Now that he’s no longer in office, it appears that the former Deputy Director of the CIA – Michael Morell – has decided to make some money as an author. He’s written a book about his career called The Great War of Our Time. As you might guess from the title, it focuses largely on post-9/11 events.
Here’s what he had to say about the “Arab Spring”. It explains quite a bit, actually.
“We thought and told policy-makers that this outburst of popular revolt would damage al-Qaeda by undermining the group’s narrative. [Instead], the Arab Spring was a boon to Islamic extremists across both the Middle East and North Africa. From a counterterrorism perspective, the Arab Spring had turned to winter.”
Yeah, that explains – at least in part – why we sat on our hands and watched while longstanding allies went down the tubes. But it doesn’t explain why we “screwed the pooch” so badly on that call.
I understand quite well that intel is not an exact science. But historically, whenever an authoritarian regime has collapsed, a temporary power vacuum is created. If there’s not someone immediately around to pick up the pieces, things get chaotic.
Terrorist organizations do rather well in chaotic situations. So I kinda wonder why we didn’t foresee the real possibility that the Arab Spring might create a chaotic situation that al Qaeda and its ideological brethren could exploit.
Maybe it was as simple as a case of “telling the boss what he wanted to hear”. After all, when the boss makes it clear they only want to hear news with which they agree . . . well, that’s what they’ll get, true or not.
That kinda seems to me to have been the case some 35+ years ago in Iran. Maybe that’s what happened here too.
The Washington Post has a reasonably good article about the guy’s book, and briefly covers a few other things he talks about in it as well. If you have a few spare minutes, the article might be worth a read.




