Well, our “esteemed” Department of State is at it again. And as usual, they are being “farsighted, and protective of US national interests”.
Yeah, if you couldn’t tell – that last was sarcasm.
Apparently a largish number of State Department officials – 51, to be precise – have signed something called a “dissent channel cable”. This document, apparently intended for the POTUS and his senior advisors, calls for the current gang of fools in charge Administration to direct “targeted military action” against the Assad regime in Syria.
Yeah, that’s the ticket. More pinprick strikes and/or drone operations.
I hate to break it to our “esteemed” DoS officials, but that train left the station years ago.
Back in 2012-2013, we stood by and did nothing at the beginning of the Syrian civil war. We then gave lip-service and a totally ineffective pittance of support to the then-existent moderate Syrian opposition (and wasted literally hundreds of millions doing so). As a result, al Qaeda and Daesh co-opted the Syrian opposition; they now own virtually all of it. There are effectively no freaking Syrian opposition moderates left.
Moreover, in the last year or two Russia has moved in to Syria big time. Yeah, that’s right – this Administration’s hesitant, bumbling inaction has allowed Russia to move back into the Middle East directly for pretty much the first time since Egypt kicked them out in the 1970s. Now, any “targeted military action” against the Syrian government is virtually a lock to involve striking forces belonging to their Russian allies as well. That wouldn’t have been the case if we hadn’t sat on our hands and scolded at the beginning.
In short, we’ve fornicated Fido well and thoroughly here. There are no good solutions left that promote US national interests.
Don’t believe me on that last? Well, consider:
• If we stand by and do nothing, Assad continues to kill off his own people while fighting al Qaeda/Daesh forces – with firm Russian and Iranian support. Russia will demand compensation for helping, probably in the form of a long-term presence in bases in Syria. Iran may well do the same. That’s bad, but it’s also IMO probably the best option we’ve got now.
• If we intervene with “targeted strikes”, we hit Russian and Iranian forces along with Syrian forces. The Iranians may well not be able to react. But does anyone here think the Russians won’t shoot back? Then, we either go in with both feet or back down. If we go in with both feet, how does the possibility of “simultaneous war with Russia and Iran” sound? Is Syria worth that?
• Even if by some miracle the Russians and Iranians leave, we’re still screwed. Let’s say we help the Syrian opposition take out the Assad regime, and the Syrian opposition takes over. That opposition now appears thoroughly dominated by al Qaeda and Daesh. If you think they’ll willingly let a “moderate regime” friendly to the West take power, you’re naïve as hell. So backing the Syrian opposition and winning now probably sets up an al Qaeda or Daesh Caliphate in Syria, either immediately or within a couple of years. (Remember – after the Iranian Revolution, Khomeini didn’t immediately take power. It took several months for Khomeini to throw out the remaining Iranian moderates under Bakhtiar and Bazargan – who initially held power – and establish his dictatorial theocracy.)
Anyway: initially, we had options. Now, we really have no good options. So jumping in militarily with both feet – unless we’re willing to conquer and occupy, possibly after fighting a war against both Russia and Iran – makes absolutely no sense at all.
. . .
Yeah, the Syrian Civil War is nasty. Lots of innocents are dying. But there aren’t any “good guys” left to support that have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. We get involved, it’s a lock that all we’ll do is p!ss away more US lives and dollars to no good end.
We had our chance about 4 years ago to make a difference in Syria. We screwed up by-the-numbers then, and the chance is no longer there.
But here, we picked the worst possible course of action. We took actions that destabilized Syria (see “Spring, Arab”) – then failed to follow through, leaving those we encouraged twisting in the wind and leading indirectly to the rise of Daesh. Hell, letting Assad continue to rule Syria with an iron hand would have cost fewer innocents their lives, kept Russia “on the outside looking in”, and likely marginalized Daesh or prevented their formation entirely.
I’ve maintained all along that we had no “dog in this fight”; that was true IMO from day one. Assad is a true bastard, but many if not all foreseeable potential alternatives and outcomes of his overthrow then were no better for the US. Now, barring a literal miracle all of those alternatives are IMO far worse than his continued rule.
Sometimes, “Better the Devil ye know . . . . “ is damn good advice.