Category: Foreign Policy

  • Hope and Change as foreign policy

    Russian soldiers in the Ukraine

    I hate to keep writing about the stuff in the Ukraine, but it’s difficult not to do so, especially since I get to say “I told you so” so often. But, the Washington Post editorial board seems to have finally turned against the current administration on this event, I’m sure they’ll be kissing and making up soon, but allow me to enjoy the momentary schadenfreude for however long it lasts;

    For five years, President Obama has led a foreign policy based more on how he thinks the world should operate than on reality. It was a world in which “the tide of war is receding” and the United States could, without much risk, radically reduce the size of its armed forces. Other leaders, in this vision, would behave rationally and in the interest of their people and the world. Invasions, brute force, great-power games and shifting alliances — these were things of the past.

    Secretary of State John F. Kerry displayed this mindset on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday when he said, of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, “It’s a 19th century act in the 21st century.”

    That’s a nice thought, and we all know what he means. A country’s standing is no longer measured in throw-weight or battalions. The world is too interconnected to break into blocs. A small country that plugs into cyberspace can deliver more prosperity to its people (think Singapore or Estonia) than a giant with natural resources and standing armies.

    Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not received the memo on 21st-century behavior.

    Neither have the Iranians, al Qaeda, North Koreans, Syrians, Chinese, al Shabbab, Filipino Moros, Haqani network, etc…. So who is really out of touch here? We have the recent example of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait, another example of the early 20th century land-grabbing bullshit. And guess what, Hussein called it “annexing” Iraq’s 19th Province. And it happened as we were trying to drawdown from the Cold War, like we’re trying to drawdown from the war against terror now. So who is being naive here, the Russians who act like they’re in the 20th century, or Obama who thinks that when the calender rolls over, so does our defense policy?

    The fact remains that are evil people in the world who intend harm to others. it doesn’t always affect us directly, like the 9/11 attack, but by the US being weaker, the world becomes less safe. yeah, it’s not our job to police the world, but no one else seems to be doing it. And certainly, the Russians taking over the Crimea won’t affect my paycheck, but it makes my paycheck less safe depending on how this administration reacts to the Russians. The US stock markets are selling off today because this weekend’s news. That affects me.

    Fox News writes that no one in the Obama Administration should have been surprised by last week’s events;

    But Republicans nevertheless are blaming Obama in part for Putin’s aggression, pointing to a series of steps, or missteps, over the last five years.

    Rogers said the first was the controversial 2009 decision to abandon a missile-defense agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic. The administration argued at the time that it no longer needed the infrastructure to counter Iran and could make do by upgrading existing interceptors.

    But Russia was watching.

    “It caused huge problems for our allies and emboldened the Russians,” Rogers said. “And it really has been a downhill slide.”

    In the pages of the Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer writes;

    The E.U. dithers and Barack Obama slumbers. After near- total silence during the first three months of Ukraine’s struggle for freedom, Obama said on camera last week that in his view Ukraine is no “Cold War chessboard.”

    Unfortunately, this is exactly what it is for Putin. He wants Ukraine back.

    Obama wants stability, the New York Times reports, quoting internal sources. He sees Ukraine as merely a crisis to be managed rather than an opportunity to alter the increasingly autocratic trajectory of the region, allow Ukrainians to join their destiny to the West and block Russian neo-imperialism.

    Because, you know, this administration is so good at “managing crises”, evidenced by the long list of successes, both domestic and foreign policy-wise in the last five years. I can’t even count them on finger.

    By the way, according to yet another Washington Post link, the Ukraine isn’t going to sit idly by as they are overrun;

    Ukraine’s new prime minister said the bold and provocative Russian troop movements in Crimea in recent days amounted to a “declaration of war to my country.” Ukrainian officials sounded a mobilization order Sunday for army reservists to report for duty immediately.

    Added late-breaking news; Russians have demanded that two Ukrainian ships surrender or risk being attacked, according to the Associated Press.

  • 6,000 Russian troops in the Crimea

    Vlad Putin went to the Russian Parliament on Saturday and asked for permission to use troops in the Ukraine, you know, as if he really needed to ask. He told the Parliament that the troops were needed to protect ethnic Russians in the Crimea. Ethnic Russians, not Russian citizens. An excuse right of the early 20th century. From the Washington Times;

    “I’m submitting a request for using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine pending the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country,” Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin.

    He sent the request to the Russian legislature’s upper house, which has to approve the motion, according to the constitution.

    In Crimea, the pro-Russian regional prime minister had earlier claimed control of the military and police there and asked Putin for help in keeping peace, sharpening the discord between the two Slavic neighbor countries.

    It was the latest escalation following the ouster of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president last week by a protest movement aimed at turning Ukraine toward the European Union and away from Russia.

    Meanwhile, the US president and his Secretary of State are getting criticism at home for their reaction to the Russian incursion into a sovereign nation;

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers said the White House’s ongoing response to the entire situation only gives Mr. Putin the upper hand.

    “[Putin’s] running circles around us,” Mr. Rogers said, during a “Fox News Sunday” appearance reported by the New York Post. “Putin is playing chess and I think we are playing marbles, and I don’t think it’s even close.”

    He said the Obama administration ought to take strong action and boot Russia from the G8. Meanwhile, Congress could start drumming up some sanctions against Russia, he suggested, the New York Post reported.

    Yeah, sanctions, that’ll do it. The time to do something about this situation has passed. Sanctions are working so well against Iran and North Korea, you know, those two fourth world nations, so let’s try them against first world Russia. Funny how an administration that has been so focused on domestic issues keeps getting the horns from foreign policy that they’ve virtually ignored since day one.

    If this administration had stood up to Putin in the beginning, they might have some credibility now. They should have threaten to restart a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic when the Russians refused to turn over Ed Snowden, the NSA spy. Maybe we’ll get lucky and the Russians will kidnap John Kerry while he’s in Kiev.

  • Kerry: All options on the table

    Russians in the Ukraine

    The Washington Times reports that Secretary of State John Kerry (that still sounds weird) told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that the Obama Administration “is currently considering all options, they’re all on the table”.

    President Obama had a phone call Saturday with Russian president Vladimir Putin calling on him to roll back the invasion of Crimea and urging Russia to talk with the Ukranian government.

    Mr. Kerry said it is too soon to tell if the phone call will push Russia to end the conflict with diplomacy.

    “There’s no question but that Russia needs to understand this is serious and we and the other friends and allies engaged in this are all deadly serious about this. You can not behave like this in the 21st century,” Mr. Kerry said.

    Scolding will work. I’m sure. The US has become the Ned Flanders of the community of nations. Other folks can take our stuff, break our stuff, call us names, kill our citizens, and we’ll still call them “good neighborinos”. It didn’t start in 2009, either, but it sure hasn’t improved in the last few years.

    Remember in 2007 when the US started talks with Poland and the Czech Republic to station anti-ballistic missiles there, and then Vlad Putin started rattling his saber. He warned Poland that a US missile shield there would cause World War III. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn the deputy chief of staff of Russia’s armed forces said “Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike – 100 percent”.

    So, even after we had signed the “Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Poland Concerning the Deployment of Ground-Based Ballistic Missile Defense Interceptors in the Territory of the Republic of Poland” in August of 2008, the Obama Administration abandoned the agreement a little more than a year later.

    So our stationing of defensive missiles in an ally’s country could provoke a war, but not Putin’s invasion of one of our allies doesn’t worry isn’t an act of war?

    Like I’ve said, I don’t think that a war with Russia should be “on the table”, but our greatest weapon on the world stage was the perception that we would have the balls to protect our interests in the world. That perception no longer exists. So Kerry’s words ring hollow. Even Marco Rubio’s 8 Steps to Punish Russia in Politico sound pretty hollow and weak.

    I’m sure it’s no coincidence that this happened while the Pentagon is doing it’s level best to jerk the teeth out of our fighting force. It happened to George HW Bush in 1990, and history/reality comes around again to bite our ass.

  • Russian “armed invasion”; Obama “deeply concerned”

    Fox News reports that armed Russian troops have landed in the Crimea, but don’t worry because the White House tells us that our President is “deeply concerned” about the developments;

    At the White House, President Obama said the U.S. government is “deeply concerned” by reports of Russian “military movements” and warned any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty would be “deeply destabilizing.”

    “There will be costs” for any military intervention, he said, without specifying what those costs might be.

    U.S. officials told Fox News they see “evidence of air and maritime movement into and out of Crimea by Russian forces” although the Pentagon declined to officially “characterize” the movement.

    Agence France Press quoted a top Ukranian official as saying Russian aircraft carrying nearly 2,000 suspected troops have landed at a military air base near the regional capital of the restive Crimean peninsula.

    No one can seem to get a reaction about the armed invasion from Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, but he was reportedly rolling on the floor laughing his ass off. It’s not that I want Obama to do anything about this, it’s way too late for that. But, you know if he had any credibility in dealing with other nations, this might not have happened in the first place. We went from being the leader of the free world to being the laughing stock of our opponents. So, let’s just sit back and watch the EU and NATO deal with this one. From AFP;

    Obama recognized that Russia had interests and cultural and economic ties with Ukraine, and also had a military facility in Crimea, which was ceded to the Soviet republic of Ukraine by the Soviet Union in 1954.

    But he said any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be “deeply destabilizing.”

    “The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine,” Obama said.

    Yeah, this one will work out great.

  • Poking the bear

    Yesterday, the Obama Administration issued a warning to the Russians to stay out of Ukrainian affairs. So this morning we awake to pictures of armed soldiers with no patches on their uniform at two airports in the Crimea. From the Washington Times;

    But Thursday’s events and the grim warnings from powerful U.S. lawmakers that Russia ultimately will invade Ukraine just as it did Georgia in 2008 demonstrate that the Obama administration, whether it likes it or not, is at odds again with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the global stage.

    Analysts say there is little the U.S. can do, other than issue strongly worded statements or pursue some economic sanctions, if the situation deteriorates.

    For now, the White House is sticking with statements.

    “We strongly support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and we expect other nations to do the same and so we are closely watching Russian military exercises along the Ukrainian border,” White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters Thursday.

    That was yesterday, today, troops at airports, and ships in the Black Sea, says Fox News;

    A Reuters eyewitness at the scene said the men were dressed in full battle gear and carrying assault rifles and machine guns. They were reportedly moving freely in an out of a control tower.

    On Thursday, masked gunmen with rocket-propelled grenades and sniper rifles seized the parliament and government offices in Simferopol and raised the Russian flag over the parliament building.

    Ukrainian officials sharply denounced the move. Ukrainian police cordoned off the area, but didn’t confront the gunmen.

    The more that this administration tries to do in regards to this action, the weaker they will appear on the world stage. Putin’s gonna do what Putin is gonna do. We’ve already made it clear that we don’t approve, and that’s all we can reasonably do. It was charitable of the Washington Times to call some US lawmakers “powerful” but we’re really powerless in this whole thing. What are we going to do? Drone Putin?

  • Obama warns Putin on Ukraine

    putin-bear

    The Washington Times reports that the Obama Administration warned Russia to keep their distance from the events unfolding in the Ukraine. Of course. That’s an easy threat because the Russians have shown no outward movements to interfering in the process there.

    But with Ukraine’s interim government signaling its desire Sunday to quickly put the nation back on course toward Western integration, it was uncertain how far Mr. Putin would be willing to go to save face in a conflict that he had, until recently, appeared to be winning in the former Soviet republic.

    Ms. Rice, who appeared Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” resisted the notion that Moscow and Washington were locked in a kind of Cold War-era standoff over Ukraine. However, other top players in the Obama administration seemed to be working behind the scenes to hammer home a message to Moscow that Washington will not tolerate any Russian aggression in Ukraine.

    Yeah, well, then go ahead and poke the bear to get the response you expect and not the one you want. You’d think a smart diplomat would make their druthers known in private rather than publicly challenging the opponent. I’m sure that they can screw this up without half-trying.

  • Losing the peace in the South Sudan

    Paul sends us a link to Foreign Policy which digs into the rise of violence in the South Sudan. They find Hope & Change behind it;

    It’s an extraordinary and painful development, given America’s major role in securing independence for South Sudan. But the toughest part for Americans to swallow may be that it’s the U.S.-backed leaders of South Sudan — the supposed good guys — that are responsible for plunging the country into chaos and threatening to wreck America’s signature achievement in the region.

    […]

    The country’s quick descent into the inter-ethnic violence has stunned American observers, who had long viewed the Sudanese government in Khartoum as posing the greatest threat to South Sudan’s future. But it’s South Sudan’s own unresolved internal political and ethnic differences that appear to be endangering the country’s hopes. Sudan was the site of one of Africa’s longest and bloodiest civil wars, with as many as 2 million dying from combat, hunger, and disease in a conflict that lasted 22 years.

    […]

    In Washington, U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice, who has championed South Sudan’s cause in the United States and at the United Nations for more than two decades, warned this weekend that the United States’ longstanding support was in jeopardy.

    “For all those who choose the path of peace and democracy, know that the United States will continue to stand with you, as we have at every step of your journey,” said Rice, who has spoken to both Kiir and Machar in recent days, according to a source close to her. “But, I must also be clear: If a different choice is made, if individuals or groups seek to take or hold power through force, mass violence, or intimidation, the United States will have no choice but to withdraw our traditional, robust support. Killing will only lead to deprivation and isolation for the people of South Sudan.”

    Who would have thought that folks who had been fighting a guerrilla war for two decades wouldn’t be able to peaceably govern a new country? Certainly, no one who has ignored human history could have thought it would happen. And, oh yeah, there are now 40 Army troops in Sudan to evacuate Americans there, and another 150 Marines in the neighborhood.

  • Yeah, That’s Really “Presidential” Behavior

    Here’s a picture of the POTUS sharing a lighter moment with some other international leaders.

    There’s just one tiny little problem.  The above happened at the memorial service for Nelson Mandela.

    Way to very publicly reinforce the negative stereotype of the “ugly American”, Mr. President.

    Sheesh.  You think the POTUS would know better than to act like a young teen playing with a Game Boy while attending a freaking state funeral as the senior representative of the United States of America.  Even LBJ – as crude and vulgar a man as we’ve ever had serve as POTUS – had better sense and taste than that.

    Oh well, at least the First Lady apparently acted like an adult with a bit of dignity.  Kudos to her.

    It’s the second major public photographic gaffe for the POTUS in the past three days.  Three days ago, we had this:

    The man with whom the POTUS is shaking hands?  That would be Raul Castro.

    Yeah – that Raul Castro.  As in “Fidel’s brother”.

    That also happened in South Africa at an event connected to Mandela’s funeral.

    Wonderful.  Just freaking wonderful.