This ain't Hell, but you can see it from here

Author: Hondo

  • Acting Ukrainian President: We Won’t Stop Crimean Secession

    The Acting President of the Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov, has stated that the Ukraine will not use military force to block Crimean secession.  The ostensible reason?  Doing so “would expose the eastern border and Ukraine would not be protected.”

    Well, duh.  Ya think?

    As one might expect, Turchynov also cast aspersions on the upcoming Crimean referendum, stating: “What they call the referendum will not happen in Crimea but in the offices of the Kremlin.”

    Dunno about that, Mr. Acting President.  Since the majority of the Crimea’s population (58+%) is ethnically Russian and less than 25% is ethnically Ukrainian, I kinda think a completely fair referendum in the Crimea on reuniting with Russia has a damn good chance of passing – and likely by a fairly large margin.

    Still, it’s nice to see that someone involved recognizes reality when they see it.  In this case, I’m not convinced the current US Administration yet does.

     

     

     

  • Explaining Russia’s Conduct

    In past articles, I’ve addressed part of what IMO motivates Russia today in the Crimea.  Short version:  Russia arguably – and IMO, actually does – have superior historical, demographic, and cultural claims to the Crimea vis-à-vis the Ukraine.  The Ukraine today has the Crimea solely due to historical accident; namely, because they received it as “gift” in 1954 from the USSR’s Supreme Soviet.  Russia wants it back.

    That said, there’s almost certainly another contributing factor to Russia’s more assertive behavior today.  Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs Peter Brookes details that briefly but quite eloquently here.  It’s worth a read.

    Russia’s history is that they respect strength.  When faced with weakness, they assert themselves – sometimes quite aggressively.

    Ignoring that historical truth is not particularly wise.

  • Today’s Crimea Update

    It doesn’t exactly look like Russia is planning on backing down regarding returning the Crimea to Russian control.

    Friday evening, Russian forces disarmed Ukrainian troops at a missile base, then occupied it.  The Ukrainian forces were reportedly surrounded and told to give up their weapons.   The Ukrainian troops present apparently complied with the ultimatum.

    Russian forces also took over the main hospital in the Crimean capital of Simferopol.  They were reportedly joined in doing so by personnel from pro-Russian local militias.

    Prospects for a negotiated settlement don’t appear too hopeful.  The Russian government still recognizes the government of deposed Ukrainian President Yanukovych as the legitimate government for the Ukraine.  Western nations generally recognize the interim Ukrainian government which ousted Yanukovych as the legitimate Ukrainian government.

    Further:  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has indicated that current US proposals for resolving the crisis are not acceptable, telling Russian President Putin that those proposals “do not suit us very much”.  Putin has also now publicly backed the proposed referendum regarding Crimea’s separation from the Ukraine and return to Russian control scheduled for 16 March.

    Finally, NATO has taken the step of beginning AWACS surveillance flights over Poland and Romania to monitor the situation.  What good – if any – those flights will do remains to be seen.

    Looks like things could get rather interesting in about a week.

  • Sinclair Pleads – to Some Charges

    We’ve featured BG Jeffrey A. Sinclair multiple times here at TAH; past articles are listed at the end of this one.  But it’s been a while.

    Well, it looks like the “good general” didn’t exactly have a good day in court recently.  Yesterday, he pleaded guilty to multiple charges against him – including adultery, possession of pornography, attempted fraternization, solicitation of nude photographs from subordinates, and attempting to impede an investigation.

    Yeah, I’d say he abused the hell out of his rank and position, and was preying on subordinates.  Bigtime.

    For those crimes, he’s facing a possible sentence of full forfeitures, Dismissal (for an officer, that’s the equivalent of a Dishonorable Discharge), and up to 15 years in prison.  In exchange for his guilty pleas, prosecutors apparently agreed to drop two other charges against Sinclair.

    Sinclair’s still fighting the most serious other charges against him – including charges of forcible sodomy and having sex in public places.   He’s also accused of using his rank/position to prolong his illicit affair with his primary accuser through threats and coercion.  If convicted on the remaining charges, he faces up to life in prison.

    Preying on subordinates and attempting to subvert lawful investigations isn’t exactly the kind of conduct we expect – and demand – of senior leaders, “General”.  I hope they dismiss your unethical, unworthy ass and send you to Leavenworth for at least a few years.

    Thanks to TAH reader SJ for the link to the Reuters story above.

     

    Previous TAH Sinclair articles:

    Officers and weird sex

    A Sinclair Update

    Another Sinclair Update

    Sinclair’s PR Site

    The Latest on Sinclair

    The Latest Sinclair Update

  • Plus ça change . . . .

    . . . plus c’est la même chose.

    It sure does rhyme: US reaction to Moscow aggression echoes Carter’s in 1980

    Title kinda says it all.

    On a related subject: the following two articles might be of help in understanding the background of the current Crimean situation.

    The Transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine – this article was ostensibly written shortly after the transfer of the Crimea from the Russian SFR to the Ukranian SFR in 1954.

    This one map helps explain Ukraine’s protests – the article provides a fairly good overview of the political, linguistic, and ethnic situation in today’s Ukraine.

  • Hate to Say “Told You So” . . . .

    . . . but yeah, according to Reuters it’s certainly beginning to look like I did.  It was actually pretty easy to predict.

    SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) – Crimea’s parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

    I have to say I’m rather torn here.  On principle, I hate seeing aggression rewarded.  However,  IMO Russia frankly has a better historical claim to the Crimea than does the Ukraine.  That’s also the only region of what is today the Ukraine where the majority of the population is ethnically Russian. And if the population of the Crimea wants to leave the Ukraine and rejoin Russia, well, there is that pesky little thing called “the principle of self-determination . . . . ”

    From my perspective, whether we like the outcome or not – Putin’s played his cards well.  And I don’t see much we can do one way or another.

    I wonder what the folks in the State Department – and the rest of the current Administration – will do now?

  • One Lost in Training

    Regrettably, we’ve lost another of our brothers-in-arms in training.  This time it’s the Navy that grieves.

    An F/A-18C crashed on 1 March 2014 during a training exercise in western Nevada.  The pilot was killed.

    The deceased’s name is being withheld, per DoD policy, for 24 hours following notification of next-of-kin.

    Flying is a risky business, even when no one is shooting at you.  The same is true to a greater or lesser degree for the other military specialties as well.

    May the dead rest now in peace, and may God comfort their surviving friends and family.

  • And in the “Global Warming” Department . . . .


    Great Lakes Approaching 100% Ice Cover – For The First Time On Record

    Just remember, folks:  it’s mankind’s fault, and it’s due to global warming!

    Yeah, right.

     

    Edited to add:  FWIW, there’s a largish snowstorm hitting the USA today and tomorrow. It’s expected to drop up to a foot of snow across an area extending from Saint Louis to Philadelphia.

    Last time I checked, the calendar says it’s freaking March.