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Okay, we have seen a multitude of articles (and even some comments here) that the single shot at Charlie Kirk was a professional hit. ‘It was brilliantly planned, the killer wore all black, the shot was incredibly difficult’ etc. Utter horse hockey, guys, and we all know it.<\/p>\n
Let’s start with the rifle. Obviously modified\u00a0 at some point over the years, it has a synthetic stock (two screws to change over) and has been drilled and tapped for a scope. ‘Way back when before the Internet turned everything into a collectible and people started to eschew modifications, the most common base for a custom rifle was – you guessed it – the Mauser Model 98. Since the 8×57 cartridge has exactly the same case head diameter as the .30-o6, that family of cartridges (.30-06, .270, etc.) are probably the most common conversions…after all, the Germans produced over eight MILLION of them for WWII.<\/p>\n
Even the Israelis got in on the act – the little brother of the .30-06, the .308, used the same case head and it was a natural progression (hmm, we can get a boatload of old German rifles cheap, and the US will give us lots of this new 7.62\/.308 ammo – for the price of changing the barrel we get a great combination!) Something ironic about an old Nazi rifle with an Israeli crest on the receiver…<\/p>\n
Accuracy from a battle rifle is widely held to be ‘accurate enough’ at 3-4″ groups at 100 yards with open sights. So worst case at 200 yards (or 137 yards per Commissar) the rifle could probably hold 6-8″, plenty good for a center of mass shot, or better when fitted with a scope. And this one is – looks to be a variable scope, which the shooter would probably crank up to full power. Given that the most common variable is a 3X9 power scope, that presents the same problems as open sights would from about 22 yards. Anyone here think that is difficult?<\/p>\n
Much has been made of the shot being so surgical, a single neck shot.\u00a0 Me, I tend to think the killer may have gotten lucky – at only 137-200 yards, he was shooting downhill. Hunters know that when you shoot either downhill or uphill, you have to compensate. Oddly, though, you compensate the same way. Slant distance (ie. 200 yards along the shot trajectory) is one thing, but gravity acts on the bullet’s flight during its flight distance over the earth horizontally, so uncompensated shots typically hit a bit high. At long range, enough to overshoot your target – at shorter range, a higher hit than the shooter really wanted. To be honest, though, at such a short range I’m not sure the effect would be noticeable. (A little Pythagorean calculation would let you solve for horizontal distance.)<\/p>\n
The all-black clothing…seriously? Do assassins dress in “lookeeMEI’m TACTICOOL”?\u00a0 Pants and a T-shirt, more likely, and on a college campus that blends right in. Professional? Sorta, but also somewhat just coincidental.<\/p>\n
And much has been made of the ‘engraved ammo’ – yeah. Now that is one of the biggest amateur flags of all.\u00a0 Intentionally putting a weak spot in a cartridge case that will develop up to 60,000 psi pressure inside it… not likely. Only an idiot would actually engrave the side of a cartridge case. But what if it was on the bullet itself? Heck, a bullet only spins a quarter million rpm, go for it – see how stable it becomes.<\/p>\n
Me, I’m thinking the odds favor a mad kid who laid his hands on a very common but capable rifle, took an easy shot, and got lucky. Sniper? Sniper rifle? Prove me wrong.<\/p>\n
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