Well, NOAA will come out with a tall tale scientific paper today that says that the nearly 20-year “Global Warming Pause” you’ve been hearing about – isn’t real. Their new cock-and-bull-story scholarly article will appear in the journal Science.
Unfortunately for NOAA, a couple of folks with a scientific background and no agenda (plus a healthy dose of skepticism) got their hands on the paper and its supporting data – which was “embargoed” from public release until 2PM EDT yesterday. These two individuals took a critical look at the data and the paper’s methodology.
The two individuals make a persuasive case that NOAA – for probably the 4th time since January 2009 – appears to have “diddled the data”. Essentially, what NOAA has done is “adjusted” many past temps downward – below previously accepted values – for years before the mid/late 1930s/early 1940s. Then they “adjusted” more recent temps upward above the accepted, measured values.
The net result of these new “adjustments” is to make the now roughly 20-year pause in “global warming” they can’t explain go “Poof!” and disappear. How . . . convenient.
These two are the “money charts” from the article, which show exactly what’s going on. First, here’s the one that highlights NOAA’s blatant data manipulations temperature “adjustments” to measured data in their propaganda scholarly paper released today by year. Blue values represent “adjustments” which are reductions from measured reality; red values, “adjustments” that are increases over measured reality. The “crossover point” is in the late 1930s/early 1940s – precisely when actual unadjusted measured raw data appears to show the beginning of a slight cooling trend.

This second chart shows there have been multiple such adjustments since the beginning of 2009. The adjustments from today’s article don’t seem to be shown – yet.

Don’t believe that’s what’s going on here? Well, then “Rjddle me this, Batman”: if recent temperature measurements – made with highly accurate modern equipment we know well – are so “uncertain” that they have to be dramatically “adjusted” upwards, then how in the hell do they know how to “adjust” measurements taken 60+ years ago on equipment of what type they don’t always know downward? And why is the precise effect of these “adjustments” to explain away an apparent flaw in their claims of “runaway global warming” that previously could not be explained – a flaw demonstrated by their own measured data?
Moreover, these adjustments fly in the face of common sense. Modern electronic temperature measuring equipment responds much faster than mechanical measuring devices from decades ago. Modern equipment thus captures fast, temporary transients – both high and low – that the older equipment simply missed. Modern equipment would therefore be expected to capture HIGHER and LOWER daily extremes than equipment used a century ago, as well as lower lows – e.g., to show a bias towards MORE EXTREME MEASUREMENTS.
If anything, any adjustments to harmonize old and new data would be to reduce more recent temperature extremes to correct for the capture of extremes by modern equipment – or to increase past extremes to account for missing those same transients. You wouldn’t adjust both to harmonize the data – well, IMO you wouldn’t if you were doing legitimate science.
But if you were instead attempting to push an agenda, truth be damned? Maybe you’d do exactly that.
Here, NOAA appears to have adjusted both old and new measured temperatures. And they adjusted them in precisely the way needed to support their “runaway global warming” thesis.
Sheesh. The propaganda here from NOAA seems to be moving well beyond the Johnsonian or Nixonian in scope. This one has the “Baghdad Bob” seal of approval.
And remember: since NOAA is Federally funded – we’re the ones paying for their propaganda.
I’ll let you come to your own conclusion concerning why NOAA did this. I personally think the actual reason this was done is quite obvious. But maybe that’s just me.
I will say this, though. Give me raw data and let me “adjust” it as I see fit, NQA, and I can prove any freaking thing I please from any data set you give me – reality be damned. As one of the authors is quoted in the article from which the above diagrams appear: “In the business and trading world, people go to jail for such manipulations of data.”
The science blog “What’s Up With That?” has an excellent article by Bob Tisdale and Anthony Watts describing just how NOAA is trying to pull a fast one here. It’s quite detailed, and isn’t exactly a “quick and easy” read. But it’s IMO well worth the time to read anyway.
Global warming my ass.