{"id":121598,"date":"2022-01-10T12:48:13","date_gmt":"2022-01-10T17:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=121598"},"modified":"2022-01-10T12:48:13","modified_gmt":"2022-01-10T17:48:13","slug":"gun-crime-causation-correlation-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=121598","title":{"rendered":"Gun Crime Causation-Correlation Fallacy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-121599\" src=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/free-zone-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/free-zone-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/free-zone-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/free-zone-500x333.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/free-zone.jpg 770w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The spike in violent crime last year was a marked departure from crime patterns over the last several decades. In fact, 2020 was likely the deadliest year for gun-related homicides since 1999. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gunviolencearchive.org\/past-tolls\">Gun Violence Archive<\/a>, more than 19,000 people died of gun violence in 2020. This spike was particularly acute in major cities.<\/p>\n<p>A theory called \u201cThe Minneapolis Effect\u201d best explains the 2020 spike in gun-related violence. According to that theory, a reduction of proactive policing (also called depolicing)\u2014such as street patrols, stop-question-and-frisks, and traffic stops\u2014resulted in an abrupt increase in homicides.<\/p>\n<p>This theory flies in the face of the gun control narrative, of course. OAM sends.<\/p>\n<h3>The Data Are Pointing to One Major Driver of America\u2019s Murder Spike<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Opinion by Jeff Asher<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>After murders in the United States soared to more than 21,000 in 2020, researchers began searching for a definitive explanation why. Many factors may have contributed, such as a pandemic-driven loss of social programs and societal and policing changes after George Floyd\u2019s murder. But one hypothesis is simpler, and perhaps has significant explanatory power: A massive increase in gun sales in early 2020 led to additional murders.<\/p>\n<p>New data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) suggest that that indeed may have been the case. According to the data, newly purchased weapons found their way into crimes much more quickly and often last year than in prior years. That seems to point to a definitive conclusion\u2014that new guns led to more murders\u2014but the data set cannot prove that just yet.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/opinion\/the-data-are-pointing-to-one-major-driver-of-america-s-murder-spike\/ar-AASCv0S?ocid=msedgdhp&#038;pc=U531\">MSN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A few details about the &#8220;definitive conclusion&#8221; that lacks proven data fails to address:<\/p>\n<p>-The inordinate increase shooting crimes other than homicide.<br \/>\n-The fact that other \u201cstreet\u201d or \u201cblue-collar\u201d crimes remained relatively the same while shootings spiked.<br \/>\n-The timing of the violent surge, which began the last week of May, just days after the death of George Floyd.<br \/>\n-The fact that the violent crime spike was largely confined to major Democrat cities.<\/p>\n<p>Theory: A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested. <\/p>\n<p>Opinion: Everyone has one. Even Mr. Asher. Thanks, OAM.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The spike in violent crime last year was a marked departure from crime patterns over the &hellip; <a title=\"Gun Crime Causation-Correlation Fallacy\" class=\"hm-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=121598\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Gun Crime Causation-Correlation Fallacy<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":657,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[406,82,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-guest-link","category-gun-grabbing-fascists","category-blather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=121598"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121602,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121598\/revisions\/121602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=121598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=121598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=121598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}