Category: Hugo Chavez

I went to bed last night thinking that Chavez had pulled off what Raul Baduel had called a coup. I opened my email at 5am and found an email from Kate pointing to her post of her experiences at the Venezuelan Embassy in  DC yesterday. So I drowzily clicked over and read it. Then out of the corner of my room, I heard the CNBC newsreader announce that Chavez had lost the referendum. Huh?

I scrolled up from Kate’s post to her more recent one “Chavismo is no longer invincible” and just stared.

Well, that was a couple of hours of ago (that I really don’t remember well) now other links;

Manuel writes;

Democracy wins, autocracy losesChavez lost 3 million votes since last yearChavez lost 3 million votes since last yearI am exhausted, good night and thanks…

Chavez lost 3 million votes since last yearI am exhausted, good night and thanks…

Quico at Caracas Chronicles;

Quico says: Venezuela rejects authoriarianism. It’s a historic day. The myth of Chávez-the-invincible is no more.

Daniel says;

In spite of all the obscene governmental advantage, all the threats and blackmails, the Venezuelan people found the strength to say NO.

¡Gloria al Bravo Pueblo!

 

That’s “Glory to the brave people”, by the way.

Bloodthirsty Liberal quipped;

I wouldn’t be surprised if he did have the votes, but spoiled some of the ballots by using them as napkins.

From Wall Street Journal Online’s John Lyons, an attempt to explain the loss;

The defeat for Mr. Chávez, who is accustomed to trouncing opponents by 20 percentage points, shows how many of his own supporters have soured on his policies amid rising crime and persistent scarcities of basic goods.

High on the list of complaints is food shortages. Mr. Chávez’s decision to fix prices has resulted in acute scarcities of many staples. Last week, the government-owned luxury hotel, the Alba, was refusing to serve customers cafe con leche, a Venezuelan breakfast standard.

“In all my life, I never would have thought there would be no milk in Caracas,” said Luis Morillo, a 30-year-old bodyguard who was standing in line to vote in Caracas’s working-class Catia district, a traditional Chávez stronghold. Mr. Morillo said he planned to vote against the changes.

To be sure, Mr. Chávez retains a deep reservoir of support among Venezuela’s majority poor and working class. Riding a global oil boom, Mr. Chávez has boosted spending on health care, food subsidies and work programs. Government spending was rising at an annual rate of 70% in late 2006, although the rate has since slowed to about 40%.

That helps explain why Mr. Chávez can count on voters such as Marisol Herredia, a 38-year-old hairdresser. She said she was unnerved by how much power the constitutional changes would give Mr. Chávez, but she voted for it anyway, she said. The changes also guarantee her a fixed monthly salary and health insurance, benefits too good to pass up.

I guess the good news and the bad news are the same; Chavez will be President until 2012.

News outlets are claiming a Chavez victory;

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appeared headed for victory on Sunday in a referendum on allowing the leftist to rule for as long as he keeps winning elections, government-linked sources said, citing exit polls.
 
Three exit polls showed Chavez won by between six and eight percentage points in a vote where turnout was low, the two sources said.

If confirmed, it would be by far the slimmest victory margin in the career of a man who wants to rule for life and turn the major oil exporter into a socialist state.

Daniel reports the same unconfirmed results;

Unfortunately I have also received some information that would indicate that the SI won. My NO contact has not given me any sign of life to deny them. Maybe the SI indeed won by 53%. Cheating? Not cheating? We will see, but even if the SI won with 53% it is a 10% drop for Chavez and a bitter victory. Though that will certainly not stop him from exacting revenge on us for not acclaiming him. A psychotic narcissistic is a psychotic narcissistic, you cannot help that.

Miguel writes that Globovision reports isolated malfeasance. Guess which side;

5:31 PM Globovision report Chavista group detained in Zulia trying to vote twice.

 

Photos from The Devil’s Excrement

Actually, I’m obsessed with the Venezuelan referendum today. It’s appropriately enough the 184th anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine, too.

Since Hugo Chavez has declared an embargo on news about the vote until the “official” results are posted, I figure, I’ll be waiting a while. But I don’t see anything worth writing about that’s more important at the moment. From AFP;

The 69 reforms they are being asked to approve include lengthening the presidential mandate from six years to seven, allowing the government to censor the media in times of emergency, and permitting the expropriation of property.

Many voters were woken before dawn by trucks blaring recordings of trumpet revelries. In Caracas, fireworks crumped over the skyline to rouse residents.

There were lines in front of many polling centers early in the day, which was sunny and warm. The capital’s public transport was free.

More than 100,000 soldiers were deployed across the country. Unlike in past polling, there were no EU or Organization of American States election monitors, only international observers invited by the government.

In yesterday’s New York Times, Raul Baduel wrote in “Why I Parted Ways With Chavez“ (h/t Silvio Canto, Jr.);

Venezuela will thrive only when all its citizens truly have a stake in society. Consolidating more power in the presidency through insidious constitutional reforms will not bring that about. That’s why the Venezuelan people should vote no tomorrow, and prepare to pursue a political culture that will finally be able to steer our beloved nation toward true economic and social progress.

Cheat Seeking Missiles has background on Baduel. 

The last poll from Katy at Caracas Chronicles;

 

The Devil’s Excrement reports low early morning turnout, but a commenter says nearly a third of their particular precinct had voted in the first hour.

Daniel at Venezuela News and Views describes early morning in Venezuela today;

I was awakened at 4 AM by some scandal in the street, an army truck bringing some material to the voting station in front. Not the faintest attempt at discretion.

And then at around 4:30-5 [A]M a truck with loud speakers started circulating around with “La diana“, which is the army trumpet wake up call used by chavismo to rouse its voters. Now, what is curious is that it is really the first time I heard it with such insistence. I mean, the school in front of me tends to vote 2 to 1 against Chavez, and perturbing the slumber of the folks is not going to gain chavismo any vote. That sound tends to be used in the barrios to wake people so that they all go early in packs to vote, not only for security reasons but also to be herded by chavismo political agents, least one of them strays. so why that truck going back and forth and making no sound sleep possible until around 6 AM? Provocation? A demonstration of the nervousness of chavismo?

The bad news if you ask me is that I was not awakened by the voters starting to vote. That is, from past narratives readers might remember that at 6 AM there is usually a line formed in front before the polls open and the chatter of people always wakes up the neighborhood. Nothing this morning. No lines at all, a few people walk in on occasion and leave fast!!!! Either abstention is going to be large or the CNE has gotten so efficient that voting is now a breeze…. 

UPDATE: Venezuela News and Views and The Devil’s Excrement are updating their posts at the links above with their observations on the voting. 

Fausta’s Blog has more links and news. Jungle Mom (a long time resident of Venezuela’s interior, and now living in Paraguay, I believe) points towards Daniel’s News and Views, too and asks for comments from Venezuelans. Kate at A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective has VZ blogger links.

Julia voted;

My new friends at Western Hemisphere Policy Watch wonder “Venezuela Lurching Towards Civil War?” A Blog For All  and Bryan at Hot Air compare Venezuela’s vote to Russia’s. In Redstate, Pejman Yousefzadeh says democracy is under seige. No More Spin outlines the Constitutional reforms that are being voted upon today. Neptunus Lex writes that the referendum disputes Francis Fukuyama’s contention that the end of the Cold War ended history. Michele Malkin has some more poll results.

And the US Left still clings to the “Operation Pliers” farce.

Keep watching this space for news – if you have a tip, email me at admin@thisainthell.us or comment here.

 

Photo from Reuters

As promised, Chavez held his own rally yesterday, according to Wall Street Journal’s Jose de Cordoba;

In a fiery speech before tens of thousands, President Hugo Chávez alleged the U.S. was planning to sabotage a vote Sunday on proposed constitutional changes and threatened to cut off oil shipments if Washington did so.

It was one of a string of threats issued by Mr. Chávez two days before the country votes on extensive constitutional changes that if approved would give the populist president enormous powers and set the legal framework for a Cuba-like socialist state. He also threatened to nationalize Spanish-owned banks here if King Juan Carlos doesn’t apologize for telling the Venezuelan president to “shut up” last month during a conference of Latin American heads of state.

Mr. Chávez also told the army and oil workers to immediately take up positions to guard oil facilities ahead of the referendum Sunday.

The threats underscore the increasing tension in Venezuela in what is expected to be a close vote on Mr. Chávez’ proposed constitutional overhauls. In the speech Friday, Mr. Chavez repeatedly alleged the opposition wouldn’t accept unfavorable election results as part of a U.S. plan to get him out of power. “They are making plans to turn Venezuela into chaos,” he said. “We won’t allow it.”

U.S. officials in Washington dismissed any suggestion that the U.S. plans to meddle in the Venezuelan electoral process.

“We reject and are disappointed by the allegations that the U.S. would be involved in any type of conspiracy to affect the outcome of the referendum,” said Heide Bronke, a State Department spokeswoman.

Maybe in the short term Chavez’ threats will impact the US, but in the long term, Venezuela’s economy would suffer more without petro-dollars. Alberto de la Cruz at Babalu Blog agrees;

With 60% of Venezuela’s oil production going to the US, the interminable mouth-flapper could ill afford to take such a financial hit. But threats such as these sure do make provocative headlines.

Daniel from Venezuela News and Views reports some more polling data from Venezuela on the upcoming referendum;

Anyway, it is from a famous pollster who has been holding a tracking for a few months now. Early he predicted a possible SI victory, now his prediction is a NO victory by at least 7% and up to 16%. As usual, all depends from participation. What is new here is the guy going on record predicting a 7% minimum. Well, the poll is through phone interviews as tracking polls do and thus the error is 4%. So the NO, according to his own words, could squeeze by a meager 3%, enough to cause trouble and even allow enough cheating by the CNE. At any rate, my 5% gut feeling prediction keeps strengthening 🙂

But the most interesting part of the tracking poll is the result for the following question: “Is it right for Chavez to qualify anyone that votes NO as a traitor”? Stunningly 70% of the respondents disagreed!

That indicates to me that Venezuelans had an epiphany about the type of leader Chavez is becoming – that would affect the secret balloting. But Chavez has successfully manipulated elections in the past, with Jimmy Carter’s help. The fix may already me in. 

Francisco at Caracas Chronicles reports some news about potential voters;

And then, the stunner: four out of five of respondents are now telling Schemel they’re sure to vote. Surely, if turnout is that high, the Sí is toast…

The Devil’s Excrement writes that Chavez promised followers he’d remain in power for life at his rally yesterday;

With promises of running Venezuela until 2050 if he lives that long, when he will be 95 years old, Hugo Chavez closed his rally of the close of the campaign for referendum reform. And if some of his supporters were having doubts about Chavez’ intentions, just daring to say that revealed to a great extent he autocrat’s frame of mind.

The Left, of course, is perpetuating the “Operation Pliers” story. A large number of the hits to this blog over the last few days have been Google searches for the fantasy concocoted in Chavez’ palace. My new friends at Western Hemisphere Policy Watch are convinced that Cuba’s DGI and Venezuela’s DISIP (secret police agencies) are behind the story.

Cuba’s Brig. General Eduardo Delgado Rodriguez and Venezuela’s Pedro Carreño need to reign their people in. In the end, the “blame the USA and CIA” mantra is not going to get you out of this mess. The region would be a much more stable place of countries such as these would simply look North, know their own limits and place in the larger scheme of things, and just take care of their own. Newsflash amigos y amigas: you are all going to lose, the US and freedom always win.

Reuters uncovers a more dastardly plot;

Venezuelan businesses spent years conspiring against President Hugo Chavez, but the government now says they have found a new way to play dirty — hiding toilet paper to sway Sunday’s vote on expanding Chavez’s
powers.

Naw, that doesn’t sound paranoid at all. Neither does this;

“We know there are sectors that are hiding toilet paper,” Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas told state television on Friday. “A group of business leaders are playing mean, playing dirty … of course trying to create the sensation of product shortage during the elections.” 

Fidel Castro fans the flames of paranoia;

Venezuela, whose people are heirs to Bolivar’s ideas which transcend his era, is today facing a world tyranny a thousand times more powerful than that of Spain’s colonial strength added to that of the recently born United States which, through Monroe, proclaimed their right to the natural wealth of the continent and to the sweat of its people. 

Chavez’ allies are defecting en masse, according to Washington Times’ Jeremy McDermott;

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s ex-wife, his former mentor and the previous defense minister are among the millions opposing a referendum tomorrow on plans to give the Venezuelan leader greatly expanded powers.

“This reform definitely favors the president, as there is a clear and evident concentration of power in his hands,” said his ex-wife, Marisabel Rodriguez, a former member of the National Assembly and now a tireless critic.

Other former allies of Mr. Chavez — who says he wants to rule until the 2030s and possibly for the rest of his life — also called the referendum a power grab.

“This is a constitutional fraud, which the country must repudiate and reject,” said Luis Miquilena, 88, once Mr. Chavez’s political mentor and the mastermind of his first electoral victory in 1998.

Perhaps the most damning opposition has come from Gen. Raul Baduel, the former defense minister who rescued Mr. Chavez when he was briefly overthrown in 2002.

Gen. Baduel calls the constitutional referendum a “coup d’etat.”

Like I said yesterday, however the vote turns out tomorrow, Venezuelans are going to have a tough day come Monday.

Read more at Fausta’s Blog and Captain’s Quarters. Bloodthirsty Liberal says “He ain’t heavy, he’s my despot”

From Scott Ott:

“There is a sinister plot brewing,” said Mr. Chávez, “to try to make me believe that everyone is plotting against me. They’re trying to scuttle this referendum by making me look like an irrational ranting maniac.”

I think Hugo Chavez is slowly coming to the realization that he should have spent more time working on his own population than on world opinion over the past few months. Hobnobbing with Ahmadinejad, Putin, the Castro brothers, probably played well in the anti-US international press, but it did nothing to advance his goals as the Supreme Leader of South America.

His missteps in “maleta-gate” and pushing the Spanish King to tell him to shut up did nothing to endear him to his people. The Miami Herald (h/t PAXALLES) reported the other day that he even threatened to imprison a Venezuelan cardinal;

Chávez threatened reprisals — and even prison — against Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino as church officials publicly criticized constitutional revisions proposed by the president — and to be approved or rejected in a Sunday referendum — as “morally unacceptable.”

In a speech televised to this predominantly Catholic country, Chávez branded Urosa Savino as ”a thug,” ”stupid,” ”mentally retarded,” ”sycophant” and defender of “dark interests.”

But rather than shying away from confrontation with a popular and powerful president, the church fired back.

”Let them jail the cardinal and we’ll see what happens in this country. . . . They are not going to shut us up with actions of that type,” Msgr. Ovidio Pérez Morales, president of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, said this week. The group is made up of the country’s bishops.

It became evident that he’s got his people worried about his president-for-life schemes yesterday in the streets of Caracas (Washington Times’ Martin Arostegui);

Protesters flooded the streets of Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, yesterday to oppose a package of constitutional amendments they fear would make Hugo Chavez president for life and abolish private property.

“Not like this,” shouted tens of thousands of marchers carrying Venezuelan flags and dressed in blue — the chosen color of the opposition — as they streamed along Bolivar Avenue.

On Sunday, Venezuelans will vote on a package of 69 amendments proposed by Mr. Chavez, who says he wants to remain president for the next quarter century, if not longer.

One amendment would get rid of term limits, allowing Mr. Chavez to be re-elected indefinitely, while another could allow his government to seize private property.

The latter amendment says:

“All property will be subject to the contributions, burdens, restrictions and obligations that the law establishes in the spirit of public use or general interest. The expropriation of any kind of good may be declared without restricting the right of state officials during the judicial process.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Jose de Cordoba writes about the basic worries of the average Venezuelans;

Mr. Chávez remains popular with many poor Venezuelans, on whom he has spent billions on programs subsidizing food, education and health. They may like some of the proposed changes — like cutting the workday from eight to six hours and providing pensions for street peddlers and other informal workers — but many of the same supporters are cool toward Mr. Chávez’s plan for turning the country into a socialist regime. “This business which is mine may not end up being mine,” said Luis Peña, who runs a mom-and-pop store in a Caracas barrio and has previously supported Mr. Chávez. “We don’t want more socialism.”

Perhaps Chavez’ biggest misstep in this process was making the referendum about his own future in Venezuela’s government;

“Whoever says he’s for Chávez and votes ‘no’ is a traitor,” he told thousands of followers at one recent rally. He has told supporters he would consider stepping down if the constitutional changes lose.

A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective has photos of the march yesterday here and here. And a video from Julia of The End of Venezuela as I know it. The Devil’s Excrement describes the march from the inside;

It was a long and very tiring day, as I joined the march in favor of voting NO on Sunday’s Constitutional Reform referendum, which took place in Avenida Bolivar, Chavez’ favorite place to hold rallies, but which has been curiously banned for the opposition for exactly five years. This time around, the pressure from the student movement was too much for the Government, and as the students began calling to go to the Presidential Palace, the authorities yielded Avenida Bolivar to today’s rally.

There were five separate marches from various places in Caracas and attendance was simply massive.

Fabiola Sanchez of the Associated Press comments on the size of the crowds;

More than 100,000 people flooded the streets of the capital Thursday to oppose a referendum that would eliminate term limits for President Hugo Chavez and help him establish a socialist state in Venezuela.

Blowing whistles, waving placards and shouting “Not like this!” the marchers carried Venezuelan flags and dressed in blue _ the chosen color of the opposition _ as they streamed along Bolivar Avenue.

“This is a movement by those of us who oppose a change to this country’s way of life, because what (the referendum) aims to do is impose totalitarianism,” said former lawmaker Elias Matta. “There can’t be a communist Venezuela, and that’s why our society is reacting this way.”

No official crowd estimates were available, but opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez said about 160,000 protesters filled the avenue, and thousands more spilled over onto surrounding roads. The rally was among the largest by the opposition in recent years.

Caracas Chronicles’ Francisco has some of the latest polling results;

My sense is that C21 is closer to the mark than Datanalisis here, simply because they make more of an effort to poll the “hidden 25%”: rural voters. So if we can get more than, say, 65% turnout, I think the No will be very hard to beat.

So this one’s in the bag, right? I mean, all the abstentionists are falling into line behind the No vote…CNR, AD, even Marta Colomina, for chrissakes. And turnout was 75% last December, so how could it possibly fall below that this time?

Not so fast. Though it’s gaining in currency, that analysis badly distorts what the turnout challenge is really all about.

Chavez has his cheerleaders, though – like this Badtux fellow who blames Chavez-ism on  George Bush (of course). Oh, and our policy of installing a “white-skinned ruling class” in Venezuela that oppresses the “darkskinned majority”. Buddy, you ought to take a trip to Venezuela sometime – your ignorance runs deep. 

No matter how the vote turns out, I suspect Venezuelans are going to have a real tough day on Monday.

Photo from Fox News Channel

Associated Press reports that students clashed with police in Caracas today;

Venezuelan students in gas masks clashed with National Guard soldiers on Wednesday in protests against President Hugo Chavez’s planned reforms to the country’s constitution.

Soldiers outside the Metropolitan University in Caracas fired tear gas to disperse the demonstrators and students were seen carrying peers as smoke wafted through the air.

Katy at Caracas Chronicles writes that opposition groups have turned 180 degrees and they’re urging everyone to vote;

After a fourteen hour debate (!!), the radical opposition umbrella group Comando Nacional de la Resistencia has just abandoned its militant abstentionism. In a whiplash-inducing change of mind, they are now calling for people to go out and vote No on Sunday.

One of Chavez ex-wives has turned on him, too (from the AP story linked above);

Meanwhile, Chavez took fire from one of his two ex-wives who urged Venezuelans to reject the slate of proposed constitutional changes that would greatly expand executive power.

Urging Venezuelans to vote “no” in Sunday’s referendum on the changes to the nation’s charter, Maria Isabel Rodriguez compared approving the referendum to a “leap into the dark.”

Rodriguez, a journalist, also urged opponents to go to the polls to prevent possible vote-rigging.

“It will be more difficult for fraud to take place if we all vote,” Rodriguez said at a news conference Tuesday. She divorced Chavez in 2004.

The Devil’s Excrement writes that to distract people from the referendum, he’s ratcheting up the crisis with Columbia;

Hugo Chavez broke relationships at least informally today with Colombia, saying that a long as Alvaro Uribe remains as President of that country; he will have no relations with him.

[…]

Remarkably, the popularity of both Presidents was actually boosted by the bickering; as nationalistic sentiments were awaken by the conflict.  Thus, Chavez seemed to be looking for a quick fix to his weakling position in the polls.

While the strategy has very negative consequences long term, Chavez’ immediate needs are more important. Colombia is Venezuela’s second most important trading partner after the United States and provides many basic foodstuffs at a time of widespread shortages with some basic items.

At the same time one has to wonder about whether the initial spike in popularity may be offset Chavez’s stronger words now, particularly among the large voter population of Colombian origin in Venezuela, but we are sure pollsters that are advising the President have taken that into consideration.

A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective has Spanish language links to Chavez’ split with Columbia. 

Some group of crackpots calling themselves Global Research, an offshoot of Venezuelanalysis.com, has uncovered a secret memo from the CIA (ya know those things are laying around everywhere – any crackpot group can find one) detailing “Operation Pliers”;

On a scarier note, an internal CIA memorandum has been obtained by Venezuelan counterintelligence from the US Embassy in Caracas that reveals a very sinister – almost fantastical, were it not true – plan to destabilize Venezuela during the coming days. The plan, titled “OPERATION PLIERS” was authored by CIA Officer Michael Middleton Steere and was addressed to CIA Director General Michael Hayden in Washington.

The memo summarizes the different scenarios that the CIA has been working on in Venezuela for the upcoming referendum vote on December 2nd. The Electoral Scenario, as it’s phrased, confirms that the voting tendencies will not change substantially before Sunday, December 2nd, and that the SI (YES) vote in favor of the constitutional reform has an advantage of about 10-13 points over the NO vote. The CIA estimates abstention around 60% and states in the memo that this voting tendency is irreversible before the elections.

Ohhhh – scary. Like a hardcopy of a CIA memo would even exist in Venezuela, in the US Embassy or otherwise. This ain’t the 50s, guys. SO Chavez is getting so worried about Sunday’s vote, he’s make the referendum about eveything except the Constitution.

Gateway Pundit covers this, Hot Air has more on the CNN plot to assassinate Chavez and Michele Malkin has a round up of today’s Chavez news links. JunkyardBlog uncovers FARC subs.