This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Author: Hondo

  • Yer Latest “Good Economic News”

    Well, the economic news for August is now out.  Short version:  the economy is still in the freaking toilet.

    For the third consecutive month, the US labor participation rate remained at 62.6%.  That means only 62.6% (the actual number, to 6 figures, calculates to 62.5518%) of the US civilian labor force is actually working or actively looking for work.

    This is a 38-year low – for the third straight month.  Prior to the last 3 months, the last time the US labor participation rate was this low or lower was October 1977.  Then, it was 62.4%.

    Yes, that does indeed read October 1977 – as in “during the worst of the Carter years”.

    It’s true that the “official unemployment rate” fell slightly last month, from 5.2% to 5.1%.  But that measure is absolutely worthless, because it tells you nothing about the underlying economic reality.  Here’s why.

    U3 – the “official unemployment rate” – is calculated using only those who are “actively looking for work” but who are unable to find work.  “Actively looking for work” is defined as looking for work within the last 4 weeks.  However, if someone has gotten completely discouraged and is no longer even looking for work, they’re not counted.  But they still exist.  And at some point in the future, they’ll be looking for work again.

    U3 is such a p!ss-poor measure that it’s even possible for this to cause the “official” unemployment rate to drop while you’re losing jobs overall.  I’ve provided a short example at the end to show how this can occur.

    That appears to be precisely what’s been going on for the past several years.  The US labor participation rate has gone down by 3.1% since January 2009.  That means a huge number of Americans simply aren’t even bothering to look for work that should be looking.  If the labor participation rate were the same today as it was in January 2009, an additional 7.78 million Americans would be in the labor force.

    Today’s US civilian labor force totals over 251 million.  Just for “fun”, let’s calculate what the “official” unemployment rate would be today if we had January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    In January 2009, the US labor participation rate was 65.7%.  If that were the case today, the US civilian labor force would be approximately 164,970,000. (Since the US labor participation rate today is only 62.6%, the civilian labor force today is only about 157,065,000.)

    However, today only about 149,055,000 Americans have jobs.  That means if we had a labor participation rate equal to that of January 2009, we’d have about 15,915,000 unemployed people who were actively looking for work today.

    Doing the math gives an unemployment rate of 9.64+% if we had the January 2009 labor participation rate of 65.7%. Since “official” unemployment in January 2009 was 7.8%, we’d need at least 4.5 million more jobs than exist today to get back to January 2009 economic conditions – and nearly 8 million more to achieve a 5.1% unemployment rate at January 2009’s labor participation rate.

    Oh, and we’re all also taking it in the proverbial shorts regarding purchasing power, too.  Per that wonderful bastion of conservatism called the New York Times, real wages (e.g., adjusted for inflation) have dropped since January 2009 in all earnings quintiles – with the lowest-earning quintile seeing the largest real decline.

    Recovery?  What  freaking recovery? So far, there hasn’t been one.  All we’ve seen is stagnation, along with people becoming discouraged to the point of giving up.  Actual economic recovery?  Um. no.

    It’s been more than 6 and a half years since January 2009.  Are we ever going to see any real economic progress?

    . . . 

    Example Showing Loss of Jobs AND a Decline in “Official” Unemployment

    This simple example assumes no retirements and no new entrants into the job market during the two months in question.  In real world calculations, they’re considered – those are handled by adding new entrants and subtracting retirements, but the example is simpler and easier to follow if we omit those.  FWIW:  since the population is growing, there are typically more new entrants than retirements each month.  In the real world, new job creation must exceed the difference between new entrants and retirements or the unemployment rate will go up.

    First month

    These are the numbers at the beginning of the first month.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000

    Number with jobs:  900,000

    Labor Force:  100,000 + 900,000 = 1,000,000

    Unemployment rate:  100,000  / (100,000 + 900,000) = 10.0%

    Second month

    At the beginning of the second month, 25,000 jobs are cut.  However,  50,000 of the previous month’s “officially” unemployed people got fed up and quit looking for work 5 weeks ago – so they’re no longer counted.  The 25,000 who lost their jobs immediately start looking for new work.

    Number unemployed and looking for work:  100,000 (previous month) – 50,000 (quit looking)  + 25,000 (lost jobs, started looking)  =  75,000

    Number with jobs:   875,000

    Labor force:  75,000 + 875,000 = 950,000 (those who quit looking are no longer counted)

    Unemployment rate:  75,000 / ( 75,000 + 875,000) = 7.89%

     

    So, there was a net loss of 25,000 jobs in that month, but because enough people got fed up and quit looking for work  the “official” unemployment rate  dropped by 2.1+%.  Truly a great measure of economic conditions, eh?

     

  • Wanna See ALL of Clintoon’s “Private” Email? Come Up With $500k and Maybe You Can.

    Gee, what a surprise.  We’re talking a private server, operated for a long time in an open environment and possibly without any effective information security controls.  What could possibly go wrong?

    Exposed! Libya Security Briefs, Algeria Hostage Info & More — Hacker Threatens To Sell Hillary Clinton’s ENTIRE UNRELEASED Private Emails For $500K

    My question is: if some unidentified hacker managed to get access and download all of that . . . who else did?

     

  • The Latest ISIS Barbarity


    Before and after pictures of the Temple of Bel, Palmyra, Syria

    Remember the Buddhas of Bamiyan? You know, that World Heritage Site containing ancient statues of Buddah in central Afghanistan that was destroyed by the Taliban in 2001 because they found the statues “offensive” to Islam?

    Anyone wanna guess what ISIS recently did? Yep – the same thing.

    This time it was the Temple of Bel in Palmyra, Syria that was deemed “offensive” to Islam and destroyed. Last month, the temple building and some of its close colonnade were blown to bits by ISIS/ISIL/whatever that goat-fornicating band of barbaric Islamic extremists is calling themselves today.

    Other ancient sites at Palmyra were also damaged or destroyed. This includes the destruction of the Temple of Baalshamin, which like the Buddhas of Bamiyan had been designated a World Heritage Site.

    These are hardly the only sites of historical or archaeological importance destroyed by ISIS/ISIL/whatever. The Wikipedia article on the subject gives a reasonably good rundown.

    CNN has an article giving specifics concerning these barbaric bastards’ latest crimes. If you care about history, it’s sickening.

  • Yer “Private” Email Update

    Here’s the latest update on the Clintoon email server brouhaha.

    • Number of classified emails found on that “private” server? Now approaching 200 – 188 (125 + 63), to be precise.

    • How did that classified email get there?   Good question. Apparently, it  either “magically” moved between air-gapped systems or was deliberately moved to or created on State Department unclassified systems without proper markings.

    • But the State Department IT staff knew about Clintoon’s private server and gave their OK, right? In a word: no.

    • Oh and that private email server? It appears to have been on the same network – and maybe the same physical machine – as the Clinton Foundation email server.  Compromise one, you compromise both – and does anyone really think that the Clinton Foundation wasn’t high-profile enough to be a hacker target?   In any case, it’s a good bet that the network admins would have had access to both to some degree.

    • Some of the email on that server was, shall we say, “interesting” DoS business. One email apparently included a discussion of impeaching a sitting SCOTUS justice.

    Finally, in unrelated email news: a Federal judge has ruled that the IRS cannot refuse to produce White House emails relating to individual tax returns under the FOIA by refusing to say whether or not the records even exist. The IRS was apparently doing exactly that for FOIA requests relating to the IRS nonprofit scandal headed up by a lady named Lois Lerner.

     

    With apologies to the late Dezi Arnez, in his “Ricky Ricardo” role:  “Lois, Hill’ry – ladies, looks like you both got some ‘splainin’ to do!”

  • Another Two Are Home

    DPAA has identified and accounted for the following formerly-missing US military personnel.

    From Korea

    • SGT Christopher Y. Vars, E Company, 9th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Infantry Division, US Army, was lost on 11/29/1950 in North Korea. He was accounted for on 8/13/2015.

    From Vietnam

    • 1st Lt Stanley G. Johnson, Marine Medium Helicopter Squadron 364, Marine Aircraft Group 36, 1st Marine Aircraft Wing, USMC, was lost on 12/3/1965 in Vietnam. He was accounted for on 8/5/2015.

    You’re no longer missing, my elder brothers-in-arms. Our apologies that it took so long.

    Rest in peace now. You’re home.

    . . .

    Over 73,000 US personnel remain unaccounted for from World War II; over 7,800 US personnel remain unaccounted for from the Korean War; and over 1,600 remain unaccounted for in Southeast Asia (SEA). Comparison of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from recovered remains against mtDNA from a matrilineal descendant can assist in making a positive ID for unidentified remains that have already been recovered, or which may be recovered in the future.

    TAH reader HMCS(FMF) noted in comments elsewhere that DPAA’s web site now has what appears to be a decent “Contact Us” page. The page doesn’t have instructions concerning who can and cannot submit a mtDNA sample or how to submit one, but the POCs listed there may be able to point you in the correct direction if you’re interested. If you think you might possibly qualify, please contact those POCs for further information.

    If it turns out you qualify to submit a mtDNA sample, please arrange to submit one. By doing that you just might help identify the remains of a US service member who’s been repatriated but not yet been identified – as well as a relative of yours, however distant. Or you may help to identify remains to be recovered in the future.

    Everybody deserves a proper burial. That’s especially true for those who gave their all while serving this nation.

  • Rest In Peace, Forgotten Angel

    Rest In Peace, Forgotten Angel

    In 1921 a child was born in the Belgian Congo. The child was a girl; her name was Augusta Chiwy.  She was the daughter of a Belgian veterinarian and his wife, who was native Congolese.

    At age 9, Chiwy moved to Belgium with her family – to Bastogne, her father’s hometown. In 1940, she turned 19. She went to the town of Leuven, and studied nursing.

    She was living in Belgium on 16 December 1944. She returned to Bastogne to be with her family during the Chiristmas holidays.

    Some would say that wasn’t the best choice she could have made given later circumstances. However, a number of US GIs would disagree.

    We all know what happened at Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge. However, what’s not as well known is what happened in one of their medical stations – specifically, that of the 20th Armored Infantry Battalion, 10th Armored Division.

    That aid station was commanded by John Prior. It was critically short of medical personnel.

    Ms. Chiwy had been attending wounded civilian and military personnel with her uncle, a Belgian doctor. However, on 21 December she and a friend, Renée Lemaire, volunteered to serve at the 20th Armored Infantry’s aid station. She treated numerous wounded, and reportedly wore the US Army’s uniform and assisted in retrieving wounded from the field.

    Because of her race, some US soldiers were reluctant to allow Chiwy to provide them treatment. Indeed, Army regulations of the time actually forbid treatment of white soldiers by black nurses. (Yeah, that’s pretty stupid – but 1944 was a different, more prejudiced time.) The aid station commander put a stop to that nonsense; he told any troops who objected that Chiwy was a volunteer, and that their choices were “You either let her treat you or you die.”

    On 24 December, a German 500lb bomb hit the aid station. Chiwey and her friend were both working there at the time.

    Lemaire was killed; so were 30 wounded troops. Lemaire became widely known afterwards as the “Angel of Bastogne”.

    Chiwy was working with Lemaire in the same building, but was blown through a wall by the force of the explosion vice being killed. She was not seriously hurt. She returned to duty and continued to serve in the Battalion’s aid station until the Siege of Bastogne was lifted.

    It’s estimated that Chiwy’s care was instrumental in saving the lives of more than 100 US soldiers.

    Later, Chiwy continued her career in nursing. She worked at a hospital specializing in spinal injuries. She married a Belgian soldier. They had two children.

    Chiwy was reluctant to speak of her wartime experiences. She was thought by many who knew of her wartime service to have died in Bastogne. While researching a related project, British historian Martin King heard of her.

    He located her in a nursing home IVO Brussels. After extensive cross-checking with Prior’s wartime diaries, King confirmed that she was indeed the same lady who’d served with him at Bastogne.

    In 2011, the Army presented Chiwy the Department of the Army Civilian Award for Humanitarian Service. Earlier that year, she had been knighted by Belgium’s King Albert II.

    Augusta Chiwy died on 23 August 2015, aged 94. She was laid to rest this past Saturday. I’m guessing she was indeed in heaven well before the Devil knew she was dead.

    Rest in peace, angel. You certainly deserve that.

     

    Sources:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/26/world/europe/augusta-chiwy-forgotten-wartime-nurse-dies-at-94.html

    http://www.stripes.com/news/army-honors-wwii-nurse-for-aiding-u-s-troops-during-battle-of-the-bulge-1.163301

    http://www.newser.com/article/04abf43f14ea45e3bff7bdcc2342392b/belgium-lays-to-rest-heroic-nurse-who-saved-countless-american-lives-in-battle-of-the-bulge.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augusta_Chiwy

    http://www.syracuse.com/kirst/index.ssf/2015/08/augusta_chiwy_dies_legendary_nurse_helped_syracuse_doctor_tend_wounded_at_the_bu.html

    A documentary film about Chiwy based on King’s research and efforts to find her can be viewed on YouTube.

  • ND:tBF Fires More Senior Officials

    Well, the Dork of NorK – AKA Emmentaler-Boi, “Fatboy Kim”, and “ND:tBF” – is in the news again.

    Since last week, North and South Korea have reached an agreement to reduce tensions on their DMZ. Those tensions had led to a recent exchange of artillery fire across the DMZ.

    North Korea expressed “regret” at the wounding of two South Korean soldiers by a landmine (almost certainly planted by North Korea, but unacknowledged by the North). In turn, South Korea stopped loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts across the DMZ that it had resumed recently.

    This output reportedly “pleased” ‘Lil Kim. Accordingly, he showed his approval by firing several senior North Korean defense officials.

    Specifically, he fired several members of North Korea’s Central Military Commission. That body had handled the recent confrontation with South Korea.

    Apparently Emmentaler-Boi was “displeased” because the situation didn’t turn out as expected. I guess he thought the ROK government would cower or grovel instead of fighting back when the North lobbed a shell or two across the DMZ.  So he fired those who handled the confrontation on his behalf.

    Either that, or he was totally clueless beforehand that his military planned something that damn near started a war, and was p!ssed when he found out what had happened. Choose which of the two you want to believe.  I’m opting for him using the fired Central Military Commission people as scapegoats – with possibly a bit of political payback/”internal show of strength”/put his own guys in key places added.  But I could be wrong.

    No word yet on when the fired officials’ executions will be held. There’s also no indication what new, novel, and inhumane method will be used this time.

  • Well, That Didn’t Take Very Long

    I’m guessing any number of people are saying or thinking “Told you so” right about now.

    ‘Sister Wives’ family cites gay marriage ruling in polygamy case

    Sheesh.  I don’t think I wanna know what’s coming next.