{"id":100243,"date":"2020-05-29T09:00:29","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T13:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valorguardians.com\/blog\/?p=100243"},"modified":"2020-05-29T15:56:32","modified_gmt":"2020-05-29T19:56:32","slug":"for-what-its-worth-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/?p=100243","title":{"rendered":"For What It’s Worth . . . ."},"content":{"rendered":"

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation<\/i><\/a> updated their Wuhan coronavirus projections<\/i><\/a> for the US three days ago. I\u2019d guess the update was connected with CDC\u2019s recent release of information indicating the true infection fatality rate for the Wuhan coronavirus to be around 0.26%.<\/p>\n

IHME\u2019s core funding is provided by the Gates Foundation and the state of Washington (they\u2019ve received close to $400M in grants from the Gates Foundation since 2007); they\u2019ve received project grants and contracts from multiple other US and foreign sources over their history. I hardly think they\u2019re members of that \u201cvast right-wing conspiracy\u201d some seem to believe exists.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: IHME\u2019s projection for total US coronavirus deaths by 4 August 2020 of this year (the limit of their projection) are now slightly less than 132,000. The precise figure projected is 131,967, with a 95% uncertainty range of 115,839 to 173,528. <\/p>\n

At that point, IHME’s projected curve for total US deaths appears fairly close to (e.g., within a few percent of) its asymptotic limit. Eyeball estimation of their projection graph puts that asymptotic limit at around 140k if the projected figure of 132k for 4 August 2020 is reasonably close to reality.<\/p>\n

The IHME Wuhan coronavirus model is not without its critics. However, most published criticism appears to predate the major update of the IHME model that occurred in early May. <\/p>\n

And so far, best I can tell IHME model seems to have been the most accurate to date. If someone has a better one, I’d love to hear of it.<\/p>\n

IHME\u2019s Wuhan coronavirus resource page can be found here<\/i><\/a>. IHME\u2019s projections for various countries (their projections seems to show the US as the default, but you can select other nations if you like) can be found here<\/i><\/a>.<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

FWIW, the midpoint of CDC\u2019s estimate range for deaths associated with this past flu season is around 43,000. ( 140,000 \/ 43,000 ) = 3.2558+. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation updated their Wuhan coronavirus projections for the US three … For What It’s Worth . . . .<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":623,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[484],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/623"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=100243"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100243\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100245,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100243\/revisions\/100245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=100243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=100243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.azuse.cloud\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=100243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}