This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Category: Foreign Policy

  • ND:tBF Rattles His Pencil-Thin “Sabre” Again

    According to South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, North Korea has completed preparations for it’s 4th nuclear test.  The test could be conducted it “at any moment”.

    Kim also indicated that it was possible that North Korean preparations are a bluff.  North Korea has been threatening for weeks to conduct another nuclear test in protest of what it calls US and South Korean “hostility”, along with international condemnation, of it’s recent missile test activities.

    South Korea threatened “serious consequences” should North Korea conduct another nuclear test.  Those consequences were not specified.

    Tensions on the Korean peninsula have risen in recent months.  Last week, results of a Joint US-ROK investigation into drone activity in South Korea were released.  The investigation included that 3 drones found in South Korea in March and April were in fact North Korean surveillance missions.

    Rhetoric from both Koreas these days is getting pretty damn heated and nasty, too.  North Korean leadership has recently turned very insulting and racist in its public statements, while South Korean leadership has said North Korea “must disappear soon.”

    I guess ND:tBF was tired of Boko Haram getting all the recent press, and decided to pitch a public tantrum. (smile)

    Stay tuned.  This could get interesting.

    Oh, and the photo of ND:tBF here is priceless. (smile)

  • The Situation in the Ukraine? Maybe “Complex” Best Describes It

    It’s beginning to look like the situation in the Ukraine is best described as “complex”.

    Many have held that the pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are nothing but puppets, acting at Moscow’s direction.  While that could well be the case – and I’m sure Russia has a rather strong degree of influence on them – I’m not sure I agree that they’re “Russian puppets”.  If they are, they seem to be pulling their own strings.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin recently asked for east Ukrainian separatists to postpone the independence referendum scheduled for yesterday.  However, those pro-Russian separatists refused to do so.  They held the referendum anyway.  (Results were suspect – reportedly they were heavily in favor of “independence” for parts of the eastern Ukraine, in spite of recent poll results showing a majority in favor of remaining a part of the Ukraine.)

    It also doesn’t seem to be a simple “east/west” division within the Ukraine.  In some respects, the country is indeed more-or-less divided into a western-leaning part in the west and a Moscow-leaning part in the east.  That division is based both on politics and language (Ukrainian is the dominant language in the western part, while Russian is the majority language in the east).

    However, other indications indicate that the situation is far more confused.  Outside of the Crimea, legitimate and independent opinion polls show no clear preference for reunion with Russia.  Even in the east, recent polls show that well over 50% of the population wants to remain a part of the Ukraine rather than reunify with Russia.  But many (if not most) in the eastern Ukraine also say they don’t trust the new government in Kiev, either.  (The population desiring to remain independent and trusting the Kiev government is obviously much higher in the western, Ukrainian-speaking portions of the Ukraine.)

    Putin announced that he had ordered Russian troops to pull back from the eastern Ukrainian borders last Wednesday.  A Pentagon spokesman indicated there had been no indications of such a pullback the following day.

    Bottom line:  this situation in the Ukraine is indeed All Fouled Up (AFU).  Let’s all hope it doesn’t become FUBAR and end up being resolved by force.

  • NATO: Russia is now an adversary

    May Day in Red Square

    The Associated Press reports that at least one NATO official thinks that we should consider Russia an adversary on the world stage due to their recent annexation of the Crimea;

    “Clearly the Russians have declared NATO as an adversary, so we have to begin to view Russia no longer as a partner but as more of an adversary than a partner,” said Alexander Vershbow, the deputy secretary-general of NATO.

    In a question-and-answer session with a small group of reporters, Vershbow said Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its apparent manipulation of unrest in eastern Ukraine have fundamentally changed the NATO-Russia relationship.

    “In central Europe, clearly we have two different visions of what European security should be like,” Vershbow, a former U.S. diplomat and onetime Pentagon official, said. “We still would defend the sovereignty and freedom of choice of Russia’s neighbors, and Russia clearly is trying to re-impose hegemony and limit their sovereignty under the guise of a defense of the Russian world.”

    Seem hyperbolic to you? Well consider that today, the Detroit Free Press reports that Russia resurrected the Soviet-age May Day parade through Red Square, something that disappeared along with the Soviet Union back in 1991;

    “For the first time, stages will be filled, and 5,000 (labor) veterans will stand on the tribunes of Red Square,” Sergei Chernov, chairman of the Moscow Labor Union Federation, was quoted by ITAR-Tass as saying, ahead of the march, which is being seen as part of President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to stoke patriotic feelings following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

    As many as 2 million people were expected to be on hand for the event organized by Russian labor unions, which are mostly loyal to the Kremlin. In the end, about 100,000 people participated in the celebration, some holding signs saying: “Let’s go to Crimea for vacation” and “Putin is right.” Russian flags fluttered through the crowd.

    Odd that they chose to resurrect the traditional celebration of Communism, isn’t it?

  • John Kerry surprises the world that he’s an idiot

    John Kerry surprises the world that he’s an idiot

    john_kerry_arrested

    The other day, Josh Rogin, a reporter for the Daily Beast, sneaked into a meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Washington on Friday and recorded our Secretary of State, John Kerry, when he threatened that Israel will be considered “an apartheid state” if they don’t capitulate to the Palestinian terrorists, Hamas, and adopt a two-state solution. Of course, he didn’t mention that Hamas doesn’t recognize Israel as a legitimate state, so what would be the point.

    But, that commission meeting was supposed to be closed to reporters, according to Politico and if Rogan hadn’t sneaked into that meeting, we wouldn’t know what Kerry was saying about our foreign policy behind our backs. Well, Kerry has begun to back away from those comments. From the State Department website;

    I will not allow my commitment to Israel to be questioned by anyone, particularly for partisan, political purposes, so I want to be crystal clear about what I believe and what I don’t believe.

    First, Israel is a vibrant democracy and I do not believe, nor have I ever stated, publicly or privately, that Israel is an apartheid state or that it intends to become one. Anyone who knows anything about me knows that without a shred of doubt.

    Second, I have been around long enough to also know the power of words to create a misimpression, even when unintentional, and if I could rewind the tape, I would have chosen a different word to describe my firm belief that the only way in the long term to have a Jewish state and two nations and two peoples living side by side in peace and security is through a two state solution.

    Yeah, well, you can’t rewind the tape, Horseface. You said what you said and we got a glimpse of what you really think about the only democracy in the Middle East. So, some Senators, specifically Ted Cruz, are now calling for Kerry’s resignation;

    The Texas GOP senator said he read Kerry’s comments with “great sadness” but that those type of remarks are precisely why he voted against the former Massachusetts senator’s nomination last year.

    Yeah, but how many Republican Senators knew that Kerry was an irrational ideologue and confirmed his appointment anyway? They blocked John Bolton’s appointment as ambassador to the United Nations, but confirmed Kerry? Why is everyone so surprised that Kerry went off the rails? He’s been off the rails since 1971. Cruz is right that he shouldn’t have been confirmed in the first place, but the damage is done.

  • NATO observers detained in Ukraine

    NATO observers detained in Ukraine

    The Associated Press reports that two NATO observers have been detained in the eastern Ukraine and declared spies by the pro-Russian government there;

    Vyacheslav Ponomarev, self-proclaimed people’s mayor of Slovyansk, described the detained observers as “captives” and said that they were officers from NATO member states.

    “As we found maps on them containing information about the location of our checkpoints, we get the impression that they are officers carrying out a certain spying mission,” Ponomarev said.

    The German-led, eight-member team was traveling under the auspices of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe when they were detained. Germany’s Defense Ministry said it had had lost contact with the team, which it said also included five Ukrainians.

    So, this is going well. Speaking of going well, The Washington Times reports that the Obama Administration is planning a new round of sanctions targeting the Russians for their actions in the Ukraine, you know, because the first two rounds of sanctions worked so well;

    Tony Blinken, deputy national security adviser at the White House, said Sunday that the administration is placing a new round of sanctions on Russia.

    “We have to be deliberate about it,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “There are lot of things going on around him, people who matter to him, who will be affected by these sanctions, but more than that it’s the Russian economy.”

    Mr. Blinken also said he believes public sentiment among Russians will soon turn against the Ukraine, now that the nationalism that immediately followed the invasion has waned.

  • Boots on the ground in Poland

    ROS sends us a link from the Washington Post which reports that this week, Poland and the US will announce the deployment of US troops to Poland in response to Russia’s movements in the Ukraine.

    But the defense minister also said that any immediate NATO response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, while important, matter less than a long-term shift in the defense postures of Europe and America. The United States, having announced a “pivot” to Asia, needs to “re-pivot” to Europe, he said, and European countries that have cut back on defense spending need to reverse the trends.

    “The idea until recently was that there were no more threats in Europe and no need for a U.S. presence in Europe any more,” Siemoniak said, speaking through an interpreter. “Events show that what is needed is a re-pivot, and that Europe was safe and secure because America was in Europe.”

    How likely is such a reversal on defense spending? Siemoniak said there was widespread support at a recent meeting of European defense ministers. “Now they’ll go back to their presidents, prime ministers and ministers of finance, and this will stop being easy,” he admitted. “But the impetus is very strong.”

    I can think of worse places to station US troops than Poland, but they’re kind of missing the biggest counter-measure. This administration needs to go back and start talking about the missile defense shield for eastern Europe once again. Obviously, that’s what keeps Putin awake at night. He laughs at sanctions placed on his minions, but a missile shield would bring him to the table. But this is the administration that thought that the troops arming themselves in a combat zone would send the wrong message, so I don’t think they have enough testicles between them to do what actually needs to be done.

    Troops in Poland will essentially defenseless without tanks, by the way, and tanks are few and far between in Europe these days. Without tanks, US troops will be little more than a political tripwire which would trigger sternly-worded letters and more pointless sanctions.

  • NATO beefs up forces near Ukraine

    NATO beefs up forces near Ukraine

    In the Stars & Stripes, it’s reported that NATO is letting the world know that after weeks of diddling, they’re deploying more forces to the area around the eastern Ukraine.

    “We will have more planes in the air, more ships on the water, and more readiness on the land,” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters after a meeting of the North Atlantic Council.

    Among the measures to be taken include an intensification of NATO air policing missions over the Baltic region and more allied ships bound for the Baltic Sea, eastern Mediterranean and other regions as required, Rasmussen said. However, he made no mention of sending additional ships to the Black Sea, where Russia has the bulk of its fleet.

    The good news is that they’re leaning forward with staff, too, so there will be enough cooks to ruin the broth. My only question is what exactl are they deploying, since the Pentagon, in another Stars & Stripes link claims that, because of sequestration, they can no longer guarantee our national security;

    “If sequestration-level cuts persist, our forces will assume substantial additional risks in certain missions and will continue to face significant readiness and modernization challenges,” the report said.

    “Overall, sequester-level cuts would result in a military that is too small to fully meet the requirements of our strategy, thereby significantly increasing national security risks both in the short- and long-term,” according to a Pentagon statement that accompanied the report’s release.

    So, I’m sure the news of NATO taking this seriously has Vlad shaking in his boots. NBC News, in a link sent by Pinto Nag, reports that the Russians have rolled about 40,000 troops to it’s border with Ukraine, I wonder how many NATO will send. The Ukrainians are gearing up for an operation they’re calling “anti-terrorist” and they aren’t giving NBC full access with their cameras;

  • More Twists and Turns in the Ukraine

    As Alice said:  “Curiouser and curiouser!”

    Fox News is reporting that a small column of armored vehicles sporting a Russian flag and troops in camouflage uniforms has been spotted in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk.   At least some of the troops claim to be members of the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade that had decided to change sides.

    The Ukrainian defense ministry was reportedly contacted, but declined comment.  But there have been other reports of some Ukrainian forces switching sides in the recent troubles.

    Pro-Russian protestors were also reported to have taken over the mayor’s office in the regional capital of Donetsk.

    I certainly hope cool heads prevail here.  Otherwise, this could indeed turn ugly – quickly.