0for months as a way to show clandestine resistance\u00a0 &#8211; until the idiots running Time Magazine decided to blow the whistle on that bit of inspired defiance in their October 13, 1968 issue.\u00a0 And the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usspueblo.org\/Prisoners\/Pete_Final_Confession.html\">forced apology of the ship&#8217;s captain<\/a>,CDR Lloyd Bucher,\u00a0is classic as well.\u00a0 (For those who don&#8217;t know:\u00a0 the term &#8220;paean&#8221; is pronounced virtually identically with &#8220;pee on&#8221;.)<\/p>\n<p>The crew \u2013 and Fireman Hodges\u2019 remains \u2013 were repatriated on 23 December 1968.\u00a0 A formal investigation into the incident was conducted.\u00a0 The ship\u2019s captain, CDR Lloyd Bucher, and the head of the \u201cResearch Department\u201d, LT Stephen Harris, were initially recommended for courts-martial.\u00a0 The SECNAV rejected this recommendation.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding the USS Pueblo&#8217;s seizure, no one involved or nearby seems blameless.\u00a0 Nor does higher command, all the way up to DoN and DoD.\u00a0 There\u2019s plenty of blame to go around for all.\u00a0 So in that respect, perhaps the SECNAV\u2019s decision to \u201cclose the books\u201d on the incident from a legal perspective was the best decision.<\/p>\n<p>Given the risk of capture inherent in the USS Pueblo\u2019s mission and the possible damage to US interests should she be captured intact, it\u2019s fairly obvious that a substantial degree of negligence existed \u2013 both on the ship and off.\u00a0 The USS Pueblo carried far more sensitive materials than she should have on her last mission, and had inadequate means, plans, and procedures to destroy same.\u00a0 US forces were available relatively nearby on both land and sea that could have reacted in time to render assistance during the incident had proper preparations been made.\u00a0 No forces were prepared to respond, either at sea or on land &#8211; so none did.<\/p>\n<p>And, lastly, higher HQ insisted on conducting the mission under ROE that were overly restrictive and likely unrealistic.\u00a0 This is particularly true given that the incident occurred during a period of near-open hostilities between North and South Korea spanning the years from 1966-1969.\u00a0 Conditions in Korea at the time were so bad that this period is referred to by many \u00a0as the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Korean_DMZ_Conflict_%281966-1969%29\">\u201cSecond Korean War\u201d<\/a>.\u00a0 Indeed, conditions were \u201chot\u201d enough that duty in Korea and surrounding waters\/airspace from 1 October 1966 to 30 June 1974 qualified for award of the Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal.<\/p>\n<p>But questions about the USS Pueblo persist even today, and new questions have arisen since her seizure.\u00a0 She was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usspueblo.org\/North_Korea\/USS_PUEBLO_Today.html\">moved from Wonson to Pyongyang in the late 1990s<\/a> &#8211; via sea, through international waters between Japan and South Korea.\u00a0 Why didn&#8217;t the US make any attempt to recover her then?\u00a0 Just how badly did the USS Pueblo&#8217;s seizure hurt US security?\u00a0 And why did the North Koreans capture her?<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8212; &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>I won&#8217;t speculate on why the US made no attempt to recover the USS Pueblo when it was moved through international waters in the 1990s.\u00a0 Perhaps some former official from the Clinton Administration can shed light on that.<\/p>\n<p>The question how badly the USS Pueblo&#8217;s seizure hurt US security was assessed at the time.\u00a0 The NSA has now <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsa.gov\/public_info\/declass\/uss_pueblo\/index.shtml\">declassified and released<\/a> a large number of contemporary documents relating to the USS Pueblo\u2019s capture.\u00a0 From even a cursory review of these documents, it is clear that the damage to US national interests and security due to the loss of the USS Pueblo was significant.<\/p>\n<p>And those contemporary documents IMO likely grossly understate the magnitude of the damage.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8212; &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Part of the reason for the timing of the USS Pueblo&#8217;s seizure may be due to chance.\u00a0 January 1968 was an exceptionally busy time for the US military.\u00a0 In Vietnam, the siege of Khe Sanh was ongoing; the Tet Offensive would begin in a week. Further, as noted above1966-1969\u00a0 was a period of exceptionally high tension and near-open hostilities between North Korea and South Korea\/the US.\u00a0 The North Koreans were attempting to create a rift between South Korea and the US; they also knew the US was preoccupied with (and militarily stressed by) our commitments in\u00a0 Vietnam and thus might be less likely to risk additional confrontation as a result.\u00a0 Part of the reason for their decision to seize the USS Pueblo may be simply that we placed her at risk and North Korea simply decided to take a chance and grab her under those conditions.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s plausible, and might have been part of the reason. But I personally don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s the primary reason.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8212; &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Among members of the US military and intelligence communities, the name \u201cJohn Anthony Walker\u201d incites anger and disgust.\u00a0 This is fully justified.\u00a0 The bastard sold out his nation to the USSR during the height of the Cold War.<\/p>\n<p>Walker\u2019s damage to the Navy, and in particular to the US submarine community, is well documented.\u00a0 Modifications to the Soviet Akula-class submarines started with the fifth submarine of the class; those modifications made them much more operationally effective.\u00a0 These later Soviet Akula-class submarines <a href=\"http:\/\/www.globalsecurity.org\/military\/world\/russia\/971.htm\">have sometimes been referred to as the \u201cWalker-class\u201d<\/a> due to the belief that Walker passed to the Soviets key aspects of US submarine technology, allowing them to modify the Akula design to be more effective.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s probably the second-worst thing Walker did while spying for the Soviets.<\/p>\n<p>You see, Walker and some of his co-conspirators also had access to cryptographic materials.\u00a0 Specifically, they had access to keying materials and manuals.\u00a0 Give the adversary both key and algorithm and secure communications \u2013 isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>Losing secure communications can indeed be a game-changer; think ULTRA in World War II. Keeping ULTRA secret was literally important enough that the Allies knowingly let men die to avoid tipping the Germans that their communications were being deciphered.<\/p>\n<p>Only God knows how much we lost to the Soviets due to Walker.\u00a0 We have an idea what he gave them.\u00a0 We don\u2019t know what they used the keys he gave them to recover \u2013 and read.\u00a0 The worst-case scenario . . . is bad. Catastrophic is not an understatement.<\/p>\n<p>Walker is known to have begun passing keying materials to the Soviets in December 1967.\u00a0 The USS Pueblo was captured roughly a month later.\u00a0 And many, to include the former CIA Historian H. Keith Melton, believe there is indeed a direct connection between the two.\u00a0 Others disagree.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t personally know.\u00a0 But it does fit.\u00a0 Though I can\u2019t say for sure, count me among those who believe Walker is at least partially responsible for the capture of the USS Pueblo.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve stated elsewhere that there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=33967&amp;cpage=9#comment-758540\">only a short list of people on this earth<\/a> on whom I\u2019d wish a death by terminal cancer.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usni.org\/magazines\/navalhistory\/2010-06\/navys-biggest-betrayal\">Walker will apparently be eligible for parole on May 20, 2015<\/a> \u2013 the date on which he will have been incarcerated for 30 years.\u00a0 He also reportedly has stage IV throat cancer as well as diabetes.<\/p>\n<p>I sincerely hope Walker never sees another day outside prison.\u00a0 And yes &#8211; IMO he does deserve his current medical plight.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8212; &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>About this article&#8217;s title:\u00a0 chaos theory tells us that a small change in conditions can, under the right circumstances, have major effects on distant parts of a large system.\u00a0 The name was coined by Edward Lorentz when describing how, under one particular model for weather prediction, a butterfly flapping its wings at a particular place and time could determine whether or not a hurricane would form several weeks later at a distant location.<\/p>\n<p>Here, it&#8217;s possible that a single act of treachery may have led to the loss of a ship, a life, and nearly a year in hell for 82 others.<\/p>\n<p>Seems to me like that qualifies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A bit over 45 years ago \u2013 on 23 January 1968 \u2013 the USS Pueblo was &hellip; <a title=\"The Butterfly Effect\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=34188\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Butterfly Effect<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,119],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-historical","category-navy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}